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Fri 28 Oct 2005

LONDON (SHARECAST) - Royal Dutch Shell is “overweight” says JP Morgan, particularly after its third quarter earnings numbers beat expectations.

“The shares’ underperformance coupled with the strength of cash flow prospects leaves forward valuations compelling,” says the broker.

The oil major’s cap-ex guidance for 2006-07 looks set to rise significantly in December though JP Morgan said the group should be capable of surprising with 2006 buybacks.

Mr Greenspan
0
quote:

kool schreef:


[quote=MoneyHoneyMaker]
Tijd voor putjes dus.
Zo'n matige koersreactie bij zulke prachtige cijfers.
Bizzar.
?
put mrt 2006 21?
ik wacht nog ff
MHM
[/quote]

Putjes schrijven zul je zeker bedoelen!
De 25 euro 2009 is een hele mooie. Daar kreeg ik vorige week nog 5 euro voor.
is nu al weer gezakt naar 4,60.
het schrijven van puts is hier niet erg populair bij dit forum.
Mijn mening is dat wie schrijft die blijft!


Als RD de komende jaren het beleid van het inkopen van aandelen voortzet is dat inderdaad aantrekkelijk. Mochten ze in de toekomst meer dividend gaan uitkeren ten koste van het aandeleninkoopprogramma dan is dat minder leuk voor putschrijvers.
kool
0
quote:

Mr Greenspan schreef:


[quote=kool]
[quote=MoneyHoneyMaker]
Tijd voor putjes dus.
Zo'n matige koersreactie bij zulke prachtige cijfers.
Bizzar.
?
put mrt 2006 21?
ik wacht nog ff
MHM
[/quote]

Putjes schrijven zul je zeker bedoelen!
De 25 euro 2009 is een hele mooie. Daar kreeg ik vorige week nog 5 euro voor.
is nu al weer gezakt naar 4,60.
het schrijven van puts is hier niet erg populair bij dit forum.
Mijn mening is dat wie schrijft die blijft!
[/quote]

Als RD de komende jaren het beleid van het inkopen van aandelen voortzet is dat inderdaad aantrekkelijk. Mochten ze in de toekomst meer dividend gaan uitkeren ten koste van het aandeleninkoopprogramma dan is dat minder leuk voor putschrijvers.

Waarom is dat zo? Aandelen inkopen of hoger dividentuitkeren is toch allebij goed voor de aandeelhouder en dus toch ook goed voor de koers?
Als ik put schrijf, speculeer ik op een gelijkblijvende of hogere koers van het aandeel op de lange termijn.

Kool
Procambarus
0
Inderdaad lijkt mij het schrijven van langjarige puts op het huidige niveau praktisch risicoloos.
Vóór 2009 komt, naar mijn smaak, de koers nog een keer dik boven €30, dus zelfs het schrijven van een put 35 is te overwegen!
Mr Greenspan
0
quote:

kool schreef:


[quote=Mr Greenspan]
[quote=kool]

Als RD de komende jaren het beleid van het inkopen van aandelen voortzet is dat inderdaad aantrekkelijk. Mochten ze in de toekomst meer dividend gaan uitkeren ten koste van het aandeleninkoopprogramma dan is dat minder leuk voor putschrijvers.

Waarom is dat zo? Aandelen inkopen of hoger dividentuitkeren is toch allebij goed voor de aandeelhouder en dus toch ook goed voor de koers?
Als ik put schrijf, speculeer ik op een gelijkblijvende of hogere koers van het aandeel op de lange termijn.

Kool
[/quote]


Hoi Kool, alles wat ze uitkeren in dividend gaat ten koste van de koers (kijk maar als het aandeel ex-dividend gaat wat er met de koers gebeurt). Als ze het geld gebruiken voor de inkoop van eigen aandelen heeft dit een positief effect op de koers.
Ga maar na, als RD in die jaren dat je put loopt in totaal bijv. 5 euro méér dividend gaat uitkeren, zal die 5 euro uit het aandeel verdwijnen. Een bedrijf dat giga winsten maakt en alles oppot of investeert in verdere groei, zal flink in waarde stijgen doordat de waarde van de onderneming toe neemt. Het uitkeren van dividend gaat ten koste van de groei van het bedrijf en dus ten koste van de koers.
Mr Greenspan
0
Kijk anders eens hoe ze de waarde van een optie berekenen (als het verwachte dividend toeneemt, neemt de waarde van een call af en de waarde van een put toe).
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0
quote:

MoneyHoneyMaker schreef:


[quote=kool]
[quote=MoneyHoneyMaker]
Tijd voor putjes dus.
Zo'n matige koersreactie bij zulke prachtige cijfers.
Bizzar.
?
put mrt 2006 21?
ik wacht nog ff
MHM
[/quote]

Putjes schrijven zul je zeker bedoelen!
De 25 euro 2009 is een hele mooie. Daar kreeg ik vorige week nog 5 euro voor.
is nu al weer gezakt naar 4,60.
het schrijven van puts is hier niet erg populair bij dit forum.
Mijn mening is dat wie schrijft die blijft!
[/quote]
Onzin. Mijn mening is dat er geen nieuwe olie meer gevonden gaat worden.
Shell is ten dode opgeschreven op lange termijn.
Suc6 met uw putjes schrijven.
MHM

EDIT : Teerzanden is dan de toekomst.
www.tsx.com/HttpController?GetPage=Qu...


Hier lees ik toch dat Shell al in de teer zit, weet iemand wat meer?
scholieren.nrc.nl/weekkrant/2001/43/4...
kool
0
Beste kanshebber,

Shell Canada bezit enorme concessies teerzanden, waaruit Shell 8 miljard vaten winbare olie kan halen. Deze reserves worden echter niet meegeteld met de bewezen voorraden zoals de SEC. die vaststeld omdat het hierbij om dagbouw gaat wat als mijnbouw wordt gezien.
Shell is ook de grootste partij als het gaat om natural gas
Binnen niet al te lange tijd zal het aandeel Gas-Olie 50-50 bedragen.
Gas zal op korte termijn steeds belangrijker worden, en Shell zal zijn best doen om nr 1 te blijven.

Kool
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Sunday, October 30, 2005

Oil traders on edge as Shell tightens Oman grip

SINGAPORE: Shell’s new annual Oman crude oil sales contract will give the major more control over Asia’s most important benchmark grade, raising questions about its reliability as a marker, oil refiners said on Friday.

But they say it is yet to be seen how the trading arm of the world’s third-largest oil company will utilise its new option that allows it to determine which months some of its customers will receive their cargoes. “They will have more control over the market for certain, but how much control they will have we don’t know,” a North Asian refining source said.

The changes were unveiled last week, when Shell told oil traders and refiners who buy its Oman cargoes it would lower the price but impose new restrictions on timing. Shell sells around 100-plus Oman cargoes via annual contracts.

“The market was expecting the offer to be higher than what we termed this year, but instead we gave them a lower price band,” said Michael Ng, Shell’s Business Manager, Crude Trading East. “At the same time there is tradeoff, with the lower price we have taken away some of the flexibility.” Shell’s annual sales represent about 20 percent of the Oman stream, whose price helps determine the benchmark for more than 12 million barrels per day (bpd) of Middle East exports to Asia, typically based on the average of monthly Oman and Dubai prices.

Customers who commit to four cargoes a quarter will get one per month, plus a fourth under a nomination process that is ultimately decided by Shell; lifters who buy only one or two cargoes a month will be more dependent on Shell’s decisions. Unspecified cargoes are to be nominated 60 days in advance of preferred loading by lifters, with Shell sending confirmation — or rejection — no less than 45 days before loading. In previous years, loading months were mostly decided at the beginning of the year.

To offset this, Shell trimmed its price for next year to a premium of between 2 and 4 cents a barrel to the Ministry of Oil and Gas (MOG) official price, down from a 5-cent premium in 2005.

Traders said the impact of the new option-based offer system could only be assessed next month when lifters started to plan for their January-loading programme. “We have to watch to see how reduced supplies and Shell’s seemingly greater control over the movement and pricing of cargoes will have on Oman as a benchmark,” a trader with a Japanese refiner said.

Ng said the revisions came after consultation with its lifters. “The Oman market is a lot bigger than (Shell), there are trading companies moving large Oman cargoes through their books, I don’t think our revision is going to affect it (Oman) as a benchmark,” he said.

Smoothing prices: Some oil trading sources said the new restrictions might be aimed at smoothing out distortions that regularly plague the Oman spot market, which is far more liquid than physical Dubai crude, making it a better lever for influencing benchmark prices.

“The options were most likely put in place to help Shell lock prices into a band,” a trader with a Taiwanese refiner said. This year, Sinopec Corp. — Asia’s biggest refiner and a growing player in the Oman market — helped knocked the grade to its lowest levels in years by aggressively re-selling cargoes into the spot market.

This pressured Oman price differentials into a steep discount of between 60 and 70 cents in the second and third quarters. Sinopec, the biggest-single buyer of Shell’s supplies, has already renewed its contract for 20 cargoes this year while state oil trader Sinochem, which sells all its Oman to Sinopec, has quadrupled its contractual supplies to 16 cargoes for the year. Royal Dutch/Shell has a 34 percent share in the Oman crude stream, giving it about 235,000 bpd of the grade, of which traders estimate it sells about 150,000 bpd on annual contracts.

The Oman government holds 60 percent of the equity — which it sells via term contracts and also keeps for its domestic use — although it notified customers last month that it would reduce term sales next year to feed a 75,000-bpd refinery, which is set to start operations by mid-2006. reuters


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Shell says Bonga oil field to start up in November
Mon Oct 31, 2005 11:29 AM GMT



MOSCOW, Oct 31 (Reuters) - Royal Dutch Shell <RDSa.L> said on Monday its Bonga oil project in Nigeria is due to start up in November. "Bonga startup is (due) this month, I mean, November," Malcolm Brinded, Shell's exploration and development boss told journalists at the sidelines of an industry conference in Moscow.

The 200,000 barrel per day project has been delayed several times and costs have spiralled to $3.5 billion. The latest target for startup was the fourth quarter of this year.
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Royal Dutch Shell To Offer EUR52.21/Share In Co Unification



Monday October 31, 8:02 AM EST


LONDON -(Dow Jones)- Royal Dutch Shell PLC (RDSB.LN) said Monday it will pay EUR52.21 a share to remaining Royal Dutch shareholders, or a total of EUR1.6 billion ($2 billion) if they all receive cash, as part of the final phase of its corporate merger.

The offer is for shareholders who have yet to tender their shares as part of the unification between the two companies that have historically made up the group, Royal Dutch Petroleum Company (RD) and Shell Transport and Trading.

The company reiterated that eligible U.K. residents may choose, instead of cash, to receive loan notes exchangeable into two Royal Dutch Shell shares for each Royal Dutch share held. The measure was devised to avoid U.K. shareholders incurring a capital tax gain. Royal Dutch Shell said it expected to pay for the remaining shares in the fourth quarter of 2005.



It added a cash amount of EUR1.6 billion would come on top of the previously announced buyback program of $5 billion for 2005.

The company said the restructuring is expected to be completed on or around Dec., 21 after an extraordinary general meeting is held on Dec., 16, to implement the merger.

Royal Dutch Shell said shareholders holding 98.5% of Royal Dutch stock have already accepted the offer.

Company Web site: www.shell.com

-By Benoit Faucon, Dow Jones Newswires; 44-207-842-9266; benoit.faucon@ dowjones.com

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

10-31-05 0802ET

Copyright (c) 2005 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.

© 2005 Dow Jones & Company, Inc. All Rights Reserved.




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Vakbonden zetten acties Shell door


AMSTERDAM (Dow Jones) - De vakbonden zetten hun geplande acties bij de oliemaatschappij Royal Dutch Shell vestigingen in Pernis en Moerdijk door, aldus woordvoerder Egbert Schelleberg van FNV Bondgenoten maandag tegen Dow Jones Nieuwsdienst.
"Shell heeft niets van zich laten horen, ook het afgelopen weekeinde niet", zegt Schelleberg. "Daarom gaan wij zoals gepland om 18.00 uur de controlekamers in om te vragen de productie af te bouwen." De woordvoerder verwacht dat de productie na vier aktiedagen zal zijn gedaald tot "10 procent van wat die nu is."
Het conflict met de bonden draait om het feit dat Shell de uittredingsleeftijd voor werknemers wil verhogen en duurder wil maken. De bonden eisen handhaving van de huidige uittredingsleeftijd van 60 jaar op het niveau van de regeling zoals die momenteel geldt. Ook wil het dat de nieuwe regeling kostenneutraal is.
Shell Pernis is de grootste raffinaderij van Europa, met een productie van circa 420.000 vaten per dag. In Moerdijk is een groot deel van de petrochemische activiteiten van Shell in Nederland gesitueerd, waaronder de productie van ethyleen en propyleen.
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Russia has questions for Shell on Sakhalin-2 costs
Tue Nov 1, 2005 7:21 PM GMT



MOSCOW, Nov 1 (Reuters) - Russia is asking the Royal Dutch Shell-led consortium that is developing the Sakhalin-2 oil and gas project to provide more information about its increased spending plans, the Energy Ministry said on Tuesday.

Shell <RDSa.L><RDSa.AS> said in July that development costs could nearly double to $20 billion.

"The Russian side has questions to do with poorly-grounded changes in the spending estimate," the ministry said in a statement, adding that it might also order an independent audit to be carried out.

Under the production sharing agreement, the Sakhalin-2 operators need Russian government approval for all major decisions.

Shell announced the cost increases days after signing a memorandum of understanding under which Russia's Gazprom would take a 25 percent stake in Sakhalin-2 in return for giving Shell access to a Siberian gas field.

Gas giant Gazprom <GAZPPE.RTS> later said Shell might have to pay it cash as part of the planned asset swap since the revision diminished the value of Sakhalin-2.

Other shareholders of Sakhalin-2 are Japanese trading houses Mitsui & Co. <8031.T> and Mitsubishi Corp. <8058.T>.
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Putin slams Shell's Sakhalin costs - paper
02/11/2005 08:36


MOSCOW (Reuters) - President Vladimir Putin told executives of major oil company Royal Dutch Shell Russia would not approve Shell’s request to let it double costs at its huge Sakhalin project to $20 billion (11 billion pounds), a newspaper reported on Wednesday.

Kommersant business daily quoted sources, who attended a meeting between Dutch businessmen and Putin during his visit to Amsterdam, as saying Putin had spent more than 30 minutes criticising the cost overruns at the Shell-led Sakhalin-2.

Putin’s criticisms come as a big blow for Shell, which wants the government to approve a new budget for its project, which has been producing oil since 1999 and is building the world’s largest liquefied natural gas (LNG) plant.

The government is reluctant to allow any production-sharing deal to boost costs as it automatically delays the moment when the project becomes profitable and the state starts receiving its share of revenues.

On Tuesday, Russia’s Energy Ministry asked Shell to provide more information about the increased spending plans, saying that so far all requests for changes were poorly grounded.

Shell announced the cost increases days after signing a preliminary deal under which Russia’s gas monopoly Gazprom would take 25 percent in Sakhalin-2 in return for giving Shell access to a Siberian gas field.

Gazprom later said Shell might have to pay it cash as part of the planned asset swap since the revision diminished the value of Sakhalin.

Other shareholders of Sakhalin-2 are Japanese trading houses Mitsui & Co. <8031.T> and Mitsubishi Corp. <8058.T>.

On Tuesday, Russia’s Energy Ministry asked Shell to provide more information about the increased spending plans, saying that so far all requests for changes were poorly grounded.

Shell announced the cost increases days after signing a preliminary deal under which Russia’s gas monopoly Gazprom would take 25 percent in Sakhalin-2 in return for giving Shell access to a Siberian gas field.

Gazprom later said Shell might have to pay it cash as part of the planned asset swap since the revision diminished the value of Sakhalin.

Other shareholders of Sakhalin-2 are Japanese trading houses Mitsui & Co. <8031.T> and Mitsubishi Corp. <8058.T>.

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DJ ^Shell en bonden praten, acties opgeschort
2-11-2005 16:32
AMSTERDAM (Dow Jones)--De vakbonden hebben de stakingsacties bij Royal Dutch Shell opgeschort, nu het oliebedrijf de vakbonden en de Centrale Ondernemingsraad heeft uitgenodigd voor overleg.

Het gesprek tussen de partijen zal aan het begin van woensdagavond plaatsvinden.

"Shell heeft ons beloofd dat er serieuze onderhandelingsruimte is en daarom zijn wij op de uitnodiging ingegaan", zegt FNV Bondgenoten-bestuurder Egbert Schellenberg woensdag tegen Dow Jones Newswires.

In de aanloop naar het gesprek hebben de bonden de afgelopen maandag gestarte afbouw van de productie van de raffinaderij in Pernis en de chemiefabriek in Moerdijk opgeschort.

De voor vanavond 18.00 uur geplande staking bij de Nederlandse Aardolie Maatschappij (NAM) gaat niet door. De NAM is een joint venture van Shell met Esso.

Dow Jones Nieuwsdienst; +31-20-5890270

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

November 02, 2005 10:32 ET (15:32 GMT)

Copyright (c) 2005 Dow Jones & Company, Inc
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AFX UK Focus) 2005-11-02 17:34 GMT:
STOCKWATCH Shell slumps on Sakhalin cost woes

Article layout: raw
LONDON (AFX) - Shares in Royal Dutch Shell PLC have fallen after Russian president Vladimir Putin reportedly criticised the cost overruns suffered by the Anglo-Dutch oil group at the mammoth Sakhalin gas project.

The Russian daily, Kommersant, claimed that Putin, who is in Amsterdam to meet with Dutch businessmen, "lambasted" Shell for the 10 bln usd cost overruns and told the group's chief executive, Jeroen van der Veer, that his government will not sanction the increased budget at Sakhalin.

Putin, according to sources quoted by the newspaper, described Sakhalin's revised budget "economically unfounded."

Shell in July announced that the project, known as Sakhalin-II, is 10 bln usd overbudget, taking its total cost to 20 bln usd and delaying its start up to 2008 from 2007.

A government of a country hosting a major resource project like Sakhalin will normally share in the cost rise.

Shell's B shares closed down 19 at 1,819 pence in London.

Analysts were unnerved by the report, which added to the increased uncertainty on the future of the giant gas project.

"This means that Shell will have to bear the cost overruns itself... which will mean 5 bln usd discounted over 10 years," said one analyst.

Shell declined to comment.

Shell has entered into a preliminary asset swap agreement with Russian gas monopoly Gazprom days before it announced the cost inflation at Sakhalin.

Under the pact, Gazprom will take a 25 pct stake in Sakhalin. Shell, in return, will get a 50 pct interest in Gazprom's Zapolyarnoye field in Siberia, the world's fifth largest gas deposit.



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DJ Shell bereikt akkoord met vakbonden
3-11-2005 16:31
(MORE TO FOLLOW) Dow Jones Newswires

November 03, 2005 10:30 ET (15:30 GMT)

Copyright (c) 2005 Dow Jones & Company, Inc
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DJ Shell bereikt pensioenakkoord met vakbonden
3-11-2005 16:42
AMSTERDAM (Dow Jones)--Royal Dutch Shell plc heeft een akkoord bereikt met de vakbonden, zo meldt een woordvoerder van FNV Bondgenoten donderdag tegen Dow Jones Nieuwsdienst.

De woordvoerder kon nog geen nadere details over het bereikte akkoord geven.

Het conflict tussen de partijen ging over het feit dat Shell de pensioengerechtigde leeftijd op wilde trekken naar 65 jaar van 60 jaar. Daarnaast moesten de 10.000 Shell-werknemers volgens de oliegigant voor het eerst mee gaan betalen aan hun eigen pensioen.

De bonden startten afgelopen maandag acties bij de raffinaderij van Shell in Pernis en het chemiecomplex in Moerdijk. Woensdagmiddag nodigde Shell de partijen uit voor nieuw overleg, waarop het afbouwen van de productie op de betrokken lokaties werd stilgelegd. Woensdagavond startte het nieuwe gesprek tussen de partijen.

Donderdag werd het overleg met de vakbonden en de Centrale Ondernemingsraad over het pensioenconflict tussen de partijen hervat.

Normaal gesproken produceert de raffinaderij van Shell in Pernis ongeveer 420.000 vaten aan verwerkte olieproducten per dag.

Door Arien Stuyt; Dow Jones Nieuwsdienst; +31-20-5890270; robin.vandaalen@dowjones.com

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Shell expands oil shale research project






Donna Gray
Post Independent Staff
November 4, 2005



After years of testing a new method of extracting oil from shale, Shell Exploration and Production is ready to go on to the next phase of a research plan that it hopes will lead to commercial production by the end of the decade.

Tracy C. Boyd, sustainable development manager with Shell, presented the company's plan to the Garfield County Energy Advisory Board Thursday evening.

On about 20,000 acres it owns in the Piceance Basin southwest of Meeker, Shell has been testing an in-place process that heats oil-bearing rock to between 650 and 700 degrees Fahrenheit, then pumps the liquid oil out of the ground.

The process replaces the traditional method of room and pillar or open pit mining and an above-ground retort process of heating the shale to remove the oil.

Colorado's oil shale reserves, located mainly in the Piceance Basin, are the richest in the country.

"We have a world-class energy resource here," Boyd said. "No one has figured out how to get it out of the ground cost-effectively."

In the late 1970s and early '80s, due to a worldwide oil shortage, the federal government subsidized development of alternate fuel sources, including oil shale in northwestern Colorado. Oil shale production, by the mining and retort process, never became commercially viable.

In 1982, the economic boom of energy development in Garfield and Rio Blanco counties took a steep dive when Exxon closed its Colony Oil Shale project in Parachute and put more than 2,000 people out of work in one day.

Shell's new research may change that.

"We really think we're on to something," Boyd said.

As a result of its testing thus far, Shell estimates it can extract one million barrels of oil from one acre of shale.

"We produce 3.5 times the amount of energy for every unit (of energy) we put into the ground," Boyd said. The initial test has also resulted in recovery of 62 percent of the oil trapped in the shale, whereas the traditional mining and retort method recovered between 28 and 30 percent, he said.

Shell now has some of the challenges of the in-situ method resolved, he said, including reliable heaters that take from two to three years to heat the rock enough to liquefy the oil. It's also successfully tested - on a small scale - a process to isolate groundwater from the drilling and heating zone.

Boyd said the company will expand the test area of "freezewall," which essentially creates a barrier of frozen water around the production area, isolating the surrounding aquifer. The next research phase will increase the freezewall to an area the size of a football field, he said.

Shell has applied for a 160-acre research and development plot near its holdings in the Piceance Basin which the Bureau of Land Management opened for application earlier this year. Eight companies bid for leases and they will have 10 years to prove their recovery methods are commercially viable, Boyd said.

Boyd also assured the EAB that Shell is committed to proving its method is both economically sound and environmentally responsible. He also said the company intends to conduct an assessment of the potential social and economic effects full blown oil shale production could have on the region.

"That's why we're going slowly, so we do it right," he said. "Our commitment is not to do anything until the time is right.
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Russia puts pressure on Shell over Sakhalin delays
Unhappy about the financial implications relating to the delays to the joint venture Sakhalin oil project, the Russian government is believed to be pressing Shell to cover the costs itself.

4 Nov 2005, 16:49 GMT - Sakhalin is a joint venture oil development project located in the far east of Russia which is partly funded by the Russian government. Under the terms of the joint venture production sharing agreement (PSA) Russia cannot start to benefit from production revenues until the other partners in the operation recoup their costs.

Therefore President Putin's government is keen to keep overrun costs down in order to minimize the wait until Russia can take it cut from Sakhalin proceeds.

With this in mind it is believed that Mr Putin, while on a trip to the Netherlands, has told Shell's Jeroen Van der Veer that his government would not ratify the revised budget of $20 billion to realize the project and that Shell would have to cover the $10 billion overrun costs.

Shell's shares have already taken a hit due to the delay in the Sakhalin project coming online. Now Shell's stock has lost 19 pence due to concerns over the possible addition cost burden.

Furthermore, to make matters worse, some have suggested that the Russian government, which has been very active in acquiring control over domestic energy assets recently, is using the overrun as an excuse to grab greater control of the project.

Source: Datamonitor Newswire
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