Justabeliever schreef:
Ron,
Crucell never disclosed the exact sales split for this and I base myself on own assumptions and what I think to remember from reading here and there: SBL 50% of €25m/a Berna products and BPC 100% of €10m/a Berna products, I estimate to be roughly €22.5m/a; i.e. +-€6m/q.
Besides Dukarol, SBL has significant sales from Berna and I'm pretty sure that 50% is a good guess. I'ld need to search through my documents to retrieve the source for this.
I agree there is insufficient substance behind this estimate to underline the accuracy at this point in time, however it's surely better than zero. :)
"One thing that may happen as a result of Crucell buying SBL and Berna Products is that gross margins may increase, as the company will show
the revenue as the retail price rather than a wholesale price.
I believe the company will beat the revenue estimates for the year, the range was very tight, only 5 miljoen euro range, and given in May. I am a little more concerned about "cash flow break even minus capex". This involves something a little more difficult to control than revenues, and that is controlling expenses. Scientists and researchers love to spend money, and I am hoping Kruimer will keep a tight rein on excess spending.
I know they are selling Dukoral and Epaxal in China, I assume with the 40 person sales force in China they are selling Vivotif, Inflexal and Hepavax Gene as well. They have contracted with Adimmune to receive enough antigen to produce 15 million doses of Inflexal, and if they can get approved for intradermal delivery, they may be able to bump that up, with the same amount of antigen, to 75 million doses.
Quinvaxem now controls 50% of the market, stealing market share from GSK. Crucell predicted total market of 150 doses by 2011, at 50% that would be 75 million doses"