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Russian shares sink on Putin’s criticism of Mechel Russian stocks are falling, with the RTS plunging 5 percent to 1,962.8 points as of 2:01 p.m. and the MICEX down 5.6 percent to 1,485 points. On the MICEX Stock Exchange, the biggest losers were Sberbank (down 7 percent), Severstal (down 9 percent) and Surgutneftegas (down 6 percent). Mechel was down 28 percent on the RTS market. Russia’s stock market will remain in negative territory today, Alexander Laputin, chief investment consultant at Otkritie Financial Corporation, told RBC TV. “The Russian stock market falls seven weeks out of every eight, and six of them in a row. From a technical viewpoint, panic is certainly possible, with many traders closing their positions. Usually this is a signal for a possible local bottom,” he added. Konstantin Cherepanov, an analyst at CIT Finance, views Russian stocks as fundamentally attractive. But at this point, it is difficult to say whether it is better to buy the stocks now or wait. It is a good time for long-term, but not for short-term, purchases in view of the disappointing news from both the Russian and foreign markets. Commenting on domestic news, Cherepanov focused on the assessment of LUKoil’s and TNK-BP’s profits, which have been voiced over the past few days. Russia’s oil sector is reporting modest gains in the first half of the year. Domestic oil companies seem to be quite attractive, and oil sector stocks can already be recommended for long-term buying. The second quarter of 2008 looks like it will be successful for LUKoil, which is expected to report record high figures. URALSIB Financial Corporation also expects the market to drop further. Investor optimism has been dampened by declining oil prices and the country’s poor economic performance in June. But a bigger blow to the market was Prime Minister Vladimir Putin’s criticism of the Mechel steel and coal company’s pricing methods. At yesterday’s meeting with metal producers in Nizhny Novgorod, Putin accused Mechel of selling raw materials for twice the price at home as it does abroad. Russian experts warn that if the RTS index drops to 1990, the market will have fallen by 20 percent, ushering in another bear market period, for the second time this year. Mechel’s ADRs plummeted 38 percent on the US market yesterday following Putin’s remarks, but investors expect more falls ahead. Time will show whether Mechel’s slump was an exaggerated reaction or not. According to BrokerCreditService, the metals sector looks worse than the market today, and there are good reasons for that. “The mining and metals sector stocks will be more vulnerable throughout the whole of today’s trading as the government’s latest fiscal policy initiatives caused panic among western investors, triggering sell-outs in the sector’s stocks,” the company’s analysts reckon. Oil and gas sector stocks could stabilize today, perhaps reaching local support levels. For its part, AntantaPioglobal says the market could be sliding further in morning trading, leading to technical sales in liquid stocks. “Coal companies will be losing today, following Putin’s attack on Mechel yesterday,” it says. The Russian market seems to have lost ground, but the decline is expected to be short-lived. ALOR Group predicts more gloom for Russian shares today. If Mechel does not recover shortly, a significant decline could be expected in all liquid shares. Foreign investors are particularly sensitive to such kind of news. “At the same time, we do not think that Mechel’s stock will plunge just as much on the Russian market. In this situation, it is better to refrain from any operations and wait until things stabilize. If metals sector stocks fall, we recommend picking them up (except for Mechel),” ALOR’s experts said. Nadezhda Utenkova, with Troika Dialog, thinks that the market has already reached its bottom. “If the decline continues, the market could sink to 1,860 points,” she noted. If this happens, the probability will be high that it will bounce back, correcting upwards, with the RTS index likely to rive above 2,000 points, Utenkova believes. Speaking about reasons behind the market fall, she pointed to the possible inspection of Mechel by Russia’s Anti-Monopoly Service, following Putin’s attack. The news sent the group’s shares tumbling on the NYSE, and they lost $5 billion of their value yesterday, or more than 37 percent, leading to a ripple effect, affecting blue chips such as VimpelCom and MTS. Weak trading on the US stock market also added to RTS’s woes. “In addition, there are negative political expectations on the part of foreign investors,” added Utenkova, at the same time noting that “greed will prevail over fears, and investors will start cautious buying.” Anton Startsev, lead analyst at OLMA Investment Company, blames Russia’s stock market decline on the worsening conditions on international markets. “The Russian market has reacted early,” he said. The RTS index has dropped by more than 10 percent, which is a sign that traders expect more falls to come. “In the short term, the RTS could drop to between 1,930 and 1,970 points,” Startsev predicted, which he described as “too deep a fall.” The medium-term prospects for the Russian stock market will hinge on US economic performance and investor expectations regarding the American economy. Elena Sharipova, of Renaissance Capital, agrees. “The RTS’s behavior depends on world indices,” she said, also pointing to political events and the “problems that surround oil companies” as factors for the decline, along with Russia’s unimpressive economic performance, including the stagnating manufacturing sector. This factor will be short-lived, though, and fundamentally, the Russian economy is in good shape, according to Sharipova. She does not expect the RTS to fall below 1,900 points. It will be fluctuating between 2,000 and 2,100, rising in the long term, she reckons. The MICEX stock index sank 5 percent as of 11:25 a.m., to 1,494 points. The RTS was down 3.56 percent, falling below the psychological mark of 2,000, reaching 1,993 as of 10:55 a.m.
Als ik het goed begrijp zijn analisten bang dat Mechel het nieuwe Yukos wordt. Misschien als opfrisser; Yukos was de inmiddels genationaliseerde voorloper van Gazprom. De politieke risico's zijn nog steeds groot blijkbaar!
Russian Stocks Plunge on Concern Putin Rebuke Destroys `Haven' By William Mauldin July 25 (Bloomberg) -- Russia's RTS Index fell the most in six months, plunging it into a bear market, after Prime Minister Vladimir Putin's call for an investigation of steelmaker OAO Mechel raised concern the state may tighten control on companies. The 50-stock RTS index sank for a fourth day, dropping 5.6 percent to 1,951.29 in Moscow, or 22 percent below its May 19 high. A drop of 20 percent from a peak within a year is the common definition of a bear market. Putin criticized Mechel billionaire shareholder Igor Zyuzin for not attending a meeting with steelmakers yesterday and said prosecutors will investigate whether the Russian coal and steel producer sold raw materials in Russia at twice the price as abroad. ``It seems that Russia has decided to control everything with centralized oversight,'' said Zina Psiola, who manages $1.1 billion in Russian equities at Clariden Leu AG in Zurich. Putin is seeking to curb inflation, which quickened to an annual 15.1 percent in June, the most since December 2002. He is also pushing his Cabinet to investigate instances of price collusion among oil refiners and food producers. The Micex Index tumbled 5.5 percent today to 1,487.10, its lowest since November 2006 and the biggest retreat today among equity markets included in global benchmarks. Mechel said it would make a statement. Putin's censure of Mechel, combined with falling oil prices, has ``finished'' Russia's reputation among some investors as a ``safe haven'' in the global equity market this year, according to Roland Nash, chief strategist at Moscow-based Renaissance Capital. `Serious Decisions' Some brokers compared the Mechel turmoil with the assault on OAO Yukos Oil Co., which was bankrupted in Putin's presidency after the government claimed more than $30 billion in back taxes. The company's founder, Mikhail Khodorkovsky, is serving eight years in a Siberian labor camp, while some of his company's oil assets were transferred to state-controlled OAO Rosneft. Investors ``fear something worse to come,'' wrote Chris Weafer, chief strategist at UralSib Financial Corp. in Moscow, in a note to investors today. Deputy Economy Minister Andrei Klepach told reporters in Moscow today that ``serious decisions'' for the metals industry will follow Putin's meeting yesterday with steelmakers. He did not elaborate. ``Russia's institutional framework is still a work in progress,'' said Daniel Salter, emerging-markets strategist at ING Groep NV in Russia. ``The corporate sector remains subservient to the whims of the state.'' Sberbank TNK-BP, BP Plc's joint venture in Russia, fell 2.3 percent today to $1.925 on the RTS exchange, a day after Chief Executive Officer Robert Dudley left Russia, citing ``sustained harassment'' amid a shareholder dispute. Stocks of steelmakers and coal producers fell after Putin's comments. OAO Severstal, the biggest steelmaker in Russia, fell 53 rubles, or 12 percent, to 405.60 rubles. OAO Sberbank, Russia's biggest bank, slumped 5.5 rubles, or 7.3 percent, to 70.23 rubles, its biggest drop in six months. The bank said net income in the first quarter climbed 16 percent to 31.1 billion rubles ($1.33 billion), or less than the mean estimate of seven analysts surveyed by Bloomberg News. Rosneft declined 4.9 percent today to 228.20 rubles, for a weekly loss of 9.9 percent. Oil prices have declined 15 percent from their July 3 high. The RTS climbed as high as 2,487.92 on May 19, after Putin, who became prime minister under President Dmitry Medvedev, said oil producers would get tax breaks. Mechel shares gained $4.575, or 20 percent, to $27.415 at 10:32 a.m. in New York, where trading of the stock is heavier than in Moscow, after plunging 38 percent yesterday. The stock is down 52 percent from its May high.
25.07.2008 11:06 July 25. After being heavily criticized by Russian PM, Vladimir Putin, Mechel lost more than 33% of its market cap. Following the session on the NYSE, ADRs for Mechel shares fell by a record value of 37.61% from USD 36.61 to USD 22.84. The company's capitalization went down by USD 5.7 bn, from USD 15.2 bn to USD 9.5 bn. Mechel dragged down the other companies traded on the NYSE: MTS declined 5.47% and Vimpelcom slipped 7.25%. On Thursday, at a meeting on the development of the metallurgical industry in Nizhny Novgorod, Putin criticized Mechel's price policy. "We have a respected company, Mechel. By the way, we had invited its manager and founder, Igor Zyuzin, to participate in the meeting, but he suddenly fell ill. So, in 1Q 2008, the company sold raw materials abroad at prices that were two times lower than domestic prices, and hence the global prices. And where is the margin, I mean the taxes for the state?", the prime-minister said. "Of course, illness is illness", Putin said, but advised Mechel's head to recover faster. "Otherwise, we will have to send a doctor to him to settle all these problems", he warned. "I ask the Federal Antimonopoly Service, or even the Investigative Committee of the Prosecutor's Office, to pay special attention to the problem. We should find out what happens there", Putin said.
July 25. Russian prosecution authorities initiated a criminal case against Mechel subsidiary, Southern Kuzbass for illegal land use, said Oleg Mitvol, deputy head of the Russian environmental watchdog, Rosprirodnadzor. "The case was initiated under article 225 of the Criminal Code concerning the violation of land utilization and protection rules", Mitvol said. He added that Rosprirodnadzor had filed the materials as regards the inspections of the company's activities to the Prosecutor-General's Office with a motion to initiate new cases upon the abuse of authority by the company's management and illegal coal extraction at the block bordering the Urengolsky Novy. "Resulting from illegal land use, the company produced 1.12 mn tons of coal. Thus, the state was impaired damages for slightly less that RUB 1 bn", Mitvol said. He also added that the legal estimation of activities of Rostekhnadozor, who authorized Sourhern Kuzbass to perform coal extraction, is currently being considered. According to Mitvol, the company has illegally tapped that block bordering the Urengolsky Novy since 2006. After the inspection, jointly performed by Rosprirodnadzor and Rostekhnadzor, the company's authorization to work in this territory has been cancelled.
Ik bespeur een vergelijkbare omtrekkende beweging als Yukos in 2004.
Energie is booming business. Rusland wil strategische posities en zeggenschap zeker stellen, maar doet dat op de typisch Russische manier. Je kunt simpelweg beleggen in gespecialiseerde beleggingsfondsen gericht op Rusland en/of de opkomende economieën van Oost Europa. East Capital Russia is daar een voorbeeld van maar ook bijvoorbeeld het Delta Lloyd Donau Fund. Ook kun je combineren met Middle East Funds, zoals Morgan Stanly Emerging Europe & Middle East Fund. Tenslotte wordt de Middle East ook als een groei-regio gezien. Ook de koersen van deze fondsen lijden onder de gevolgen van de kredietcrisis, maar de daling is meer in overeenstemming met die in Amerika (ca 22%) dan met die in Europa (ca. 32%). Een andere goede regio (zie draadje Latijns Amerika) is Latin America.
Momenteel zie je een herstel bij fondsen gericht op Turkije (maar die waren dan ook ca 40% in waarde gedaald) en bij fondsen gericht op india en China. Je kunt op de site van Morningstar naar Categorie Rendementen gaan. Dan zie je de prestaties per regio. Als je op een regio klikt kun je zien welke fondsen daarin begrepen zijn. Je kunt dan ook de individuele fondsen aanklikken en bekijken of via een apart menu deze vergelijken. Fundcoach en andere sites bieden ook mogelijkheden tot vergelijken. Er zijn hier ook meerdere draadjes (w.o. Turkije) waarin je postings aantreft van forumleden.
Het probleem is alleen dat nationalisatie beleggers (terecht) afschrikt en de koersen daardoor dalen. Alleen als dit netjes wordt opgelost (dus niet zoals bij Yukos) is er sprake van enige damagecontrol. Zo niet vergeet het voorlopig dan maar met Rusland.
NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- JP Morgan Chase & Co. analysts downgraded Russian equities to underweight from neutral Tuesday, citing the country's energy exposure, increased risk of unconventional policy measures to control inflation and slowing domestic activity.
EM Trader schreef:
NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- JP Morgan Chase & Co. analysts downgraded Russian equities to underweight from neutral Tuesday, citing the country's energy exposure, increased risk of unconventional policy measures to control inflation and slowing domestic activity.
www.iex.nl/columns/columns_artikel.as...
Einde van de middag ingestapt in enkele honderden turbo's op de RTX. Wel met een scherpe stop loss.
EM Trader schreef:
Einde van de middag ingestapt in enkele honderden turbo's op de RTX. Wel met een scherpe stop loss.
Is er weer iets aan de hand in rusland? De Index staat 4.3% lager.
Dit bericht is van donderdag: RTS panic sets in, locals call the bottom Ben Aris August 7, 2008 Equity investors into Russia are panicking as the leading RTS index tanked to dip below 1800 on Wednesday August 6 having given up all the gains it made this year and a good chunk of those it made in 2006 too. But by Thursday analysts in Moscow were says enough is enough and screwing up their courage to call the bottom of the sell off, saying Russian equities are almost certainly oversold at this point. If they are right this is one of Russia's regular big buying opportunities. Eric Kraus, until recently the head of the Nikitsky Russia Opportunities fund, sent out a typically sardonic issue of his "Truth and Beauty" entitled "Madness in Moscow! Try not to panic" (part of which bne is running on its site today) arguing the selling was overdone on non-existent fears that another Yukos was in the offering or that the Kremlin was intending to start imposing price controls on things like bread and oil. Now more banks are following. UralSib issued a note on Thursday entitled "buy for a bounce, RTS at 1,812." And Alfa Bank likewise: "RTS Strategy - Setting the Stage for a Rally." (see RBL list for both). www.businessneweurope.eu/eastCapitalf...
De beheerder van het east-capitalruslandfonds aan het woord over rusland Volgens hem zijn de verkopers er intussen wel uit, en is rusland erg goedkoop.www.bloomberg.com/avp/avp.htm?N=advis...
Nou, vandaag ook weer een flink negatieve dag zeg. Ik ga toch voorzichtig weer wat opbouwen in Rusland denk ik. Ben er alleen nog niet uit in welk fonds.
Lijkt mij ook dat je wat moet gaan opbouwen. EC dacht al eerder dat je moest instappen. Te vroeg. Toen vonden ze het al goedkoop dus nu gaat het tegen schrootprijzen van de hand daar. KOPEN in hoofdletters.
Nijhuism schreef:
Lijkt mij ook dat je wat moet gaan opbouwen. EC dacht al eerder dat je moest instappen. Te vroeg. Toen vonden ze het al goedkoop dus nu gaat het tegen schrootprijzen van de hand daar. KOPEN in hoofdletters.
Ook jij was te vroeg :-) Maandag ga in voorzichtig bijkopen.
Ik weet niet of ik te vroeg ben. Plannen is heel lastig nu. Als je besluit te kopen heb je het fonds over 2 dagen, dus als jij op 1 dag nauwkeugig je aankopen in fondsen kunt doen, dan heb je misschien gelijk. Maar ik ben ervan overtuigd dat dit een lange termijn aankoopmoment is. Succes allemaal. Mijn aankopen: Rusland, Turkije, Vietnam, India.
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