Update 16:00 uur: Consumentenvertrouwen VS
Het Amerikaanse consumentenvertrouwen is een stuk hoger dan verwacht:
Update 15:00 uur: Case Shiller
De Case Shiller huizenprijzenindex is iets lager dan verwacht:
Update 15:00 uur: OPEC en olie
Iran wil niet meedoen en de olieprijzen zeggen de mazzel!
Update 14:45 uur: Banken NL
Het is wel eens slechter gegaan met de Nederlandse banken inderdaad...
Update 14:00 uur: Inflatie CPI
De Duitse inflatie CPI is volgens verwachting:
Update 12:50 uur: Lucas Bols
Nieuwe aandeelhouder bij Lucas Bols. FD heeft er een verhaal over:
Update 11:40 uur: KBC over uitzenders
Rapport van KBC in de mail over de uitzenders. Ik copypaste de stukje over Randstad en Brunel wel even:
Randstad (16% top-line, 25% REBITA exposure, BUY € 53.0).
Randstad faces pressure from the fall-out of public payrolling in 2016, with an annual revenue and REBITA impact of € 140m and € 8-10m resp. Management admits it underestimated timing and impact of the measure, and efforts to shift business to private payrolling have not been sufficient.
Randstad has limited exposure to the new ZZP legislation. Underlying, Randstad’s staffing business is growing slightly below market (was 6% in 3Q16), while its Professionals turned to -4% on very hard comps. When correcting for some timing effects, Professionals grew 4%.
On an organic basis, revenue was up 2% pwd y/y in 3Q16, and we expect it to remain at 2% in 4Q16. The REBITA margin was 5.8% in 3Q16, down 30bps y/y due to public payrolling fall-out and pricing pressure in the bigger tenders, but the latter is easing gradually.
Brunel (15% top-line, 28% EBIT exposure, BUY € 20.5).
The Dutch business has been Brunel’s best performing segment in 2015, accelerating towards the end of the year. The company continues to invest in commercial expansion, which resulted in growth for the IT and Legal segments. The Finance (~30% of revenues) is currently under general sector pressure. The biggest segment Engineering (~40%) records soft y/y growth.
Brunel had around 300 ZZP freelance employees, who will have difficulties securing a self-employed statute under the new law. Per fall-out of 100 employees per month, € 1m revenue is at stake. In August, 200 of these ZZPs had left Brunel. We expect the total FY16 revenue fall-out of around € 18m.
The effective implementation of the ZZP legislation is postponed to 1 January 2018, and conditions will be applied less strictly than Brunel previously assessed. The company will hence try to recuperate some lost business. We anticipate Brunel to record -5% growth in 4Q16 (one working day less vs. last year), down from -4% in 3Q16. The y/y fall-out due to freelancers is expected to stabilise around € -6m.
Update 11:00 uur: S&P 500 versus goud
Deze vinden de goudbeleggers onder ons minder leuk om te zien.
Update 09:10 uur: Aalberts
KBC over Aalberts. De bank denkt dat Aalberts niet alleen overnames doet, maar ook gaat desinvesteren.
Update 09:00 uur: Spanje
De Spaanse inflatie is iets hoger dan verwacht:
Update 08:00 uur: OlieaDe spanning stijgt...
Spanning stijgt...
Update 08:00 uur: Adviezen
Goedemorgen, hier zijn de analistenadviezen voor vandaag:
- Heineken: naar 83 van 88 euro - HSBC
- Unilever: naar 45 van 46 euro - Berenberg
- NN: naar 31 van 30 euro (market-perform) - Bernstein
- Eurocommercial: naar neutral van sell en naar 35 van 37 euro - UBS
- Unibail-Rodamco: naar 220 van 245 euro - UBS
- Ahold Delhaize: naar 21,5 van 22 euro (neutral) - Goldman Sachs
- Ahold Delhaize: naar underperform - Macquarie
- ArcelorMittal: naar $12 van $10 (outperform) - Credit Suisse