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Auteur: Bas Heijink

Technisch analist Bas Heijink schrijft iedere dag een update over de AEX. Senior Technisch Analist Bas Heijink houdt zich binnen de ING Investment Office van ING Bank bezig met Technische Analyse. Heijink let vooral op de kansen die hij ziet in de markt om op korte termijn een goed absoluut rendement te behalen. H...

Meer over Bas Heijink

Recente artikelen van Bas Heijink

  1. jun '17 TA Arcelor Mittal: Buy the dip 12
  2. jun '17 TA: Bedankt! 411
  3. jun '17 TA: Van lang naar kort 425

Reacties

4.669 Posts
Pagina: «« 1 ... 229 230 231 232 233 234 »» | Laatste | Omlaag ↓
  1. [verwijderd] 11 augustus 2013 21:46
    quote:

    Gaaaapppp schreef op 11 augustus 2013 21:38:

    [...]

    Het is niet de bedoeling dat je je wandelstok op z'n kop gebruikt. De wandelstok kan dan wel eens te diep gaan.
    ZUCHT......................

    Heb ik weer :-W

    Nah daar zit ik dan weer pfffffffffff weer een illusie armer!!!

    Nu snap ik wat de familie bedoelt als ze het over mij hebben
    en mijn ruim inkomen WHOEHAAHHHAAAAAAAAAAAUUUUUUUWWWWWWWWWWW
  2. [verwijderd] 11 augustus 2013 22:01
    Nou vooruit dan. Omdat jullie er allemaal naar vragen. Chart voor USDCHF. Zoals afgelopen vrijdag geschreven heb ik dit paartje op mijn watchlist als long. Waarom?

    Na uren lange analyse. Vele methodieken te hebben toegepast. Talloze lijnen te hebben getrokken. Is hier het resultaat.

    Ik wacht nog even op een groene bevestiging. De shadows aan hte bovenkant bevallen mij niet zo.

    www.tradingview.com/x/VVdZSgl1/
  3. [verwijderd] 11 augustus 2013 22:15
    Dun draadje idd. Zo kwam ik net dit draadje tegen:

    Looking at the backdrop for capital markets beyond S&P 500’s record highs, conditions looks highly suspect. This past week, volume on the S&P 500 was the lowest seen on a non-holiday period since the markets were closed after the September 2001 terrorist attacks in New York – an extension of a steady trend. Leverage used at the NYSE has moved to record highs. Exposure to exceptionally risky assets has grown. Retail interest in riskier assets has ramped up while ‘professional’ exposure has fled at the fastest pace in years. Meanwhile, volatility indicators show extreme complacency while rates of return are near record lows… - JK

    finance.yahoo.com/news/dollar-could-p...

    quote:

    fredjeans schreef op 11 augustus 2013 20:09:

    [...]

    Dit weekend gebruikt om alles eens kritisch tegen het licht te houden en kom ik inderdaad tot de conclusie Short AEX long USA

    Maar het gaat wel langs een heel dun draadje pfffffff
    ik zou willen dat het al vrijdag was ;-))

  4. [verwijderd] 11 augustus 2013 22:31
    quote:

    De Groene Techneut schreef op 11 augustus 2013 22:15:

    Dun draadje idd. Zo kwam ik net dit draadje tegen:

    Looking at the backdrop for capital markets beyond S&P 500’s record highs, conditions looks highly suspect. This past week, volume on the S&P 500 was the lowest seen on a non-holiday period since the markets were closed after the September 2001 terrorist attacks in New York – an extension of a steady trend. Leverage used at the NYSE has moved to record highs. Exposure to exceptionally risky assets has grown. Retail interest in riskier assets has ramped up while ‘professional’ exposure has fled at the fastest pace in years. Meanwhile, volatility indicators show extreme complacency while rates of return are near record lows… - JK

    finance.yahoo.com/news/dollar-could-p...

    [...]
    Ach weet je DGT
    ja ik denk dat jij het wel weet :-P

    Als je op zoek gaat naar je eigen gelijk valt er altijd wel iets te vinden
    of je word zo afgeleid van je gelijk, dat het je weer parten speelt

    Ik maak mijn berekening en trek lijntjes en probeer me voor de rest af te sluiten. Ben toch een vreemde eend en wil dat ook graag blijven ;-)

    Hier nog een leuk artikel

    This past week we saw some very light selling of the S&P 500 on relatively weak volume. Part of the weakness is seasonal as the summer months, especially the third quarter, tend to be a little bit lighter in terms of volume. A bigger concern is valuation. As I have indicated previously, the market is no longer cheap based on historic P/E multiples or price to book multiples. Right now, the market is trading at roughly 16.3 times trailing earnings and 2.49 times book value.

    While the market is no longer cheap this does not necessarily mean we are due for a sell-off. The current valuation of the market is in-line with the average trailing P/E multiple of the market since 1980. If, however, we look at the period of time from 1900 through 1980 we find a much lower P/E multiple persisted.

    So, whether the market is truly expensive depends on what period of time you use as a benchmark valuation level. The benchmark valuation level – what the market should trade at as a multiple of earnings on average - is also highly dependent on interest rates. Periods when interest rates are low tend to have higher P/E multiples than periods when interest rates are high. With my expectation that interest rates will be heading up, my best guess is that P/E multiples have plateaued. For the market to move substantially higher from current levels, earnings in aggregate will have to re-accelerate.

    For that earnings growth to materialize, we need the economy to recover to pre-recession growth levels. That means we need GDP to come in slightly above 3% on an annualized bases. My belief is that the economy will pick-up as the global economy continues its recovery. As a result, my anticipation is that the market should continue to advance just not at the rate it has through the end of July. Effectively, the market is getting expensive because it is anticipating the economic recovery to continue. It is not getting expensive because investors are becoming euphoric with optimism. As a result, I remain bullish with respect to the market.

    However, I would not at all be surprised to see some selling in the market based on a negative macro event or two in the immediate future. From December 2000 until December 2012, the S&P 500 rose from 1320 to 1426. Effectively, over a twelve year period, the market went up only around 8% and generated a 35% total return when incorporating dividends. Since the end of 2012, the market has gone up over 20% from 1426 to around 1700.

    In other words, the market appreciated more in the past seven months than it did over the past twelve years. This illustrates the basic problem with market timing. If you missed the past six months of returns- perhaps because you became a little bit nervous near the end of 2012 with the Greece crisis – you lost 70% of the total returns the equity market generated over the period. An investor who tried to time their market exposure based on P/E multiples would have sold equities around mid-2009 when P/E multiples shot up because earnings were incredibly depressed, and would have done even worse than the investor who panicked based on the recent problems in Europe.

    Given the previous decade of lackluster equity returns, it is very natural for investors to start to look for some sort of pull back given the strength we have seen this year. This inclination could lead to the wrong course of action. The market’s movements over time are independent. As strange as it seems, the fact the market went up 20% over the past seven months has no bearing or predictive ability on what will happen next. As a result, the best course of action is to continue to bet on the base rate and stay invested in the market.

    Statistically, over time, the market tends to generate a return that is roughly 6% above the risk free rate. Over long periods of time - the length of time necessary to realize any substantial gains in the market - the correct course of action is to remain long equities. You buy equities and you hold them through recessions, depressions, wars and political instability. You ignore the news; you don’t react to it. You don’t try to predict it; you don’t let yourself think you are smarter than the market. You bet on the base rate.

    The “aha” moments where the market is incorrectly pricing stocks in aggregate are few and far between. If the market is more expensive than normal, there usually is a reason. If the market is cheaper than normal there usually is a reason. What economic history teaches us, in terms of market timing, is that during periods of extreme pessimism, and periods of extreme optimism, expectations about future growth are generally wrong. We have just come through a period of extreme pessimism. We are not yet in a period of extreme optimism. When people at cocktail parties start talking about stocks and how much money they are making in their online trading accounts, you will know we are in a period of extreme optimism. Until that time, a slightly higher than average P/E multiple is nothing to get too worried about.

    We are due for some weakness as the trees don’t grow to the sky. A long-term investor should use this weakness as a buying opportunity. As long as the economic recovery remains on track this market should trend higher.

    Dus lekker slapen sweety ;-))
  5. [verwijderd] 11 augustus 2013 22:33
    Ja. Short entry 1. High risk profile. Als je minder risico wilt lopen kan je beter wachten op bevestiging. Maandag morgen kan een (fake) move omhoog komen.

    Dit is mijn week chart. Netjes onder het dalende lijn. Als maandag E/D dit lijn breekt met een spike (en dus weer terug onder het lijn komt), is er een leuke bevestiging om short te gaan. Zo'n spike up kan een teken zijn van groet spelers die kopers in de markt lokken, zodat ze zelf kunnen dumpen.

    www.tradingview.com/i/0dZ8muIg

    Dit is mijn alternatieve analyse op USD Index.

    www.tradingview.com/i/t2z4VMSe

    quote:

    M.B. schreef op 11 augustus 2013 22:25:

    Heb jij positie in e/d dgt?
  6. [verwijderd] 11 augustus 2013 22:34
    Nee hoor. Ik sta long Dow zoals ik al schreef gisteren. Het artikel gaat dus tegen mijn positie in.
    Heb er overigens niet naar gezocht, maar kwam 'm gewoon net tegen.

    quote:

    fredjeans schreef op 11 augustus 2013 22:31:

    [...]

    Ach weet je DGT
    ja ik denk dat jij het wel weet :-P

    Als je op zoek gaat naar je eigen gelijk valt er altijd wel iets te vinden
    of je word zo afgeleid van je gelijk, dat het je weer parten speelt

4.669 Posts
Pagina: «« 1 ... 229 230 231 232 233 234 »» | Laatste |Omhoog ↑

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