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Fertiliser costs 'to hit $1400 a tonne' (urea) next year: tip John EllicottJohn Ellicott 22 Oct 2021, 9:27 a.m. Cropping Growers may seek alternative fertilisers such as chicken, pig and feedlot or treated human waste manure. Growers may seek alternative fertilisers such as chicken, pig and feedlot or treated human waste manure. Aa It's the perfect storm of pressures that's seeing fertiliser prices go through the roof, putting pressure on growers to contemplate their next move. The major advice from pasture and cropping experts is, to borrow the maxim from the pandemic, to "test, test, test". That is, test soils before applying fertiliser to next year's crop and be all over variable rates needed in a paddock. Many in the industry believe urea prices could hit $1400-$1500 a tonne by next March. The strong advice is to consult with suppliers early on, according to NSW DPI Director of Pastures Mark Evans. He warned that soil testing at the right time leading into next year's crop was vital, and to avoid testing when there might be mineralisation of nitrogen in the soil after rain. James Dunlop, Business Development Manager at Pacific Fertiliser, says the price of fertiliser is volatile but there was obviously an upward price trend. "There is the potential for urea to hit $1400 per tonne if current supply restrictions persist," he said. "Product will be available next year, it's just what price it will hit," he said. Fertiliser prices can fall and rise rapidly, but the general consensus is a price rise going into next year. Fertiliser prices can fall and rise rapidly, but the general consensus is a price rise going into next year. A perfect storm of events had conspired to see fertiliser prices rise. The contraction of manufacturing in China, rising gas prices in Europe, COVID-19, restrictions on Chinese exports, high demand domestically and the rise in sea freight costs - had all added to a price squeeze. "Some may consider options such as an organic product if more readily available domestically," he said. Also read: Prices skyrocket, supply choked: perfect storm for fertiliser Also read: Fert markets watching potential China export slowdown "People will start to look at what is available and what to use many months out, and also consider all the elements that can affect a season. Some may consider using a natural product." "Prices have been on a continuous rise over the last six months with single super phosphate trading around the mid $300 in March / April and now trading above $500 port. MAP & DAPs trading around mid $700 in Q2 to now trading in the mid $1200s, and urea up from the high $500s to now above $1,300 / tonne ex-port." Some shipments of fertiliser have arrived recently but China may restrict further exports. Some shipments of fertiliser have arrived recently but China may restrict further exports. Mr Dunlop said Australia had some of the most fragile soils in the world and growers would have to consider appropriate fertiliser use for maximum benefit in their particular area. With good rainfall expected through this summer, next year's crop could be as big as this year and so fertiliser will be in high demand again. Meantime, ANZ has suggested this could see a fall in sheep and cattle prices next year due to a fall in interest in restocking, because of the fertiliser costs. The rapid rise in fertiliser prices could put downward pressure on Australia's record cattle and sheep prices, particularly if the price hike continues well into 2022, ANZ's latest Agri Commodity Report says. "The rise in fertiliser prices caused by a range of global events could have a number of ripple-on events to Australian farmers, and indirectly, to the local food supply chain," ANZ said. Michael Whitehead, ANZ's Head Food, Beverage and Agribusiness Insights said: "The causes of the current spike in fertiliser prices could potentially stay active for some time, particularly given past comparisons. "At the moment, global fertiliser prices have been pushed up partly due to the current high price of gas in Europe, which has caused some fertiliser manufacturers to either shut down or pass on the high input costs." "China's recent move to stop fertiliser exports until mid-2022 will further reduce the supply of fertiliser in world markets, exacerbating the upward pressure on prices, as farmers, suppliers and governments globally seek to ensure some supplies for the coming year." The last time the world saw a fertiliser price spike similar the current one was around 2007 to 2009, which was caused by a combination of surging demand driven by record global crop prices, as well as by China imposing high tariffs of fertiliser exports. Prices took between one and two years to return to their previous levels. Depending on the flow-on effect of these global rises to Australian fertiliser suppliers, this could see many farmers re-evaluating their plans for the next year, particularly in terms of sheep and cattle stocking rates, ANZ said. "Sheep and cattle producers may need to re-evaluate the impact high fertiliser costs will have on their bottom line, balancing up their forecasts for sheep, cattle and grain prices, versus increased input costs. It may well be that some livestock producers will choose to reduce their stocking rates, given the potential difference in pasture growth from reduced fertiliser application. "This could see an easing of re-stocker buying activity, which has been responsible for much of the high prices over the past two years, as livestock producers have sought to take advantage of ample grass through the good post-drought seasons, to rebuild their own herds and flocks, " Mr Whitehead said. This could ease the price pressure for meat processors, which has seen meat prices rise at export and domestic retail levels, however it could also slightly slow the gradual rebuild of Australia's stock numbers, as they continue to recover from the drought. "Looking further ahead, the fact that domestic fertiliser prices will increasingly be subject to heightened global volatility could see further changes in Australia. In addition to some local companies increasing their fertiliser production and storage capacity, it could also accelerate innovation in areas such as micro-application of fertilisers through agtech, as well as the development of more non-synthetic fertilisers."
DTN Retail Fertilizer Trends Urea Price Climbs 26% Since Mid-September, a $147-Per-Ton Jump 10/20/2021 | 5:00 AM CDT Katie Micik Dehlinger By , Farm Business Editor Urea cost $719 per ton on average during the second week of October, a 26% or $147 increase from last month. The nitrogen fertilizer is twice as expensive as it was last year. (DTN chart) MT. JULIET, Tenn. (DTN) -- The average retail price of three fertilizers increased by more than $100 per ton in the past month, according to prices tracked by DTN for the second week of October. Seven of the eight major fertilizers tracked by DTN took staggering jumps higher in that timeframe, and four now cost twice as much as last year. Leading the pack this week is urea, which saw its price increase 26%. For reference, DTN considers any price change of 5% or more to be significant. With an average price of $719/ton, urea is $147 per ton more expensive than it was in mid-September. The last time urea cost more than $700 per ton was from April to June 2012. The average retail price of potash was $710/ton, up 19% or $112 from last month. The last time it was this expensive was the first week of August 2009, according to DTN data. At 16% higher, the average price of UAN 28 is $442/ton. That's a $61/ton increase from last month. The only time it's been more expensive was the first week of November 2008, which was the first week DTN began reporting on prices. Anhydrous now costs an average of $873/ton, up $111 or 15% from last month. The last time the nitrogen fertilizer's price tag was this high was the third week of December 2012. DAP and UAN32 prices increased by 14% this week. At $798/ton, DAP is the most expensive it's been since the first week of December 2008. UAN32 cost $488/ton on average, the highest since late May 2012. Up 11%, MAP cost an average of $860/ton. That's $84 more expensive than mid-September, and the last time the phosphate fertilizer was this expensive was also the first week of December 2008. More Recommended for You The tortoise in this race is 10-34-0. It saw a 4% price increase to $654/ton. Its price was close to this level in spring 2015, but the last time it was higher was early August 2012. A farmer trying to buy potash today would pay 113% more than last year. UAN28 costs 112% more. Anhydrous and urea prices are roughly double what they were last year at 106% and 100%, respectively. UAN32 is 96% more expensive. MAP is 81% higher; DAP, 80%. 10-34-0 is 43% more expensive. With fertilizer prices nearing all-time highs, farmers are putting a lot of thought into next year's nutrient needs. Jeremy Flikkema, who farms near Lanark, Illinois, told DTN he has already purchased some of his fertilizer needs for the upcoming growing season, including anhydrous, phosphorus and potash to varying degrees. "The ammonia price is almost double last year," Flikkema said. "Right now, in-season pricing sounds like it is over $1,000 per ton locally." His contract for anhydrous is only good until the end of the year, and his local fertilizer retailer will not let him book any for next spring, he said. In addition to anhydrous, Flikkema said he typically applies some UAN32, but he can't get a price on this product right now. His retailer said they only have around 25% of their spring product needs booked, and they were having trouble getting offers from manufacturers for more. To adjust, he said he might have to use more anhydrous and less UAN solutions. It appears the price for UAN could be over $500/ton in the spring. "Between this large (price) increase and yields, a lot of people are looking at more beans," he said. DTN surveys more than 300 retailers, gathering roughly 1,700 fertilizer price bids, to compile the DTN Fertilizer Index each week. In addition to national averages, MyDTN subscribers can access the full DTN Fertilizer Index, which includes state averages, here: . Last week, farmers from Nebraska and Iowa shared updates on fertilizer availability and prices in their areas as DTN's data showed anhydrous prices climbing above $800/ton. You can read it here: . DRY Date Range DAP MAP POTASH UREA Oct 12-16 2020 445 475 332 359 Nov 9-13 2020 454 486 333 358 Dec 7-11 2020 456 510 348 361 Jan 4-8 2021 482 543 369 368 Feb 1-5 2021 554 601 389 429 Mar 1-5 2021 609 673 416 474 Mar 29-Apr 2 2021 618 697 429 502 Apr 26-30 2021 629 703 433 513 May 24-28 2021 652 709 443 523 Jun 21-25 2021 670 720 469 541 Jul 19-23 2021 695 750 543 553 Aug 16-20 2021 695 755 564 556 Sep 13-17 2021 702 776 598 572 Oct 11-15 2021 798 860 710 719 Liquid Date Range 10-34-0 ANHYD UAN28 UAN32 Oct 12-16 2020 457 424 209 249 Nov 9-13 2020 455 422 208 248 Dec 7-11 2020 464 429 210 252 Jan 4-8 2021 464 470 209 251 Feb 1-5 2021 502 507 239 272 Mar 1-5 2021 560 560 254 304 Mar 29-Apr 2 2021 599 685 340 377 Apr 26-30 2021 613 710 350 391 May 24-28 2021 619 719 361 407 Jun 21-25 2021 625 724 366 420 Jul 19-23 2021 632 736 365 419 Aug 16-20 2021 631 743 369 420 Sep 13-17 2021 632 762 381 428 Oct 11-15 2021 654 873 442 488 DTN Staff Reporter Russ Quinn contributed to this report.
BultiesBrothers schreef op 22 oktober 2021 23:01 :
www.bloombergquint.com/global-economi... Hoe moet dit aflopen? Niet normaal. Ik vrees dat we op hongersnood af stevenen. Wereld wijde actie is gewenst.
www.investing.com/commodities/methano... Ik denk dat de kwakkelende koers voornamelijk een reactie kan zijn op de methanolprijzen die in China aardig gedaald zijn afgelopen 2 week.
BultiesBrothers schreef op 23 oktober 2021 13:09 :
www.investing.com/commodities/methano... Ik denk dat de kwakkelende koers voornamelijk een reactie kan zijn op de methanolprijzen die in China aardig gedaald zijn afgelopen 2 week.
Op zich zou dat zeker kunnen inderdaad. Maar dit geldt toch ook voor concurrenten OCI die afgelopen weken wel goede performance laten zien, of heb ik dat mis?
Melamine prijs overigens weer 250 omhoog per 1 nov (zie website OCI)
BultiesBrothers schreef op 23 oktober 2021 13:09 :
www.investing.com/commodities/methano... Ik denk dat de kwakkelende koers voornamelijk een reactie kan zijn op de methanolprijzen die in China aardig gedaald zijn afgelopen 2 week.
Hiervoor geldt misschien hetzelfde als voor Urea; door exportverbod geldt een lagere prijs op Chinese markt.
Wat gaan we qua koers doen komende 2 weken? Volgende week vanwege start verhandelbaarheid aandelen Fertiglobe sluiten boven 26 euro? En de week daarna, vanwege de goede cijfers, sluiten boven de 27 euro?
Ruval schreef op 23 oktober 2021 17:56 :
[...]
Op zich zou dat zeker kunnen inderdaad. Maar dit geldt toch ook voor concurrenten OCI die afgelopen weken wel goede performance laten zien, of heb ik dat mis?
Methanex ook wat afgekomen sinds begin oktober
Just lucky schreef op 23 oktober 2021 18:35 :
Wat gaan we qua koers doen komende 2 weken? Volgende week vanwege start verhandelbaarheid aandelen Fertiglobe sluiten boven 26 euro? En de week daarna, vanwege de goede cijfers, sluiten boven de 27 euro?
Ik hoop dat ze gaan aankondigen dat er een flink dividend aan gaat komen. Grappig dat fertiglobe eerder met dividend komt dan oci ;p. Nu oci nog. Wat is hun doelstelling omtrent schuld in absolute termen? Ze hebben het over 2x .....
Just lucky schreef op 23 oktober 2021 18:35 :
Wat gaan we qua koers doen komende 2 weken? Volgende week vanwege start verhandelbaarheid aandelen Fertiglobe sluiten boven 26 euro? En de week daarna, vanwege de goede cijfers, sluiten boven de 27 euro?
Ik verwacht dat koers medio nov op € 30 staat. Cijfers gaan positief verrassen en schuld is bijna volledig verdampt….
Our gross debt came down by around $400 million this year, and we expect further reduction of gross debt leverage and the weighted average cost of debt over the course of the year. And we've shared with you our net target to drop the new net leverage of 2x by year-end 2021. Importantly, within a framework of strong commitment to disciplined capital allocation and as we have strengthened our balance sheet considerably, we expect that we will be able to start returning capital to shareholders from 2022 onwards, either in the form of dividends or in combination thereof with share buybacks. We see this as a very exciting development because we have not been in a position to do so since we have listed the company in the Netherlands in early 2013.
BultiesBrothers schreef op 23 oktober 2021 19:36 :
Our gross debt came down by around $400 million this year, and we expect further reduction of gross debt leverage and the weighted average cost of debt over the course of the year. And we've shared with you our net target to drop the new net leverage of 2x by year-end 2021. Importantly, within a framework of strong commitment to disciplined capital allocation and as we have strengthened our balance sheet considerably, we expect that we will be able to start returning capital to shareholders from 2022 onwards, either in the form of dividends or in combination thereof with share buybacks. We see this as a very exciting development because we have not been in a position to do so since we have listed the company in the Netherlands in early 2013.
Het management is altijd ‘excited’…. Nu de aandeelhouders van de free float nog….. Sorry voor mijn sceptische insteek. Ik word behoorlijk geïrriteerd van de koers ontwikkeling als ik niet oppas :-)
Ruval schreef op 23 oktober 2021 19:43 :
[...]
Het management is altijd ‘excited’…. Nu de aandeelhouders van de free float nog…..
Sorry voor mijn sceptische insteek. Ik word behoorlijk geïrriteerd van de koers ontwikkeling als ik niet oppas :-)
Tja. ik had ook verwacht dat we inmiddels alwel op 28 hadden gestaan vanwege IPO etc. Maar blijkbaar is die 800 miljoen die ze ophalen met de ipo niet bijzonder genoeg. Maar ik mag hopen dat we in december wel 30+ staan. Daarvoor hebben we nog even wat momentum nodig, die afgelopen weken ver te zoeken was.
BultiesBrothers schreef op 23 oktober 2021 20:30 :
[...]
Tja. ik had ook verwacht dat we inmiddels alwel op 28 hadden gestaan vanwege IPO etc. Maar blijkbaar is die 800 miljoen die ze ophalen met de ipo niet bijzonder genoeg. Maar ik mag hopen dat we in december wel 30+ staan. Daarvoor hebben we nog even wat momentum nodig, die afgelopen weken ver te zoeken was.
Allemaal heel begrijpelijk. Deze week gaan we naar de 30 euro. Bij de cijfers met misschien een tipje van de sluier omtrent dividend toezeggingen nog een euro erbij. Verhoging van de rating later dit jaar nog een euro. En dan heb je het wel gehad. 32 euro op 31 december 2021.
Wat een positiviteit allemaal, denk echt dat je met 27 na de q3 cijfers je een vreugdedansje mag doen.
Just lucky schreef op 24 oktober 2021 14:08 :
Wat een positiviteit allemaal, denk echt dat je met 27 na de q3 cijfers je een vreugdedansje mag doen.
Als ik dat zou denken, zou ik er uit stappen. Er zit zoveel potentie in OCI. Ik aanvaard domweg niet, dat wij met zo'n klein groepje alleen slim zijn.
Het cijferrapport met de bijbehorende test die Bulties Brothers op 22 oktober 22.48 uur heeft geplaatst is overweldigend. Het kan niet anders dat OCI met zijn meerderheidsbelang in Fertiglobe schrikbarende goede cijfers gaat leveren op de dag dat zij de 3 e kwartaal cijfers gaan presenteren. En dan neem ik de aannames mee dat OCI zelf door sluiting van productie eenheden over een korte tijd ,iets minder heeft gepresteerd. Fertiglobe zeer comfortabele prijzen heeft ontvangen omdat het gas duurder werd en dat zij daar nauwelijks last van hebben gehad. Het gegeven als de afzet prijzen met 25 $ stijgt leidt dat tot een toename van de EBITDA van 330 miljoen op jaarbasis. In ieder geval is het zo dat elke dollar stijging gaat de EBITDA met 10 miljoen op jaarbasis omhoog. De verwachting is dat de prijzen voor kunstmest ook in 2022 nog hoog blijven en als ze al enigszins zouden normaliseren, duurt dat langer dan gedacht. De grond is wat armer geworden en moet weer herstellen. Er moeten weer miljoenen extra mensen worden gevoed. En wat mij het meest trickert is dat Fertiglobe alsnog de dividend recent heeft verhoogt. Die daad spreekt boekdelen en waren eigenlijk tussentijds een inzage in de cijfers.
Vandaag gepubliceerd, misschien oud nieuws in een nieuw jasje gestoken?www.thenationalnews.com/business/ener... Fertiglobe's first-half profit surges eightfold in 2021 Profit attributed to the owners of the company reached $198.5 million for the period Fertiglobe is owned by Adnoc and Netherlands-listed OCI. Courtesy: Adnoc Jennifer Gnana Oct 24, 2021 Fertiglobe, the chemicals joint venture between Abu Dhabi National Oil Company and Netherlands-listed OCI, registered a more than eightfold increase in its net profit for the first six months of the year, as higher global prices for urea and ammonia boosted its performance. Profit attributed to the owners of the company reached $198.5 million for the period ending June 30, compared with $23m for the same period last year. Revenue surged nearly 71 per cent to reach $1.26 billion, from $737.5m earned during the same period last year. READ MORE Fertiglobe to IPO and trade on Abu Dhabi Securities Exchange Fertiglobe raises $795m in third-largest IPO on the ADX Fertiglobe is the world’s largest seaborne exporter of urea and ammonia. The company recently raised about $795m in its initial public offering, amid strong demand from international, regional and local investors. The company – which is also the Mena region’s largest producer of nitrogen fertilisers by production capacity – sold more than 1.145 billion shares representing 13.8 per cent of its share capital. Its listing is the third-largest on the Abu Dhabi Securities Exchange, with Fertiglobe's market value at $5.8bn. The company attracted three cornerstone investors with commitments of $231m. They are the Abu Dhabi Pension Fund, Singapore's sovereign wealth fund GIC and San Francisco-based activist investor Inclusive Capital Partners. Fertiglobe will start trading on the ADX at 10am UAE time on October 27, subject to closing conditions. It will appear under the ticker “Fertiglobe” and the International Securities Identification Numbering (Isin) code “AEF000901015”. The Netherlands-listed OCI will continue to have the majority stake in Fertiglobe, with Adnoc holding on to 36.2 per cent of the share capital. Fertiglobe plans to increase its dividend to $200m, from $150m, with the payout for the second half of the current financial year due in April 2022. The company expects to distribute a dividend of at least $400m, up from $315m in the financial year ending December 2022. Fertiglobe will pay half of the dividend amount in October 2022, with the remainder scheduled to be paid in April 2023.
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