SNSN schreef op 13 feb 2018 om 12:35:
Actually it is just a 'fake article
', nothing more.
Unfortunately, the author just doesn't understand how 'statistics' actually works.
The matter is that the ex-post 'statistics' (based on 'past history') just cannot be used for current & ex-ante evaluations (forecasts) of NOT-stationary (time-dependent) stochastic processes underlying financial markets and real economy.
If briefly, that is for instance, the current macro- & micro-economic conditions are very different from those 'historic' ones, being in place before the credit crunch crisis. Actually, because of artificial interference of CBs with (almost unlimited) QE-pumping, the current situation in economy and its financing is just really unique, never existed in past in such forms & scales. So far, any ex-post (historical) statistics has very little, actually NOTHING to do with current state of dynamic system (economy & financial markets) and so far just cannot be used for any forecasts.
Indeed, because of artificial CBs' pumping (via QEs) the financial markets developed 'assets bubbles' (in both fixed-income and equity) and became almost fully disconnected from the real economy. Such a situation (in such a huge scale) doesn't have any examples in history. That's underlying processes are NOT stationary, and 'historical observations' are just IRRELEVANT, and can't be used for any ex-ante predictions/forecasts.