Gary, get healed. Do not fret about not yet shipped, please?
You could let me know an estimate on what it might cost, and PLEASE, allow for some extra books (to accumulate some more).
Day before yesterday my mouse hovered over a submit in paypal (with 160 dollar to send netto), but I then thought you might think I felt guilty.
I did not know you were in an investment club. I never was. There are forae I hung out on, in Dutch speaking region mostly, and I see that a fairly good command of English can make a difference (because companies often publish in English only, even while listed on amsterdam.)
By the way, yesterday it was virtually impossible to buy anything at 6, compared to the day before...
And today that uptrend continued.
Day before yesterday, some 5 Mio were let go at 6, a tiny fraction sold at 5 too.. and 7 was not touched.
Now, 7 has been quite heavily bought for two days in a row, and I actuallly sold about 1/8th of what I have (with a nice return. It is Cash. About 28.000 USD actually)
This is at least a week earlier than I thought possible. A good many are lurking (not showing in orders) but since I kind of keep track of what went by, I think the amount in the shadows has been heavily selling straight into bidders. This can go on for a while, but I thought it would go on longer at the 6 price point.
Anyhow, 8 is getting near. (at which I placed sell orders over a month ago) and I intend to let them go, so that I get my cask back (and more than what got in too), and then let the rest ride until the uptrend truly weakens.
I could dump all I still have at 6, and walk away with a very nice NETTO (about 57.000USD) profit (but with the year results 30 days away... it is likely to go up to 9, maybe up to last year’s mean (11.4 was mean avg I think) so that peaks of 12 are possible. (I doubt THAT, but, it is possible)
Anyhow, my marks are in place on 8, and 9. And a remainder at 10.
If all of this happens, all losses from the past are wiped away, with about 125.000 USD net profit. (and that, in four to five months...)
The short term resistence at 6 is broken, the next one is 8.
Fibbonaci shows that, and the rigourous tracking of past volumes shows a very heavy base that bought at 5 and 6, and there is a good support on 5 in bidding, and six gets more stable with substantial “stayers”
Today, one could see a bid order placed at 6 (for over a mio shares..) and later it withdrew and bought at 7. (not same number, but same cash amount)
(which was when my 300.000 shares at 7 were bought) (I was doing some computer repair/soft maintenance on a desktop -as usual- with the owner in the workshop room.)
Another fairly big one followed soon after, and some more not too small ones bought from 7, so that 1.62 Mio were bought from 7, only 300K sold to 6
On the 20th, nearly five mio were sold at 6
On 21st, about 850.000 sold at 6 (and 7 was first hit, for 340.000 shares)
Today, 22nd, somebody dropped 300.000 by mistake I guess (or got twitchy?) for it showed at 7, changed its heart, and dumped. Minutes later, another sell at 7 for again 300.000 appeared. This one stayed.
You know how it goes... but no other followed the 300k dump into the “trap”
The bidders at six responded by increasing in number.
The folks at the forae are used to these game plays, and I know for a fact some still have to compense losses they took when stocks suddenly got shunned just about everywhere..
Others start buying long after the uptrend started.
Well, I started looking for opportunities in oct/nov/dec.. divested in bio (tigenix) and when I saw the blood drain caused from panick sales (some convertibles were dumped into market, for book keeping reason?) and many non-institutionals followed suit.. I again divested stock (one that had been paying steady dividend) ((next is for oct, so I may ride the wave again then, look for the left shoulder..))
And bought some 1.8 mio ECT at the all time low (with the bio and bank stock proceeds)
Well, like I said, if I dump all next Monday, netto gain would mean 57.000 USD above all losses... HAPPY GRIN.
I do think I’ll make over the 100.000 USD net gains, though.
(I may withdraw some marks presently in sell, and ride the upturn further)
Well, once we all saw the 22 march result, we will know (each will draw one’s own conclusion?) and the outlook for august 2013, AND for June 2014 will be discussed in depth.
Hehe, at the forum I wrote a long term prediction many weeks ago.
I do think that next oct/nov/dec we may again see institutionals divest of convertibles (they accrue interest in august, if they ask to convert before august, they do not get the 20 percent, because it is deferred interest)
The months between march 22nd and sept 2013 will be fun to watch.
Oh, outstanding are 126 (not 129 mio)
Diluted (theoretical) are not 645, but about 615 mio.
In 2012, NAV/diluted is about 58cent or 356.700.000 euro NET value (means the same euro amount for presently outstanding shares (in euro, multiply by 1.35 for USD)
Which means, 615.000.000 times 0.58 (and at 126.x Mio outstanding, this is 2.83 euro per outstanding, presently)
Outstanding convertibles last Q 2012 said, they have this in books at a cost of 161 MIO euro (add 20 percent in august, or about 193Mio)
That... That means they have to detract 32 mio from rental income and brick/mortar divestment gains (with some extra gains by margin on the CDO’s that get scrapped)
Which was why I wrote I expected the NAV in 2014 to be only 46ct per diluted.
(my crystal calc. it could be off here and there?)
For 2019, I thought, that by then all convertibles would be converted (which means they can THEN again pay dividend)(as per clausule in cap increase prospectus.)
And, the NAV, by 2019, could be at about 0.85 over the now fully diluted (better occupancy, plus gains from sales over the years, etc)
With dividend again paid out, the ride could be much more interesting.
Not only because the real value per outstanding is then settled, but because the company would be healthy... And, mostly because dividend would be better than the stuff seen in other stock (more likely to be over 14 percent than under 5 percent), and this is what makes stock prices rise (they can sharply rise with a dividend of 5 pct to the mean in comparable markets)
I wrote it in Dutch, and left out some calc. (and some thoughts.. what else is new. I write like that)
I think those that have a crystal calculator (or a texas instrument one, for that matter) could have done same stuff.
I did very long term in my head, then (when some thought I was waays off, put some figures on paper. Then I checked some more facts.
And the end result is still that honest, when june 2014 is nearby, I fully intend to have 1 percent of stock in this little ‘undervalued’ (but not yet proven “healthy”) company.
There could be some wild rides in the years ahead, that is for sure.
Eurocastle, what dreams one can dream in such.
Again, do not fret about the books you have aside for me. Instead, offer me some more. You are reading since you have to hobble along on that swollen foot, are you not?