De koffie met cake smaakt vanmiddag vast minder lekker en de toastjes met zalm na afloop blijven misschien wel onaangeroerd staan. Vanmiddag houdt Nutreco haar aandeelhoudersvergadering en moet vandaag toezien hoe de aandelenkoers 6% duikelt. Reden: het Noorse Marine Harvest heeft grootse zalmvoerplannen.
Let wel, het zijn plannen om zelf voedsel voor zalm te produceren. Het is nog niet definitief. Marine Harvest is nu nog Nutreco's grootste klant voor zalmvoedsel, maar loopt nu met het idee rond om er zelf jaarlijks 500.000 ton van te produceren. Hoe belangrijk dit is voor Nutreco, maken deze paar cijfers van SNS Securities van vanochtend duidelijk:
" Nutreco’s fish feed company Skretting is Marine’s Harvest most important supplier, fulfilling an estimated 60-65% of its feed need. In turn, Marine Harvest is Nutreco’s second-largest client accounting for fish feed sales of about EUR 280m, circa 6% of group sales and close to 20% of sales in the fish feed division. We estimate that Marine Harvest accounts for 7-8% of Nutreco’s group EBITA."
Analist Richard Withagen concludeert:
"The fact that Marine Harvest considers setting up its own feed company will not have a short-term effect on Nutreco, but could have important long-term effects. First, it would materially change the currently existing direct relationship between Skretting and Marine Harvest."
"Second, it means that additional feed capacity is introduced, putting prices under pressure across the global fish feed industry. Third, it puts into question the entry barriers of this market. For the time being, we maintain our Hold rating on Nutreco’s shares and our price target of EUR 50."
Rabo Securities is intussen ook door met een reactie. Dow Jones:
"Nutreco client Marine Harvest announced serious plans to consider establishing a salmon feed company with a capacity of 500,000 tons, which could potentially have a modest negative effect on Nutreco, according to Rabobank. If Marine Harvest were no longer a Nutreco client, Nutreco's EBIT would be hit by 5-7%, the brokerage adds."
"Rabo rates Nutreco at hold with a target of EUR60."