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BultiesBrothers schreef op 11 mei 2021 15:51 :
Is dit een signaal van de sector rotatie? Immers geld moet renderen en grote partijen laten het liever niet op de bank staan. Dus geld van tech naar defensief/cyclisch?
Het lijkt er wel op.......zeer sterk signaal ook van CF opent 52,90 en nu alweer 55,35 ook NTR laat zich niet uit het veld slaan en gaat gewoon weer hoger,de angst in de markt voor oplopende inflatie is zeker gegrond,doordat vrijwel alle grondstoffen fors hoger gaan het laatste half jaar,dat is nu net het verdienmodel voor de fertilizers,de markt gaat dit nu inzien!
Zakt meteen weer terug. Volgens mij gaan we een tijdje op en neer tussen 22 en 23 euro
De druk om meer akkers in te zaaien wereldwijd zal toenemen omdat anders de agrarische producten niet meer te betalen zijn. Bloomberg Soybean Futures Touch $16 in Chicago, Highest Since 2012 Bre Bradham Tue, May 11, 2021, 5:49 PM In this article: ADM Archer-Daniels Midland 66.78 -1.26% (Bloomberg) -- Soybean futures touched $16 on Tuesday for the first time since 2012 as concerns mount over a supply crunch. Surging Chinese demand and bad weather in key global-growing areas are stoking fears of grain shortages. China’s expanding hog herds need soybean meal, so the Asian nation has been buying massive amounts of the oilseed off global markets. The economic recovery from the pandemic is driving demand for agricultural goods generally, draining stockpiles and fueling food-inflation concerns. Restaurants are reopening amid easing Covid-19 restrictions need vegetable oils for cooking, and the renewable diesel industry is expanding. All of that is ramping up demand for the bean’s oil. On Monday, Archer-Daniels-Midland said it was building a new $350 million soy crushing facility. A U.S. report due Wednesday will give an updated look at expectations for global grain inventories. Soybeans for July delivery rose by as much as 2.4% to $16.255 a bushel in Chicago.
stap per stap ik denk terug naar 18 level er zal profit taken zijn na de run up trend en d
Ook weer een verbetering. 11.05.2021 20:07 OCI N.V. -- Moody's changes outlook on OCI N.V.'s rating to stable, affirms Ba2 rating
waregem schreef op 11 mei 2021 21:14 :
stap per stap ik denk terug naar 18 level er zal profit taken zijn na de run up trend en d
Wat klets je nou weer.
waregem schreef op 11 mei 2021 21:14 :
stap per stap ik denk terug naar 18 level er zal profit taken zijn na de run up trend en d
Ik zie dat echt anders. Vorige week is aangetoond dat € 22-23 een fundamenteel gerechtvaardigde koers is op basis van huidige stand van zaken / resultaten van OCI. Zowel vandaag als vrijdag ligt de koers er heel goed bij. Rode koersen maar OCI per saldo drie dagen neutraal. Het thema inflatie wordt m.i. groter gemaakt dan wat er daadwerkelijk speelt. En mocht dit doorzetten dan zal de sectorrotatie van tech naar waarde versnellen. Belangstelling voor OCI zal verder toenemen. Beleggen is altijd omgeven door risico en volatiliteit (“climbing a wall of worries”). Kansen voor koopjesjagers dus ongetwijfeld ook belangstelling voor OCI. Lekker blijven zitten, niet gek laten maken en uiteindelijk geduld fors laten belonen
Export PDF Print Related Issuers OCI N.V. Related Research The document is not a part of your current subscription. Credit Opinion: OCI N.V.: Update following rating affirmation The document is not a part of your current subscription. Covenant Quality Assessment: OCI N.V.: Covenant Quality Post-Sale Snapshot:$400m 4.625% Secured Notes due 2025/€400m 3.625% Secured Notes due 2025 Rating Action: Moody's affirms OCI's Ba2 rating, negative outlook, assigns Ba3 rating to proposed issuance Announcement of Periodic Review: Moody's announces completion of a periodic review of ratings of OCI N.V. Announcement of Periodic Review: Moody's announces completion of a periodic review of ratings of OCI N.V. Rating Action: Moody's changes outlook on OCI N.V.'s rating to stable, affirms Ba2 rating 11 May 2021 Frankfurt am Main, May 11, 2021 -- Moody's Investors Service ("Moody's") has today changed the outlook on OCI N.V.'s (OCI) rating to stable from previously negative. Concurrently Moody's affirmed OCI's Ba2 corporate family rating (CFR) and the Ba2-PD probability of default rating (PDR). Moody's has also affirmed the Ba3 rating on the backed senior secured notes borrowed by OCI N.V.. RATINGS RATIONALE The stabilization of OCI's rating outlook reflects Moody's expectations that OCI´s EBITDA and cash generation will recover strongly in 2021 and that free cash flow (FCF) generated will be applied to reduce gross debt. This will result in improved credit metrics which are adequate for a Ba2 rating and result in a capital structure better placed to withstand the cyclicality inherent to OCI's end-markets Moody's expects that OCI's EBITDA generation in 2021 will benefit from improved average pricing for nitrogen fertilizer and methanol through 2021 due to strong demand from China, higher crop prices, higher expected planted acreage, increasing industrial demand and some production curtailments. Furthermore, Moody's forecast incorporates the expectation that production volumes for methanol and ammonia in 2021 will increase due to the absence of larger turnarounds and consistently high operating rates across OCI's platform. Based on these assumptions, Moody's expects that OCI will generate Moody's adjusted EBITDA in excess of $1.3 billion in 2021 resulting in a Moody's adjusted gross leverage of below 3.5x. The favorable price environment will enable the company to generate meaningful FCF increasing its capacity to reduce gross debt. In 2021, Moody's forecast incorporates a gross debt reduction of at least $500 million. In January 2021, OCI already repaid around $147 million of bonds issued at its subsidiary Iowa Fertilizer Company (IFCO). In combination with scheduled debt amortizations this has resulted in a year to date gross debt reduction of around $220 million during Q1 2021. Expected debt reduction in 2021 will put the company's capital structure on a more solid footing to withstand the cyclicality inherent to OCI's business model. The company targets a net leverage (company definition) of around 2x through the cycle (3x as of end March 2021). The Ba2 rating also takes into account the group's complex capital structure which might constrain its ability to apply FCF to debt reduction. Also, cash flow generated within the Fertiglobe perimeter (which is 58% owned and fully consolidated; Fertiglobe accounts for around 50% of OCI's consolidated EBITDA per March 2021) will not be available to serve debt at the OCI N.V. level or at other operating subsidiaries. Cash from the Fertiglobe perimeter can only be upstreamed to the OCI N.V. level via dividend payments, which results in some cash leakage to minority shareholders. However, Moody's adjusted debt/EBITDA also does not take into account the value of OCI's 50% participation in Natgasoline LLC (B1, neg). LIQUIDTY PROFILE OCI's liquidity profile is solid. As of March 2021, the company had $770 million of cash on balance sheet and around $500 million of availability under its $850 million senior secured revolving credit facility as of December 2020. In addition, the company's liquidity profile benefits from around $195 million of committed revolving credit facilities at local subsidiaries, which are currently undrawn and available to cater liquidity needs of respective subsidiaries. In combination with expected FCF generation those sources should be sufficient to cover mandatory debt repayments, swings in working capital and capital expenditures. The revolving credit facilities contain financial covenants, which Moody's expects to be met at all times. STRUCTURAL CONSIDERATIONS The one notch differential between the Ba2 CFR of OCI N.V., which is the ultimate holding company of the group, and the Ba3 rating assigned to the senior secured notes issued by OCI N.V. reflects: 1) the structural subordination of OCI N.V.'s creditors to those of its US based operating subsidiary Iowa Fertilizer Company and North African operating subsidiaries, whose financial debt is largely secured against respective assets; and 2) the relatively weak guarantor package supporting OCI's Senior Secured Notes. RATIONALE FOR THE STABLE OUTLOOK The stable outlook on OCI's rating reflects Moody's expectation that gross leverage will remain within the guidance for a Ba2 rating in the next 18-24 months and that the company will able to generate meaningful positive FCF and reduce gross debt. FACTORS THAT COULD LEAD TO AN UPGRADE OR DOWNGRADE OF THE RATINGS Moody's could upgrade OCI's corporate family rating if the company strengthens its capital structure, such that debt/EBITDA falls below 3x and RCF/debt increases above 20% on a sustained basis. Furthermore, we would expect a track record of positive FCF generation, with the FCF/debt metric in the high-single-digit percentages. Moody's could downgrade OCI's rating if the company fails to reduce Moody
Dit stuk pak ik er uit omdat ik verrast bent,de netto opbrengst van de beursgang van Fertiglobe ,daar kunnen niet de schulden van OCI NV mee afgelost worden ? iemand die het beter begrijpt? De netto opbrengst van de IPO van Fertiglobe zou in de vorm van een dividend uitbetaald kunnen worden ? The Ba2 rating also takes into account the group's complex capital structure which might constrain its ability to apply FCF to debt reduction. Also, cash flow generated within the Fertiglobe perimeter (which is 58% owned and fully consolidated; Fertiglobe accounts for around 50% of OCI's consolidated EBITDA per March 2021) will not be available to serve debt at the OCI N.V. level or at other operating subsidiaries. Cash from the Fertiglobe perimeter can only be upstreamed to the OCI N.V. level via dividend payments, which results in some cash leakage to minority shareholders. However, Moody's adjusted debt/EBITDA also does not take into account the value of OCI's 50% participation in Natgasoline LLC (B1, neg).
jessebrown schreef op 11 mei 2021 22:06 :
Dit stuk pak ik er uit omdat ik verrast bent,de netto opbrengst van de beursgang van Fertiglobe ,daar kunnen niet de schulden van OCI NV mee afgelost worden ? iemand die het beter begrijpt? De netto opbrengst van de IPO van Fertiglobe zou in de vorm van een dividend uitbetaald kunnen worden ?
The Ba2 rating also takes into account the group's complex capital structure which might constrain its ability to apply FCF to debt reduction. Also, cash flow generated within the Fertiglobe perimeter (which is 58% owned and fully consolidated; Fertiglobe accounts for around 50% of OCI's consolidated EBITDA per March 2021) will not be available to serve debt at the OCI N.V. level or at other operating subsidiaries. Cash from the Fertiglobe perimeter can only be upstreamed to the OCI N.V. level via dividend payments, which results in some cash leakage to minority shareholders. However, Moody's adjusted debt/EBITDA also does not take into account the value of OCI's 50% participation in Natgasoline LLC (B1, neg).
Ik ben geen boekhouder en snap dit ook niet. Per saldo overigens positief rapport
FD Bartjens 16:52 Bill Gates' boedelscheiding aan het Damrak Bill en Melinda gaan scheiden. Hij verkoopt aandelen OCI, met verlies. Zij koopt ze.
Wat ik heb kunnen vinden is dat de OCI NV niet volledig eigenaar is van Sorfert (Algarije) en EBIC (egypte), respectievelijk 51% en 60%. Dus als Fertiglobe geld oplevert, vloeit (leakage) er ook nog wat weg naar de andere minderheidsaandeelhouders. Zie slide 26: www.oci.nl/media/1683/oci-nv_ndr-pres...
DeZwarteRidder schreef op 11 mei 2021 22:28 :
FD
Bartjens
16:52
Bill Gates' boedelscheiding aan het Damrak
Bill en Melinda gaan scheiden. Hij verkoopt aandelen OCI, met verlies. Zij koopt ze.
Bill heeft 12.2 (12,7% naar 0.5%) ingeleverd aan belang en Melinda is +17% gegaan op 3 mei. Waar tovert zijn ineens een extra belang van +4.8% vandaan? Heb nergens een order van 8.4 miljoen aandelen gezien...
www.afm.nl/nl-nl/professionals/regist... zie datum 5 mei. Is dit aandelenbonus of bijkoop moment voor alle heren en dame
www.afm.nl/nl-nl/professionals/regist... Zelfs Sawiris had nog geld liggen voor 17k stuks aandelen
BultiesBrothers schreef op 11 mei 2021 22:42 :
Wat ik heb kunnen vinden is dat de OCI NV niet volledig eigenaar is van Sorfert (Algarije) en EBIC (egypte), respectievelijk 51% en 60%. Dus als Fertiglobe geld oplevert, vloeit (leakage) er ook nog wat weg naar de andere minderheidsaandeelhouders.
Zie slide 26:
www.oci.nl/media/1683/oci-nv_ndr-pres... Ja inderdaad BB hoe meer je gaat spitten in de NV.OCI hoe meer je inzicht krijgt hoe complex het is,daarom noemt Moodys dit ook,maar de flinke upgrading is zeer positief. the group's complex capital structure
BultiesBrothers schreef op 11 mei 2021 22:42 :
Wat ik heb kunnen vinden is dat de OCI NV niet volledig eigenaar is van Sorfert (Algarije) en EBIC (egypte), respectievelijk 51% en 60%. Dus als Fertiglobe geld oplevert, vloeit (leakage) er ook nog wat weg naar de andere minderheidsaandeelhouders.
Zie slide 26:
www.oci.nl/media/1683/oci-nv_ndr-pres... Dat klopt niet: dat was de oude situatie. OCI heeft gewoon 58% van Fertiglobe.
Dat complex structure komt vast voort uit het idee zo min mogelijk belasting betalen ... haha
DeZwarteRidder schreef op 11 mei 2021 22:57 :
[...]
Dat klopt niet: dat was de oude situatie.
The second question was a bit more technical, if I may. Within your Middle East business, especially in Algeria, there is an arrangement where the minority holder in the Algerian JV is paid higher dividend than the proportionate share that they have in that business. How should we then think about the economic interest of OCI overall in the Fertiglobe? Because I think it's fair to say you have a share in Fertiglobe. But within your share, there are also minorities who might have higher economic increases given the structure of the dividend payments. Dit komt uit hun transcript van Q1..
BultiesBrothers schreef op 11 mei 2021 22:52 :
www.afm.nl/nl-nl/professionals/regist... Zelfs Sawiris had nog geld liggen voor 17k stuks aandelen
Ik denk dat de 17k stuks de boost moest zijn om fors hoger te gaan,met de zeer sterke cijfers want de aankondiging al weken geleden voor de IPO van fertiglobe (net daarvoor was het bestuur ook gaan kopen)heeft toen ook geen effect gehad en er is mij inziens al maanden met koers gespeeld, en nu ook weer het bericht van de Gates,achteraf allemaal troebel geweest.
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