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Eurocastle Februari 2013

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De verdubbeling sinds januari is een feit.
Het zware blok op .06 is doorbroken en zo stil hier?
Iedereen aan het feesten?
nou, ik feest nog even niet, ik heb ze wel gekocht voor gemiddeld onder 4 cent maar heb het al eens vaker een paar centen in de week zien vallen en dat kan dus ook.
nou ik hoop dat iedereen hier grote successen mee behaald hoor en alle goede gevoelens uitkomen ;-)
mag niet te lang?

mail verstuurd zondag, naar americano in NY (de staat)
1ste helft
Gary, so sorry to hear about your breaking your toe.
I must keep myself from thinking I was somehow a cause of your mishap. I don’t believe I was the sole cause, but, none-the-less.. perhaps one of the reasons you went over there. But that day, since I was not in any hurry, was not of my choosing.

I am still in no hurry. I do have an enormous backlog.
I hope the strained muscle has been rested and healed.

You know I got in early Retirement on boxing day last December, and have since seen my income decrease, but.. I knew I can live fairly well on half of what my future monthly income will be. (and I can still squander some on my favorite hobbies..)
Stock portfolio has taken an upturn. Took some losses in a BIO-tech (heavy losses, actually), and invested the released funds in an older acquantance, a fund that controls about 2.3 billion euro in German commercial real estate but was over-leveraged some years ago.
Years ago, I made good profits on this fund, and I saw it at an all time low last november/december.. bought a good deal, and it’s made good so far.
It’s been up over 60 percent for a while now (fibonacci trends to still better, underlying net value alone would be worth a hell of a lot more than I paid..), and the ticker will likely go to mean volume/price average it had for last year (it is still a ways under that)

In short, if I sell half of What I invested in that fund, right now, I make good on losses I made in that biotech, and have 19.000 dollar profit on top of that.
Other stock I divested in have risen some, still other took a 40 percent dive, but I was divested.
The bio, it rose a bit after I sold, is now lower than when I sold.
Dividend stock I kept long term have announced they will give much higher dividend this year.. and is now rising far too sharply (months before payout date) (an opportunity, with a window to sell on the head before next ex dividend low so, that one does not have to pay 45 percent taxes on dividend. Go figure.)

It took me some years to learn when to take losses, but overall, (an excel sheet keeps tabs on all I ever had.. and still have) well, the entire folio I keep shows 45 percent profit on invested (after losses and gains, after trading cost and taxes..)
This is BETTER than keeping it in a sock, and since banks savings accounts give next to nothing (less than inflation), it was better than letting all ride in the bank.

In Belgium, an incredible amount is in savings accounts that earn less than inflation... People are still shunning stocks.
Somebody said, buy while blood runs in the streets.
Last year, I did. Took a loss on that bio, cashed in on a head (as in a a head shoulders graph) on an other (in a rise, when you do it..., to see the drop later..), and bought into that german stuff from panickers.
(ECT, eurocastle, it's now a penny stock, I know it inside out. But, I read all the publications and prospectuses, and have done so for many many years, and will eventually keep about 1 percent of its stock for the FAR future (like 2020.. because I think it by then have gone up twentyfold.. They do not pay dividends now, their main focus is divesting of non leased buildings, lease out more, (not buy more), fix short term debt, and eventually, fix a long term obligation agreament with their own mother fund. (Fortress.. a hedge fund).

All in all, in 2020 or so, the net asset value per outstanding share (in assumption all is settled) is likely to be 3 to 4 times higher than it is now.
(now, at 59ct, it is 9 times current trade price (in assumption all is settled..)
The difference then, 2019/2020 or so, is that, once they actually again pay dividends, the dividend may very well be (again) over 16 precent of NAV/share

Now, over 5 percent of dividend on NAV/share, means 20/1, and usually means spikes each year.

I fuly intend to be a winner, a real long term big time winner (as in, only invest with money I got from previous trade gains)

Oh, I have two percent NOW. I intend to keep no more than 1 percent for long term.. may have to divest after august, buy back in nov/dec 2013, but after june 2014, it will be a whole other picture. (People will know about outstanding debts on a much better occupied part of their properties (called drive folio) (mars folio was troubled) because by Q3 of 2014, results of the renegotiated -or settled- for that key moment will have to be published..)

June 2012, they showed profit on total, mostly from rent, some from sales. (and some for managing mars, a 75pct divested folio)
Expected year result is march 2013

There is an expected bubble effect, a spike to 50 percent of current trading between 5 and 6.
(mean support on 4ct, current trading still hits 5ct (stradles°), but 6ct gets bought fairly well as well)

Once august is there, a decline could start, (depends on what march 22, 2013 means to stock holders).
tweede helft

I expect it to hit a new low (nov/dec), and another slow climb for 2014 year result, and a bang (or fuff) in july 2014.
(announcement of the outcome for much better doing folio renegotiation)
(I expect a bang, and not a small one)

By then, the troubled mars folio will be probably nearly completely divested (sold properties have shown profit 2011 and 2012), and the drive debt renegotiated, (together, they are 14 percent of the properties in ECT), so that drive (about 9 percent) will have a much less detrimental impact on outstanding debt vs total.
Of course, with fewer properties, or lettable space, the brick and mortar assets value is less, but the debt also grew less -in greater proportion-, and the value of these properties, it has already showed better than value in the books.
This is, imo, leverage.
Once principal debt (and not only interest) gets lower (probably 2013), and even more so in 2014, the road to fully owned is open.

Once convertible bond obligations to fortress are converted (most of deferred interest convertible bonds belong to to mother hedge fund, but ECT is not a hedge fund), the current left-pocket/right-pocket hokum (ECT gets a fee for managing the troubled mars assets) will finally end, and the neat thing here..

The neat thing is that all these convertibles are already shown when they report NAV (net asset value)/share (they show 59 cent per share, over 645 Million (theoretical) shares.
-- NAV is not (rightly so) shown over only 129 million shares which are currently out in market---

So, in the assumption that, after all troubles are behind the lettable space in ECT, the building management company, and they have a robust debt/ownd ratio (it ain’t too bad.. even NOW ), the NAV further drops to 46 cent (my crystal calculator), it still means an huge undervalue compared to current trading price.
(short term supprt 4ct, mean is 5 ct, upward trending with resistance on 6)

6 month fibonacci, indicates, into 6 ct mean, resistance 8

My short term? Current, one can still buy at 5(with much patience), but in the last three weeks there were/are serious buyers at 6..

Resistance at 6?
I expect some 14 million will be bought/sold before march 22nd. (2012 year result)

Probably mostly still in the 6ct range, but with spikes to 7, and maybe some 6 million will sell at 7
Then, weeks later, maybe april to june, we may see peaks to 9 and so on, but on much lower volumes.
(first quarter results in may will trigger some)
(there is a june 2013 trigger on some cdo)

And then, The BIG Question. Higher still? (NOBODY KNOWS)
Depending on outcome of mars folio negotiation, once we are in august, some convertibles may convert, (could be renegotiated).
However.. Once they (already converted/newly converted) start “dumping”, the small penny stock players will scuttle.

That’s why I expect that by nov/dec 2013, they will be again at the 2012 low
(and next opportunity to get in big time is again there)

ik schrijf net zo onsamenhangend in 't engels dan in ' vlaams?
Zo hier en daar vind ik lacunes, of niet geschreven gedachte treintjes, mss zijn mijn schrijfsels echt de chaos waardig.

In elk geval, met 5.5x mio aan 6ct gisteren, met bijna (only) 5000 stuks aan 5ct gisteren, en een prikje naar 7 ct van 102000 (belange geen doorbraak), was ik in dat mailtje naar Gary nogal "voorzichtig"

of niet?
Oh ja, kokosvrucht gemalen met nog iets..Ik heb het nog nooit geproeft. En Dat is klappermelk?
het liedje is niet mis (oubollig)
Moguh heren en enkele dame,

Vele dagorders geweest zie ik van gisteren....hopen dat de bied weer wat gaat toenemen en dan graag in doorlooporders!! Neem gewoon het risico dat we naar de .10 gaan.
lucas D
Begrijpelijk dat er aandeelhouders die gekocht hebben rond de 0,03/0,04 nu winst pakken.
Ik vind het alleen jammer dat ik daar niet bij zit.
Nu is het ook weer zo dat ongeveer een miljoen uit de bied is gehaald en het dus lijkt of er veel verkocht is, maar dat is slechts schijn.
Verwacht dat die bieders snel terug zijn. Het winstnemen houd de stijging van de koers namelijk niet tegen, maat stimuleert deze juist.
lucas D
Bovendien was het wel makkelijk om op 0,06 te verkopen, maar om ze nu nog voor 0,06 te kopen word al lastiger gezien wat er aangeboden word.
Klopt Lucas....
En op bloedrode beursdagen gaan beleggers op zoek naar de lagere noteringen, en aangezien wij bij het eurokasteel weinig tot niets te maken hebben met het aex,amx,ascx sentiment....kan het nog een leuke week worden.
nu gaarne nog een kleine verkoop van 31500 stukkies (dan zit ik vol) en dan verder up!!

ch@rter schreef op 21 feb 2013 om 10:19:

Moguh heren en enkele dame,

Vele dagorders geweest zie ik van gisteren....hopen dat de bied weer wat gaat toenemen en dan graag in doorlooporders!! Neem gewoon het risico dat we naar de .10 gaan.

Zeer mooie bied weer op de .06 (zet ze maar op doorloop om nog kans te maken zo goedkoop in te stappen!!
lucas D
De huidige koers is een typisch gevalletje van niet zeker weten of je het goed doet.
Als je het boekje bekijkt en interpreteerd dan kan deze koers nog wel een week hetzelfde zijn, en zeker niet lager.

Wat ook kan is dat de koers plotsklaps op 0,08 gezet kan worden en daarna langzaam doorstijgt.
Ik kies uiteraard voor dat laatste scenario, maar ik ben licht bevoordeeld omdat ik al aandelen heb.:~)

Noot:Mijn Bammetjes doen het wat minder, maar Imtech is deze week mijn winstmaker.
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