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www.icis.com/explore/resources/news/2... Podcast over urea door ICIS (20 januari)
BultiesBrothers schreef op 21 januari 2021 00:26 :
www.icis.com/explore/resources/news/2... Podcast over urea door ICIS (20 januari)
Fertiglobe transactie vandaag van 345$/t in Egypte, aldus de podcast
Bedankt voor het delen BB (https://seekingalpha.com/article/4399778-cvr-partners-higher-nitrogen-fertilizer-prices-may-lead-to-cash-distribution-this-year). Een uitstekende analyse!! Ik denk dat met name OCI hiervan gaat profiteren. De resultaten in Q1 zalen heel erg goed worden (gamechanger).
Mooie berichten,wel vreemd dat de sector op de beurs in de VS,en vooral CF alweer 3 dollar heeft ingeleverd sinds 2 wkn terug,Metanex maakt het helemaal bont die heeft alweer 10$ ingeleverd sinds de top een paar weken geleden.
Klopt, maar fundamenteel gaat het goed met de sector. En OCI gaat hiervan extra profiteren (1. is zwaar afgestraft en achtergebleven en 2. OCI profiteert extra van aantrekkende volumes en hogere prijzen). Ik blijf gewoon rustig zitten! Wat in het vat zit...
Hans2021 schreef op 20 januari 2021 12:18 :
Ik vrees dat de koers onder de 18 euro komt.
Gister verkocht op 18,06 euro. Hoop goedkoper in te kopen.
Hans2021 schreef op 21 januari 2021 09:40 :
[...]Gister verkocht op 18,06 euro. Hoop goedkoper in te kopen.
Op welke koers zou je weer kopen?
Snap deze daling ook niet tov de rest vd beurs. Qua urea en methanol prijzen is er gisteren weinig veranderd. Zelfs licht gestegen
BultiesBrothers schreef op 21 januari 2021 10:01 :
Snap deze daling ook niet tov de rest vd beurs. Qua urea en methanol prijzen is er gisteren weinig veranderd. Zelfs licht gestegen
Vergeet niet dat er nog een shorter actief is. Met relatief kleine aantallen is het makkelijker lager te zetten. Daarnaast jumpen anderen ook er inmiddels uit omdat het kwakkelen is. Dat doet iets met de mens als je ergens anders nog kansen ziet. Ik blijf voorlopig nog zitten. Ik geloof er wel in dat de stijging van OCI echt aanstaande is en dat het dan vrij snel weer boven de 20 zal staan waarbij het mij niet zou verbazen dat het vrij vlot door gaat naar 22.
Anton8080 schreef op 21 januari 2021 09:58 :
[...]
Op welke koers zou je weer kopen?
Waarschijnlijk stapt hij weer in rond 18.50, dat is meestal zo...
Dr wordt weer lekker gedumpt... Weet niet wel signaal uit de sector er toe leidt dat we zo makkelijk weer dalen.
BultiesBrothers schreef op 21 januari 2021 15:56 :
Dr wordt weer lekker gedumpt... Weet niet wel signaal uit de sector er toe leidt dat we zo makkelijk weer dalen.
Signalen uit de sector lijken mij positief. Het lijkt er meer op dat in dit soort dagen OCI weer over dezelfde kam wordt geschoren als bedrijven in luchtvaart en vastgoed die aantoonbaar last hebben van verlengde lockdowns. OCI heeft daar nauwelijks last van maar gaat toch mee naar beneden.....
Ruval schreef op 21 januari 2021 16:03 :
[...]
Signalen uit de sector lijken mij positief.
Het lijkt er meer op dat in dit soort dagen OCI weer over dezelfde kam wordt geschoren als bedrijven in luchtvaart en vastgoed die aantoonbaar last hebben van verlengde lockdowns. OCI heeft daar nauwelijks last van maar gaat toch mee naar beneden.....
En waarschijnlijk bedrijven met hoge schulden. Die vormen ook vaak een groep apart op bepaalde dagen...
daylow eruit zo te zien. Toch apart.
FOCUS-Facing green push on farm, fertilizer makers look to sea for growth By Rod Nickel and Victoria Klesty WINNIPEG, Manitoba/OSLO, Jan 20 (Reuters) - Two of the world's biggest fertilizer producers, CF Industries Holdings Inc and Yara International Asa, are seeking to cash in on the green energy transition by reconfiguring ammonia plants in the United States and Norway to produce clean energy to power ships. The consumption of oil for transportation is one of the top contributors to global greenhouse gas emissions that cause climate change, and fertilizer producers join a growing list of companies adjusting their business models to profit from a future lower-carbon economy. By altering the production process for ammonia normally used for fertilizer, the companies told Reuters they can produce hydrogen for fuel or a form of carbon-free ammonia used either as a carrier for hydrogen or as a marine fuel to power cargo and even cruise ships. The shift may improve their standing with environment-minded investors as fertilizer emissions attract greater government scrutiny in North America and Europe. But the green fuels are not yet commercial and will require significant investment to turn a profit - a reality that has the world's largest fertilizer producer, Canada's Nutrien Ltd , staying out of the space for now. Oslo-based Yara is seeking government subsidies to proceed. Still, renewable ammonia represents a 6 billion-euro ($7.25 billion) opportunity for fertilizer producers by 2030, according to Citibank, based on 20 million tonnes of annual sales globally for clean power and shipping fuel compared with virtually none now. Global ammonia sales currently amount to 180 million tonnes. "We absolutely could be known more for being a clean energy company than an ag supplier," CF Chief Executive Tony Will said in an interview, speaking of long-term prospects for the Illinois-based company. 'EVERYBODY IS LOOKING FOR SOLUTIONS' Fertilizer plants separate hydrogen from natural gas and combine it with nitrogen taken from the air to make ammonia, which farmers inject into soil to maximize crop growth. Production generates carbon emissions that CF says it can avoid by extracting hydrogen instead from water charged with electricity. It can then combine that hydrogen with nitrogen to make green ammonia, which the marine industry is testing as fuel. CF is in discussions about selling green ammonia to a Japanese power consortium including Mitsubishi Corp <8058.T>, but buyers will break most of it down to pure hydrogen for use in transportation sectors. "This is a market that easily can exceed what the total ammonia (fertilizer) market is," Will said. "We're going to grow into that over the next 20-25 years." Adopting green ammonia or green hydrogen to replace crude oil-based fuel would help the International Maritime Organization (IMO) meet a target to reduce emissions, and is suited to both short- and long-haul vessels. Methanol and liquefied natural gas (LNG) are other clean alternatives. "Everybody is looking for solutions and I think the jury is still out," said Tore Longva, alternative fuels expert at Oslo-based maritime advisor DNV GL. "Of all the fuels, (green ammonia) is probably the one that we are slightly more optimistic on, but it's by no means a given." Ammonia remains toxic and corrosive, requiring special handling on ships, Longva said. Furthermore, combusting ammonia may produce nitrous oxide, a greenhouse gas, that ships would need to neutralize to prevent emissions, said Faig Abbasov, shipping director for European Federation for Transport and Environment, an umbrella group of non-governmental organizations. Fuel cells are another potential marine use for ammonia and hydrogen. Still, Abbasov sees ammonia and hydrogen as the greenest and most practical shipping fuel alternatives, and cheaper than methanol. Development of ammonia and hydrogen for shipping fuel holds decarbonization potential but is at the pilot stage for small vessels, while LNG and methanol are in use on ocean-going ships, an IMO spokeswoman said. South Korea's Daewoo Shipbuilding & Marine Engineering <042660.KS>, one of the world's biggest shipbuilders, plans to commercialize super-large container ships powered by ammonia by 2025, a spokesman said. THE PLANS CF is reconfiguring its Donaldsonville, Louisiana, plant to produce green ammonia. It plans to spend $100 million initially to enable the plant to produce by 2023, about 18,000 tonnes. By 2026, production across its network could reach 450,000 tonnes, and 900,000 tonnes by 2028, Will said. The hydrogen it will sell may have nearly 10 times the margin of ammonia fertilizer, according to CF, making the 75-year-old farm company's newest product its most profitable. Yara is developing a green ammonia project with power company Orsted in the Netherlands and also has green projects running in Australia and Norway. Unlike CF, Yara is seeking government subsidies because green ammonia costs could be 2-4 times higher than conventional production, said Terje Knutsen, Yara's head of Farming Solutions. "The technology behind this is not mature enough today," he said. Yara, which aims to cut all CO2 emissions from its 500,000 tonnes-a-year Porsgrunn ammonia plant in Norway, wants funding from the Norwegian government to switch the plant's production process to electricity by 2026. Norway already supports hydrogen and green ammonia through a tax exemption on electricity used to produce hydrogen, Minister of Climate and Environment Sveinung Rotevatn said in an email. "Hydrogen and hydrogen-based solutions, such as ammonia, will be important in reducing greenhouse gas emissions in the future," Rotevatn said. Global ammonia production would need to multiply five-fold if it is to replace all oil-based shipping fuel, Abbasov said. But given the abundance of nitrogen in the air, potential supply is almost unlimited if production costs drop, he said. Nutrien is looking into green ammonia, but sees high costs and insufficient prices as major obstacles, Chief Executive Chuck Magro said. Industry efforts underway to produce small volumes of green ammonia are largely "window-dressing," said Nutrien Executive Vice-President, Nitrogen, Raef Sully. "The reason (for Nutrien) to look at it is to position ourselves for when people are willing to pay," Sully said. "The problem is we're just right at the start of development." (Reporting by Rod Nickel in Winnipeg, Manitoba and Victoria Klesty in Oslo; additional reporting by Jonathan Saul in London; Editing by Caroline Stauffer and Marguerita Choy)
BultiesBrothers schreef op 20 januari 2021 21:13 :
www.google.com/amp/s/seekingalpha.com... Prima artikel, geeft een veel betere onderbouwing van de prijs dan het IEX premiumartikel.
Het koersverloop afgelopen 2 dagen lijkt nogal kolder ten aanzien van het prijsvorming op de urea markt. Over de gehele linie vandaag weer gestegen...en gasprijs lijkt ook redelijk stabiel tot dalend te zijn. T blijft lastig, maar het is wel over de gehele sector. Tech is blijkbaar even wat meer interessant
BultiesBrothers schreef op 21 januari 2021 23:05 :
Het koersverloop afgelopen 2 dagen lijkt nogal kolder ten aanzien van het prijsvorming op de urea markt. Over de gehele linie vandaag weer gestegen...en gasprijs lijkt ook redelijk stabiel tot dalend te zijn. T blijft lastig, maar het is wel over de gehele sector. Tech is blijkbaar even wat meer interessant
Zeker, weer mooi omhoog. Prijsstrijging sluit goed aan bij dat artikel: China produceert minder tegen hogere prijzen a.g.v. hoge prijzen kolen en gas.
Het enige wat zou kunnen zijn is dat het mogelijk is dat het wereldwijde transport op sommige plekken op z'n gat ligt door oprukkende corona besmettingen.
UREA (GRANULAR) FOB US GULF FUTURES - SETTLEMENTS JAN 21 UNCH 297.50 0 475 FEB 21 +10.50 330.00 15 690 MAR 21 +11.50 331.00 45 900 APR 21 +11.50 326.50 0 250 MAY 21 +7.50 305.00 15 75 JUN 21 +7.50 285.00 0 45
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