A bull market is like sex. It feels best just before it ends.
Barton Biggs
Prachtige quote waarmee The Reformed Broker zijn stuk begint, dat hij weer baseert op een verhaal op Bloomberg: Greed Turning Losers to Leaders in Russell 1000 Index. De greed (hebzucht) is terug in de markt en dat kán duiden op einde bullmarket, die op 9 maart zijn koperen jubileum viert.
Hier hebt u die Russell 1000. Ja, dat gaat al vijf jaar meer dan lekker:
Party like it's 1999?
Bloomberg schrijft:
Two things explain why the biggest gains in the U.S. stock market this year are coming from companies without profits, according to Jeff Mortimer of BNY Mellon Wealth Management: Greed, and fear of missing out…
Unprofitable companies such as Zynga Inc. and FireEye Inc. are leading gains in the Russell 1000 Index. The Nasdaq Biotechnology Index is up 25 percent in the past 10 weeks, the most since February 2012, data compiled by Bloomberg show. Less than a third of its 122 companies earned any money in the last 12 months. Marijuana shares, which trade on venues with less stringent reporting requirements, are among the most active.
“In this backdrop of human emotions, which begins to take over, it’s one of greed, it’s one of willing to pay for something that will happen in the future and being afraid that one might be left behind.”
The Reformed broker meent:
I’ve seen this kind of thing before.
I was around in ’99 when they started taking companies public for billions of dollars just because they had the word “Linux” in their names. I saw 3Com take 5% of its Palm subsidiary public in 2000 and watched as that 5% little stub became worth more than all of 3Com – the parent company that owned the other 95%, plus its own business.
We’re not quite there yet, but we’re well on our way. Anyone who tells you otherwise or pretends that this is normative, rational behavior is a dangerous idiot with no sense of market history.
Er zijn twee verschillen met toen, ofwel de dotcomhype: de waardering van de brede markt ligt nu een stuk lager dan toen. Nu zijn markten duur, toen waren ze krankzinnig duur. En rond 2000 was iedereen uitzinnig over aandelen, economie en wat niet eigenlijk? Nu is dat toch ietsje anders.
Verder houd ik inderdaad ook mijn hart vast. Maar dat doen er dus meer. En dan... Tja, lastig hé om die markt in te schatten?