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NIO Is Losing The EV Race
Jan. 31, 2022 5:28 AM ETNIO Inc. (NIO)DIDI, LI, XPEV
Stijging meer dan 17%. Valt mee met dat verliezen.
Na de enorme koersafstraffing is 17% remonte peanuts. Als je daarvoor was ingestapt zit je natuurlijk een tijdje goed. De IEX-site gedijt natuurlijk uitstekend bij het feit dat veel beleggers leven bij de waan van de dag, de week, de maanden ipv fundamenteel te kijken.
MorcaH schreef op 31 januari 2022 22:20:
Stijging meer dan 17%. Valt mee met dat verliezen.
Niet vergeten dat Nio in een hoger segment verkoopt. Hierdoor zeggen het aantal sales niet alles. Daarnaast opent dit jaar Neopark a 16800 hectare, dus zullen de sales eind dit jaar ook omhoog gaan.
nine_inch_nerd schreef op 31 januari 2022 22:14:NIO Is Losing The EV Race
Jan. 31, 2022 5:28 AM ETNIO Inc. (NIO)DIDI, LI, XPEVseekingalpha.com/article/4482896-nio-...
NIO rond de 40 min.
Niks bijzonder. Klein item (US renteverhaal)
NIO: No Reason To Despair About Delivery Growth
The Asian Investor
NIO (NIO)’s delivery card for the month of February was weak. However, NIO’s rivals also reported slowing production and delivery growth due to Chinese Year, which traditionally results in a slower sales season for EV manufacturers. The market should expect a rebound in NIO’s delivery growth at the end of the first quarter, at which point we could see a revaluation of the company’s commercial growth prospects!
Shares of NIO are currently locked in a down-trend due to investors avoiding growth stocks that have done well during the pandemic and growing concerns about inflation and the supply chain. Multiple car brands in the U.S., like Ford (F), already warned about a persistent production impact of semiconductor shortages in FY 2022. Computer chip shortages were the reason why many car brands, including electric vehicle startups like NIO, had to lower their production and delivery forecasts in FY 2021.
Analyzing NIO’s delivery card for February
NIO delivered 9,652 electric vehicles in January 2022, showing a growth rate of only 33.6% year over year. The company sold 5,247 ES6, 2,874 EC6s and 1,531 ES8s in the first month of FY 2022. NIO’s delivery growth also decelerated in January, after growing 49.7% in December, and deliveries dropped again below the 10K delivery mark. In November and December, NIO delivered more than 10K electric vehicles each month, mostly ES6s. The month over month decline in deliveries in January is related to a traditionally slow sales season connected to Chinese New Year. Auto sales during this period routinely decline which means the sequential drop in deliveries is not due to NIO’s capacity or slowing demand for the company’s products, but market factors only.
NIO’s delivery growth in its industry group, however, was the weakest. XPeng (XPEV) and Li Auto (LI) grew deliveries considerably faster than NIO at rates of 115.0% and 128.1% year over year. Additionally, XPeng and Li Auto had about 30% higher monthly factory output and delivery levels than NIO, which at least suggests that there is a risk for NIO to fall further behind its rivals if the company doesn’t deliver a material rebound in the first quarter. It is likely, however, that XPeng and Li Auto will continue to beat NIO regarding delivery growth rates in the first half of 2022 because XPeng’s models are in greater demand and Li Auto is still essentially a one-product company, which makes scaling much easier.
Because NIO is entering the sedan market with its ET5 and ET7 products in FY 2022, the firm could see a ramp in deliveries towards the end of the year. The ET7 is also said to make its debut in Germany by the end of 2022 which could indicate a potential acceleration of sales and delivery growth rates for NIO this year, but especially next year. Typically, production and delivery ramps for new electric vehicle models start slowly, but accelerate considerably over time as product adoption rises and companies fine tune their production process. I estimate that NIO could sell 2-3 thousand ET5s and ET7s, combined, monthly, by the end of FY 2023. While I don’t expect NIO to beat its competition regarding delivery growth in FY 2022, NIO does have a shot at improving its delivery growth once its product lineup gains in density and new all-electric sedan models start complementing its existing SUV portfolio. NIO’s international expansion, especially into Europe, could be a catalyst for both NIO's deliveries as well as the firm's shares.
NIO’s valuation makes no sense
NIO is expected to ramp up sales, production and deliveries considerably this year… a ramp that the market appears, at least at the moment, to have lost its appreciation for. I expect the firm to sell 190 thousand electric vehicles in FY 2022, assuming there is no deterioration in the supply situation of important auto parts, especially computer chips that are essential for every electric vehicle these days. Sales projections provided by Seeking Alpha indicate that NIO could grow revenues to $9.9B this year and $15.5B next year, implying top line growth rates of 76% and 56%. From FY 2021 to FY 2026 (using estimates), NIO is projected to increase total revenues 434%, or 40% annually.
NIO sale projections
NIO's top line estimates for FY 2022 and FY 2023 are rising, indicating material upside in revenues depending on how quickly business returns to normal for EV manufacturers.
Data by YCharts
NIO’s valuation, based off of P-S, makes no sense at the moment. The firm’s massive delivery ramp implies a P-S ratio of only 2.5 X (based off of FY 2023 revenues). Last year, NIO had a market-capitalization-to-sales ratio closer to 10 X. Because of the steep drop in pricing that lowered NIO’s share price from $55 to $25, NIO is now a real bargain. NIO’s rivals are also cheap based off of P-S, with market-capitalization-to-sales ratios dropping to 2.4 X for Li Auto and to 3.2 X for XPeng.
NIO market cap comparison versus peers Li Auto and XPeng
Data by YCharts
Risks with NIO
NIO falling further behind its rivals regarding delivery growth and output levels poses a risk to the firm’s valuation. What also poses a commercial risk is the limited availability of computer chips which may still be an issue for the sector this year. A deterioration in the supply situation of important computer chips could affect NIO’s production and delivery prospects for FY 2022, and cause the stock to revalue even lower.
I find shares of NIO to be a really good deal at this price. But, I have said the same thing when NIO traded at $40, so it may take more time for the market to recognize the value inherent in NIO’s massive production and delivery ramp. Since shares of NIO only sell for 2.5 times FY 2023 sales now and the firm is expected to deliver 40% annual revenue growth over the next five years, I consider the EV startup to be materially undervalued. If NIO succeeds in submitting stronger delivery growth rates in FY 2022, in part fueled by new product launches in the second half of the year, the investor market should finally catch on to what is going on in NIO’s consumer markets!
Zullen we dit jaar de 50 dollar nog op de borden zien?
NIO: Brace For Impact
NIO, Inc. (NIO) is getting hammered as delivery growth slows and there is a large rotation out of high-multiple growth stocks. In my opinion, NIO is still overvalued and continues to lose ground to its closest competitors in the Chinese electric-vehicle sector. As the risks mount, the stock could plummet even further.
NIO's Continued Fall Behind Competitors In January
With geopolitical tensions rising as a result of the Russia/Ukraine standoff, investors appear to have even more reason to sell growth stocks with inflated multiples. Recent fears of a full-scale Russian invasion of the European country add to previous months' concerns about supply-chain issues, inflation, and higher interest rates.
Furthermore, NIO, whose stock has seen a significant price increase in 2020 and 2021 as a result of the company scaling electric-vehicle production, is now facing increasing headwinds in terms of delivery growth.
In my previous article on the electric-vehicle maker, NIO Is Losing The EV Race, I discussed the risk of NIO ceding ground to its closest competitors in the electric-vehicle industry. NIO's competitors include Li Auto Inc. (LI), Xpeng Inc. (XPEV), Leapmotor, and HOZON Auto, which sells compact crossovers under the Neta brand.
Li Auto and Xpeng sell significantly more electric-vehicles than NIO, and HOZON Auto came dangerously close to overtaking NIO in December 2021 in terms of deliveries. In 2021, HOZON Auto delivered 69,674 new electric-vehicles, representing a 362% YoY increase. As a result, HOZON Auto became the fastest-growing company discussed here, easily outpacing NIO's 109.1% YoY growth rate.
I was particularly concerned about NIO's relegation to fifth place in terms of delivery growth, with nearly every other direct competitor producing delivery growth that exceeded NIO's. In December, NIO produced only 49.7% YoY delivery growth, indicating that NIO was indeed losing the EV race to more aggressively growing competitors.
Deliveries Of China
Deliveries Of China's Top 6 EV Startups (Gasgoo)
My concerns were confirmed this month, when NIO's January deliveries fell below 10,000 electric-vehicles once more, and delivery growth rates, to put it mildly, disappointed. NIO's deliveries of its various SUV models increased by only 33% YoY, resulting in one of the industry's slowest delivery growth rates.
Li Auto's deliveries increased 12% YoY, while Xpeng's deliveries increased 115% YoY. With deliveries slowing further in the first month of the New Year, there is a significant risk that competitors will outsell NIO in 2022. NIO delivered only 9,652 electric-vehicles in January, and the slow pace of sales/delivery could harm NIO's valuation.
NIO Deliveries In January
NIO Deliveries In January (NYSE:NIO)
With competitors gaining ground on NIO, the stock could be headed for another downturn. NIO's stock has already corrected significantly this year as a result of a large rotation out of high-multiple stocks, but slowing electric-vehicle delivery rates may not yet be priced into NIO's valuation.
More trouble could be in store for NIO and its investors if the market begins to view slowing delivery growth as an NIO-specific issue worthy of a valuation discount relative to other companies in the sector, especially if NIO loses market share to competitors. In this case, NIO's sales potential and market positioning may come under renewed scrutiny.
It doesn't help that the field of electric-vehicle companies is becoming increasingly crowded, with HOZON Auto and Leapmotor reportedly planning Hong Kong IPOs in 2022. New IPOs and increased electric-vehicle options for buyers present a profitability challenge for NIO and other industry players. NIO is not yet profitable, and investors may demand operating profits before assigning premium multiples in the future.
NIO's valuation has been significantly reduced in the last six months, but the stock remains overpriced. The sales multiple for NIO is under 7. Other EV manufacturers have higher P/S and P/B ratios, but they also produce more electric-vehicles and deliver them faster. Three of the six companies represented in this article's charts, HOZON Auto, Leapmotor, and WM Motor, are not yet publicly traded and thus do not publish financial information.
Given the significant slowing of delivery growth, I believe NIO's multiple is excessive. If NIO's delivery growth fails to meet high expectations in 2022, the multiple may contract even further.
NIO PS ratio
Data by YCharts
The Market Misjudges NIO's Risks
Concerns about a potential delisting of ADR shares have taken a back seat to other market concerns in recent months. Supply-chain issues, inflation, and now the conflict between Ukraine and Russia are consuming all of the media's attention. However, there is still a real possibility that Beijing will force Chinese companies to withdraw their ADR shares from foreign stock exchanges.
Despite the fact that other risk factors are currently receiving more attention, I believe the ADR delisting is real, and it alone may render NIO unsuitable as a long-term investment for U.S. investors.
If NIO's January delivery growth continues, the company will struggle to maintain its premium multiple in 2022. Growing deliveries by 33.6% YoY will not suffice in a market where direct competitors routinely deliver 100% YoY growth.
After Li Auto, Xpeng, HOZON Auto, and Leapmotor, NIO now ranks fifth in terms of delivery growth rates. The slower NIO's deliveries grow, the more difficult it will be for the company to demand a premium sales multiple in a sector that will only see increased competition and lower margins in the long run. For NIO, this means either upping the delivery game or bracing for a drop in valuation this year.
Dit artikel houdt geen rekening met de hogere verkoopprijs...
1 nio auto, zijn 2 xpeng auto's. Daarnaast opent Nio dit jaar Neopark, wat de productie zal verhogen.
NIO vraagt beursnotering in Hongkong aan
maandag, 28 februari 2022 08:29
NIO heeft een tweede beursnotering aangevraagd in Hongkong. Dit maakte de elektrische autobouwer maandagochtend bekend.
NIO heeft al een notering in New York.
De autobouwer heeft van het beursbedrijf in Hongkong al te horen gekregen dat de aanvraag van de beursgang in principe wordt goedgekeurd.
Op 10 maart moet het aandeel verhandelbaar zijn in Hongkong.
Nio en Xpeng lopen als een trein in het ravijn.
DeZwarteRidder schreef op 12 januari 2022 18:31:
[...]Verder zakken is onvermijdelijk.
DeZwarteRidder schreef op 29 december 2021 19:14:
[...]De koers is nog steeds ca 80% te hoog, dus er kan nog zat vanaf.
De 'partij' en Xi kiezen economisch gezien voor Putin. Nekslag voor Nio.
MisterBlues schreef op 6 december 2021 20:08:
Die groeicijfers en outlook staan toch nog steeds in geen verhouding tot de schulden!? Als de rente oploopt gaat het nog moeilijk worden...
Daarbij is het een Chinees bedrijf en dat weet je de volgende zaken niet:
- Kloppen de cijfers wel?
- Gaat de partij niet ingrijpen en/of reguleren?
- Blijft het op de Amerikaanse beurs?
En natuurlijk: gaan Westerse bedrijven en overheden geen spionage software ontdekken? Of andere werkelijke of gefabriceerde zaken om de concurrent stil te leggen...?
Lijkt me geen verstandige investering.
Blijft er nog wat over van de koers....???
De Romeinen hebben het uitgevonden: decimeren.......!!!!
Meneer Smit was eigenwijs.
Mr. Smit schreef op 12 januari 2022 20:10:
Prima rendement hier. Ik hou ze nog wel even vast.
Zijn er nog optimisten.....????
DeZwarteRidder schreef op 30 april 2021 16:44:
Het verlies van NIO op jaarbasis is dus ca 3 MILJARD USD..........!!!!
Bij een huidige beurswaarde van ca 60 MILJARD is de koers is dus minstens 10x te hoog.
Dit wordt geen happy end...............
Beetje moe om te zien dat negativelingen iedere keer prikken per bedrijf en aandeel. Boodschap is duidelijk DZR. Wat wil je bereiken met deze naïviteit?
Alles wat chinees is nu, heeft een vrije val. En voor de rest is het ook rood, op een paar na.
Fyi, ik heb al lang geen aandelen NIO. In 2021 vroeg uitgestapt en dikke winst genomen (3 maal). Succes allemaal.
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