Vergeet alles wat u denkt, d.i.t. is reden waarom rentes dalen?

Het is zo'n heerlijke, simple & stupid verklaring, dat ik bijna geneigd ben het meteen het voordeel van de twijfel te geven. Twee Bloomberg-auteurs houden de rentefratsen dit jaar puur op overheidsbegrotingsperikelen. Nu ze dat zo zeggen, zo heurt het eigenlijk ook en was vroeger heel normaal en gangbaar.

Maar dat was vroegâh! Om een lang verhaal kort te maken: in het hele stuk komt u de naam Fed niet tegen. Echt! waar komt u dat nog tegen anno nu? Dat alleen al vind ik vrij verfrissend. Of het klopt, weet ik over zoveel jaren. Citaat.

In fact, it’s the sharp upwards move that starts to look weird. The move upwards that took place between the U.S. presidential election in November and early in the Spring coincided with a Democratic sweep of Georgia and the flipping of the Senate into Democratic control.

That set off a ton of speculation that Democrats would push through a fiscal-heavy agenda — all while the Federal Reserve kept policy relatively easy, which contributed to expectations for higher growth and more inflation and therefore higher yields at the long-end.

The Bear Traps report points out that higher yields as politicians coalesce around an agenda isn’t necessarily a new dynamic. In fact they say the yield curve has a history of steepening as control of the U.S. government shifts from two parties to one party.

That’s exactly what happened in late 2016, when President Donald Trump won the presidency with Republicans in control of both the Senate and the House of Representatives.

Oordeel zelf maar: klopt het? Dit is de Amerikaanse Ten Year Treasury Yield:

Hier de bron:

On a longer-term chart, the move lower in U.S. Treasury yields doesn't look so odd. In fact, it's the sharp upwards move that starts to look weird https://t.co/lY7zqJBoH3

— Bloomberg (@business) July 21, 2021