Morgan Stanley: V-herstel onderweg

De V is terug in de research rapporten. Help het hopen. Morgan Stanley voorziet sneller economisch herstel dan verwacht.

Citaat:

The global economy is in a new expansion cycle and output will return to pre-coronavirus crisis levels by the fourth quarter, according to Morgan Stanley economists.

“We have greater confidence in our call for a V-shaped recovery, given recent upside surprises in growth data and policy action,” economists led by Chetan Ahya wrote in a mid-year outlook research note on June 14.

Predicting a “sharp but short” recession, the economists said they expect global GDP growth will trough at -8.6% year on year in the second quarter and recover to 3.0% by the first quarter of 2021.

Morgan Stanley noted three reasons for why the recession will be short:

• This is not an endogenous shock triggered by huge imbalances
• Deleveraging pressures will be more moderate
• Policy support has been decisive, sizable and will be effective in boosting the recovery

Het rapport zegt helaas niets over de winsten. Wel heeft het huis tipjes:

• Favor U.S. and European stocks over emerging markets; while EM stocks would be a “normal” early-cycle trade, the strategists don’t see it working well this time
• Favor U.S. small-cap equities, cyclicals and European value shares
• Treasury yields are expected to rise, with the 10-year seen just above 1% by year-end
• The dollar should weaken as global growth rebounds and Federal Reserve easing outpaces that elsewhere. The euro will gain thanks in part to a new recovery fund
• In corporate credit, investors are being paid well to move down modestly in quality Copper should do well based on a strong China recovery, while the strategists are more cautious on oil and aluminum

Morgan Stanley economists double down on V-shape global recovery https://t.co/p80kZ7klCG

— Bloomberg (@business) June 15, 2020