De V is terug in de research rapporten. Help het hopen. Morgan Stanley voorziet sneller economisch herstel dan verwacht.
The global economy is in a new expansion cycle and output will return to pre-coronavirus crisis levels by the fourth quarter, according to Morgan Stanley economists.
“We have greater confidence in our call for a V-shaped recovery, given recent upside surprises in growth data and policy action,” economists led by Chetan Ahya wrote in a mid-year outlook research note on June 14.
Predicting a “sharp but short” recession, the economists said they expect global GDP growth will trough at -8.6% year on year in the second quarter and recover to 3.0% by the first quarter of 2021.
Morgan Stanley noted three reasons for why the recession will be short:
- This is not an endogenous shock triggered by huge imbalances
- Deleveraging pressures will be more moderate
- Policy support has been decisive, sizable and will be effective in boosting the recovery
Het rapport zegt helaas niets over de winsten. Wel heeft het huis tipjes:
- Favor U.S. and European stocks over emerging markets; while EM stocks would be a “normal” early-cycle trade, the strategists don’t see it working well this time
- Favor U.S. small-cap equities, cyclicals and European value shares
- Treasury yields are expected to rise, with the 10-year seen just above 1% by year-end
- The dollar should weaken as global growth rebounds and Federal Reserve easing outpaces that elsewhere. The euro will gain thanks in part to a new recovery fund
- In corporate credit, investors are being paid well to move down modestly in quality Copper should do well based on a strong China recovery, while the strategists are more cautious on oil and aluminum