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Auteur: Corné van Zeijl

Corné van Zeijl is analist en strateeg bij Actiam. Daarnaast is hij beurscommentator bij onder meer RTL Z en BNR en schrijft hij columns voor verschillende media. Van Zeijl begon zijn carrière als analist voor Staalbankiers in 1986. In 1989 maakte hij de overstap naar vermogensbeheerder bij Robeco. Tussen 1994 en 2003 was ...

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4 Posts
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  1. [verwijderd] 8 april 2010 15:40
    Hoi Corne,

    Allereerst nog proficiat met je verjaardag gisteren, 7 April.

    Dat de Mexicaanse Peso uit gaat blinken is mij ook een raadsel, ik kan mij vinden in je artikel, behalve dat Mexico een goedkoop land is, niet voor 95% van zijn inwoners.
    7 jaar gelden was 1 Euro 10 Peso, medio vorig jaar 20 Peso op zijn top,nu staat deze op 16.7, zo'n 20% onder de top.

    Helaas heeft Mexico erg veel last van de crisis en is niet in staat geweest deze goed aan te pakken.

    Belastingverhogingen hebben vele mensen de das om gedaan, met name de kleine zelfstandigen.

    Een nadeel van de gegevens mbt inflatie is dat cijfers maar al te graag positief gemanipuleerd worden en dus een vertekend beeld geven.

    Zo'n 3 jaar geleden betaalde ik voor een brood 14 Pesos, nu betaal ik voor hetzelfde brood 24.5 Pesos in dezelfde supermarkt, een stijging die tekenend is voor alle prijzen voor dagelijkse producten. Het afgelopen jaar zijn de prijzen enorm gestegen.

    De lonen zijn nauwelijks gestegen, de schulden die mensen hebben op b.v. hun credit cards wel.

    Hier kan je zelfs bij WalMart 5000 Peso krediet krijgen op je WalMart pas.

    Sams, Costco, Sears, Palacio De Hierro, Liverpool, Viana, etc. zijn andere concerns waar je heel eenvoudig tussen de 5000 en 10000 Pesos krediet kan hebben.

    Een ander veel gebruikte vorm van spullen kopen is betalen in termeinen van 12 tot 18 maanden zonder rente.

    Veel mensen zijn in de verleiding gekomen om maximaal krediet te hebben in vele winkels tegenlijk, plus de aankoop van goederen op basis van termijn betaling.

    Door de hoge werkeloosheid is men vaak niet meer in staat dit terug te betalen.

    Peso duurder tov de Euro en Dollar, waarschijnlijk alleen omdat de problemen in Europa en de VS ook niet van de lucht zijn.
  2. [verwijderd] 8 april 2010 17:03
    This insightful article was written by Charles Simpson, and is reprinted here with his permission. He can be reached at:

    First: A reality check on Mexico -
    Mexico is in a unique position to reap many of the benefits of the decline of the US economy. In order to not violate NAFTA and other agreements, the U.S.A. cannot use direct protectionism, so it is content to allow the media to play this protectionist role.
    The U.S. media – over the last year – has portrayed Mexico as being on the brink of economic collapse and civil war. The Mexican people are either beheaded, kid-napped, poor, corrupt, or narco-traffickers. The American news media was particularly aggressive in the weeks leading up to spring break.
    The main reason for this is money. During that two-week period, over
    120,000 young American citizens poured into Mexico, and left behind hundreds of millions of dollars.
    Let’s look at the reality of the massive drug and corruption problem, kidnappings, murders and money. The U.S. Secretary of State, Clinton, was clear in her recent honest assessment of the problem; “Our insatiable demand for illegal drugs fuels the drug trade. Our inability to prevent the weapons from being illegally smuggled across the border to arm these criminals, causes the deaths of police officers, soldiers and civilians,” Clinton said.
    The other large illegal business that is smuggled into the U.S.A., that no one likes to talk about is Human Traffic for prostitution. This “business” is now competing globally with drugs, in terms of profits.
    It is critical to understand, however, that the horrific violence in Mexico is 95% confined to the three trans-shipping cities for these two businesses, Tijuana, Nogales, and Juarez. The Mexican government is so serious about fighting this, that they have committed over 30,000 soldiers to these borders towns.
    There was a thoughtful article written by a professor at the University of Juarez. He was reminded of the Prohibition years in the U.S.A., and he compared Juarez to Chicago when Al Capone was conducting his reign of terror, capped off with The Saint Valentine’s Day Massacre.
    During those years, just like Juarez today, 99% of the citizens went about their daily lives, attended classes, went to movies, restaurants,
    and parks.
    Is there corruption in Mexico? YES ! Is there an equal amount of corruption related to this business in the U.S.A.? YES ! When you have a pair of illegal businesses that generate over $300,000,000,000 in sales, you find massive incentive for corruption. Make no mistake about the Mexican Drug Cartel; these “businessmen” are 100 times more sophisticated than the bumbling bootleggers of Prohibition. They form profitable alliances all over the U.S.A. They do cost benefit analyses of their business much better than the US automobile industry has.
    They have found, over the years, that the cost of bribing U.S. and Mexican Border Guards, and the transportation costs of moving
    marijuana from Sinaloa to California, have cut significantly into profits. That is why over the past 5-7 years, they have been growing marijuana in U.S. State and Federal Parks, and BLM land all across America. From a business standpoint, this is a tremendous cost savings on several levels.
    Just look at California as an example of one of the largest consumers. When you have $14.2 billion of Marijuana grown and consumed in one
    state, there is savings on transportation, less loss of product due to confiscation, and an overall reduction in cost of bribery with law enforcement and parks service people.
    Another great savings is the benefit to their employees. The penalties in Mexico for growing range from 5-15 years. The penalty in California, on average is 18 months, and out in 8 months. The same economic principles are now being applied to the methamphetamine factories.
    FOX News continues to scare people with its focus on kidnapping. There are kidnappings in Mexico. The concentration of kidnappings has been in Mexico City, among the very rich and the three aforementioned border Cities.
    With the exception of Mexico City, the number one city for kidnapping
    among NAFTA countries is Phoenix, Arizona ! With over 359 cases in 2008. The Phoenix police estimate twice that number go unreported, because like Mexico, 99% of these crimes were directly related to drug and human trafficking. Phoenix, unfortunately, is a geographically profitable transshipping location.
    Mexicans, just like 99% of the U.S. Citizens during prohibition, go about their daily lives all over the country. They get up, go to school or work, and live their lives untouched by the border town violence.
    These same protectionist news sources have misled the public as to the real danger from the swine flu in Mexico, and temporarily devastated the tourism business. As of May 27, 2009 there have been 87 deaths in Mexico from the swine flu. During those same five months, there were 36 school children murdered in Chicago. By their logic, if the 87 deaths from the swine flu in Mexico warrant canceling flights and cruises to Mexico, then let's close all roads and highways in the USA because of the 43,359 automobile-related deaths in the USA, in 2008 alone !
    What is just getting underway is, what many are calling the “Largest southern migration to Mexico of people and real estate assets, since the
    Civil War.” A significant percentage of Baby Boomers have been doing the research, and are making life changing decisions to move out of the U.S.A. The number one retirement destination in the world is (you guessed it...) Mexico. There are already over 2,000,000 US & Canadian property owners in Mexico,and who knows how many renters. A very conservative estimate of the number of American and Canadian Baby Boomers who are on their way to owning property in Mexico, for full or part time living, in the next 15 years is over 6,000,000.
    Do the math on 6,000,000 people buying a $300,000 house or condo, and you will understand why the U.S. Government is trying to tax this massive shift of money to Mexico through H.R. 3056.
    The U.S. government calls this “The Tax Collection Responsibility Act of 2007”. Those who will have to pay it are calling this an EXIT TAX.
    Mexico: A better economic choice than China.
    Another large exodus from the U.S.A is high-paying, skilled jobs. The job shift in the automobile sector, both car and parts manufacturing, is already known by most investors. In the last few months, John Deere and Caterpillar have been laying off thousands of workers in the U.S.A., and hiring equal numbers in Mexico. The most recent industry that is making the shift is the aerospace manufacturers. There is currently a $210 million aerospace facility being built in the city of Zacatecas. With the 11 U.S. companies moving there, it is estimated to provide more than 200,000 new high-paying jobs in the coming years. One of the main factors for this shift in jobs south to Mexico, instead of China, is the realistic analysis of total production, labor and delivery costs. While the labor costs in China are 40% less on average, the overall transportation costs and inherent risks of a long distance supply chain, as well as quality control issues, gives Mexico a distinct financial advantage.
    Mexico’s Real Econo
  3. [verwijderd] 8 april 2010 17:05
    Mexico’s Real Economic Future.
    Mexico has avoided completely the sub-prime mortgage problem that has devastated the U.S. banking industry. Mexican banks are healthy and profitable. Mexico has a growing and very healthy middle and upper middle class. The very recent introduction of residential financing has Mexico in a unique position, with over 90% of homeowners who own their homes outright. U.S. banks are now competing for the Mexican, Canadian and American cross-border loan business. It is, and will continue to be, a very safe and very profitable business. These same banks that were loaning in a reckless manner, have learned their lesson, and are loaning here the old fashioned way; requiring a minimum of 680 credit score, 30% down payment, and verifiable income to support the loan. In most areas of Mexico where Baby Boomers are moving (with the exception of Puerto Penasco, which did not have a national and international base of buyers), there is no real estate bubble. The higher end markets ($2-20 million) in many of these destinations are going through a modest correction.
    > The Baby Boomers market here is between $200,000 and $600,000. With the continuing demand in the Bay of Banderas, that price point will, in coming years, disappear. This is the reason the Mexican government
    is spending billions of dollars on infrastructure north along the coast, all the way up to Mazatlan.
    The other major area where America has become overpriced is in the field of health care. This massive shift of revenue is estimated to add 5-7% to Mexico’s GDP. The name for this “business” is Medical Tourism. The two biggest competitors were Thailand and India. But in Thailand and India, the biggest drawback is geography. Also in recent events, Thailand’s inability to keep a government in place, and terrorist attacks in Mumbai, have helped Mexico capture nearly half of this growth industry. In Mexico today there are over 56 world-class hospitals being built to keep up with this business.
    Mexico is currently sitting on a cash surplus, and an almost-balanced budget. Most Americans had never heard of Carlos Slim until he loaned the New York Times $250 million. After that, it became clear to many investors around the world what Mexicans already knew: Mexico has been able to avoid the worst of the recent economic devastation. In fact, Mexico’s resilience is to be admired. When the U.S. Federal Reserve granted $30 billion loans to Mexico, Singapore, South Korea, and Brazil, Mexico reinvested that money in Treasury bonds in an New York City account.
    According to oil traders, Mexico’s Pemex wisely as the price of oil shot to $147 a barrel put in place an investment strategy that hinged on oil trading in the range of $38-$60 a barrel. Since the beginning of 2009, Mexico has been collecting revenues on hedged positions that give them $90-$110 per barrel today. Mexico’s recent and under-reported oil discovery in the Palaeo Channels of Chicontepec, has placed it third in the world for oil reserves; right behind Canada and Saudi Arabia.
    The following is a quote from Rosalind Wilson, President of the Canadian Chamber of Commerce, on March 19, 2009: “The strength of the Mexican economic system makes that country a favorite destination for Canadian investment ”.
    The answer is simple and old fashioned: SUPPLY AND DEMAND.
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