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ASML is bezig met een bodemvormingsproces op 152+, net boven de 1e Fibo steungrens. De Rsi (relatieve sterkte index, rode lijn) heeft inmiddels alweer een normale waarde rond de 50, net als in augustus voor de stijging.www.nicoprbakker.nl/chart-service/aex... Boven de 126 hebben we in augustus net zo´n bodemvormingsproces gezien. Dit heeft tijd nodig (dit heeft toen zelfs de hele maand augustus geduurd, zie ook charts onderstaand).www.tostrams.nl/artikel-detail.aspx?I... www.adnbeursanalyse.nl/Aandelen/ASML-... Kortom, even geduld.
rolof schreef op 14 november 2017 23:13 :
...
Hier op Amendoeira
www.youtube.com/watch?v=PeX95uSA6iU wil ik (als het even kan) toch nog wel 35 jaar prettig kunnen blijven wonen.
...
Ziet er mooi uit. Daar ga ik eens wat meer over opzoeken.
Vraag me af of ASML nu door de steun gebroken is.
ReinHeinz schreef op 15 november 2017 09:18 :
Vraag me af of ASML nu door de steun gebroken is.
Tostrams geeft aan dat steun op 149.90 ligt (gevormd op 25 oktober).www.tostrams.nl/artikel-detail.aspx?I... Het is zaak daar op basis van slotkoers boven te blijven.www.tostrams.nl/artikel-detail.aspx?I...
rolof schreef op 15 november 2017 10:54 :
[...]Tostrams geeft aan dat steun op 149.90 ligt (gevormd op 25 oktober).
www.tostrams.nl/artikel-detail.aspx?I... Het is zaak daar op basis van
slotkoers boven te blijven.
www.tostrams.nl/artikel-detail.aspx?I... Bedankt voor de info! Hopelijk blijven we erboven...
Hoi Rolof. Ben jij vannacht niet naar bed geweest?
SNSN schreef op 8 nov 2017 om 18:57: For the last months the stock has formed (bearish) 'rising wedge' pattern with the target price ~160 Eur for Nov 8. The lower edge of that 'rising wedge' pattern was broken down yesterday at ~159. After the lower pattern edge was broken (see above), the actual 'pattern target' should be ~142. However, the 'first target' is just around ~152 - strong resistance at the lower edge of rising (trading) channel formed since Aug 29. In general, at current P/E = ~35 (price/earning ratio) the stock is highly overpriced. Actually above ~120 it's not an 'investment stock' any more, but just a 'trading stock' for the active 'mid-size speculators' - day-traders (using basic 'trading strategies' with usd & eur 'hedging accounts', given well expected declining for Eur/Usd-rates since Aug 29 - compare with the stock 'rising channel' above). Indeed, 'investment stocks' usually have P/E ratios in the range 15 - 26. Compare with the P/E ratios for diff indices: P/E (S&P) = ~25; P/E (Nasdaq 100) = ~26; P/E (Dow Ind) = 21. For instance, for EPS = 9.2 Usd for 'Apple' (AAPL), the E/P ratio is just around ~19. So, given stock's current annual earnings ~4.66 (1.23 + 1.05 + 1.08 +1.3) the stock's fair value is in the range ~ 70-121 (assuming the stock is an 'investment' one). Again, given the Q3-report (take a look at the 'net booking') the 'net sales' in the next quarter Q4-2017 will be much lower, i.e. around ~2.28, than in the Q3-2017 (read old posts for details). As for the EPS for Q4-2017, it will be also well below the EPS from Q3-2017, to be precise - just around ~1.26, i.e. very close to the EPS = 1.23 for Q4-2016. So, take care. Good luck. ________________________________________________________________________SNSN schreef op 9 november 2017 16:46 :
[...]
As you see, nothing strange, just 'business as usual'...
As you were inform (see above) the stock is just testing the 'first target' - the (dynamic) support zone around ~152 (see post above for details). This support zone is formed by the lower edge of the rising trading channel since Aug 29 (see above).
So, till the dynamic support level (~152.20 today) it's just a usual 'trading move' (necessary to preserve the 'drift') between the upper- and lower- edges of the rising channel (since Aug 29). Though, the rising trend itself was actually artificial one (pure tech-trading based), as was not caused by any really new objective info on the particular stock, just by comp tech trading by mid-size specs in usd & eur 'hedging accounts' at falling eur/usd rates since Aug 29 (see above).
However, don't forget, the actual 'pattern target' (read above) is around ~142. So, a real story may start just under 152, if the dynamic support (i.e. 'artificial/fake' sub-trend) is broken.
Take care.
The lower edge (~153.15 yesterday and ~153.75 today) of 'fake' uptrend was broken down yesterday. Today closing under ~153.75 would confirm this, making clear whether the 'fake uptrend' formed since Aug 29 was broken definitely. In this case the next pattern target is ~142 (read post above). Some tech indicators: - Since Nov 3 the A/D line moves systemically down, indicating weakness of uptrend and a high prob for the uptrend change. - Since Nov the 'distribution' systemically dominates 'accumulation'. - Since Nov 8 the 'macd' is under the 'signal line' moving sharply towards zero. - Since Nov 7 the 'mfi' moves down from ~90, and is around ~60 today. - A bearish-reversal pattern - 'bearish engulfing' was completed on Nov 10 on weekly scale. Again, take for instance a look at the Eur/Usd-rates and stock price dynamics vs volumes in the US and Europe yesterday, Nov 14. You'll see in Europe the stock has dropped under the edge of (fake) uptrend at high volume (well above average), while in the US the stock moved upwards (against the index), but at more than twice lower volume - you know what it means for 'spec stocks' trading in eur-us 'hedging accounts' (at rising eur/usd-rates). Just to feel how 'candle patterns' work, just take a look, for instance, at the similar patterns 'bearish engulfing', but on daily scales, formed on Oct 3 and Oct 17 (read old posts for details). For just some 'completeness' of st/mt- pictures, take a look at the bearish signals row - several two-days patterns: 'bearish engulfing' on Oct 30, followed by 'bearish harami' on Nov 2, completed by the 'spinning top' on Nov 6. These 'signals' (and other f&t- indicators) together with the mid-term pattern - 'rising wedge' with the target 160 on Nov 8 and it's broken lower edge on Nov 7 (read Nov 8 post above) indicated rising probability for the end of 'fake uptrend' (formed since Aug 29 - read old posts). PS. Take also a look at 'aex' which crossed down 50-days SMA (it's around ~540 today), testing mid-term support zone ~540-537 formed since May 2017. The 'role' of 'aex' in the 'asml' stock dynamics is really important as the stock's 'beta' is well above 1, indicating a high correlations with the index at much high 'market risk' exposure for the stock. Take care.
A3aantje schreef op 15 november 2017 11:16 :
Hoi Rolof. Ben jij vannacht niet naar bed geweest?
Hee A3aantje, bij ons in Portugal is het een uurtje vroeger dan in NL en mijn compu staat nog steeds op NL tijd. Ben gewoon een slechte slaper (was even wakker en wat gepost). Toen weer goed geslapen. Kan jullie niet missen, dat zal het zijn ;-).
Wat mij betreft houdt de correctie hier zo'n beetje op. Er is nou 10 euro af.
PS. On the way towards the pattern target ~142 (see post above) the first 'soft' static support (formed since Oct 16) is around ~150. The next s-zone is at ~145-147. Good luck.
De beurs gaat even naar beneden, het wachten is op een positief signaal uit de VS. Op een bepaald moment stappen partijen weer in. Gisteravond naar een goeroe op Yahoo Finance zitten kijken en die vertelde dat de tech aandelen fundamenteel gewoon heel goed zijn. Die verwacht eind van het jaar dat wij weer terug zijn op het hoge niveau en dat de boel volgend jaar weer gaat stijgen door de nog steeds hoge resultaten. Als het met tech aandelen goed gaat dan gaat het ook goed met ASML.
Een mooi bericht vandaag. Ik vind het in ieder geval een sterk signaal. De eigen aandelen-inkoop gaat versterkt door, ook volgend jaar. Het geeft een indicatie van de mindset van dit bedrijf. De koers doet er niet veel op, ok so be it. Ik denk dat op de hele Nederlandse beurs nog een remmetje zit ivm de optie-expiratie morgen. Ook voor 2018 zeg ik, join the strongest.
De bange particulier weer eruit? Op dan maar weer richting 160 als tussenstation naar 180 binnen enkele maanden.
Even de link aanklikken voor meer nuttige informatie over de vooruitzichten van ASML BARCELONA (Reuters) 16 nov- Dutch semiconductor equipment supplier ASML is currently buying back its own shares and expects to announce a new buyback program in January, its finance chief said on Thursday Speaking at the Morgan Stanley European Technology, Media and Telecoms conference in Barcelona, Wolfgang Nickl also said that although memory chip firms were expanding rapidly, demand was as well, and he did not believe there was overcapacity. The boom and high margins are one reason Chinese manufacturers are entering the market, and ASML expects to ship to five customers in China next year, two of them logic chip makers and three of them memory chip makers, he said. ASML is one of the world's two largest tool suppliers to semiconductor makers, and its share price is up 42 percent in the year to date. It is Europe's second most valuable technology stock after software maker SAP. As of the end of the third quarter, ASML had completed just 569 million euros of a 1.5 billion euro share buyback program that expires at the end of the year.finance.yahoo.com/news/asml-expects-a...
@rene66, goede berichten. Op naar 2018, dan staat de 180 wel op de borden. Mazzel, Roloff
@rolof, inderdaad heel goede berichten. Ik begrijp o.a. dat in het derde kwartaal nog flink veel aandelen moeten worden terug gekocht. Dus wie weet heeft dat ook nog een positief effect, ik zou niet weten wat de stand van zaken is op dit moment. Maar de vooruitzichten zijn helemaal mooi. Op naar de 180.Mvgr
ik ben aandeelhouder and proud.
Die Chinese avonturen waren wel min of meer bekend, maar het is mooi, dat het nog eens in positieve zin genoemd wordt.
op Nederlandse innovatie, going worldwide.
we begrijpen veel te veel niet op de hele beurshandel
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