Carl Icahn, dé activistische aandeelhouder der activistische aandeelhouders, stuurt een brief naar de CEO van Apple Tim Cook. Apple noteert in de pre-market +0,8%. Misschien is dat ook wel logisch, want als grootaandeelhouder heeft Icahn alle redenen om positief te zijn over Apple. Hieronder volgt een bloemlezing uit de brief en wie tijd en zin heeft kan hier het hele verhaal van Icahn lezen.
We believe this advantaged position over Google, the company’s only real competitor, justifies our forecasts for revenue and EPS (earnings per share) growth of 25% and 44% respectively for FY (fiscal year) 2015. This strong competitive position and earnings growth compels us to remind you that Apple, adjusting for net cash, currently sells at a P/E (price to earnings per share ratio) of only 8x our FY 2015 forecast, a significantly lower P/E than a broad market index, the S&P 500, which trades today at a P/E of 15x FY 2015 consensus.
Our forecasted growth for FY 2016 and FY 2017 more than adequately justifies using a P/E multiple of 19x our FY 2015 forecast, which along with net cash values Apple at $203 per share today.
We are simply asking you to help us convince the board to repurchase a lot more, and sooner. We feel compelled to do so because we forecast such impressive earnings growth over the next few years, and therefore we believe Apple is dramatically undervalued in today’s market, and the more shares repurchased now, the more each remaining shareholder will benefit from that earnings growth.
Icahn over de Iphone:
Now that iPhone offers a larger screen size, its price competitiveness in the premium phone market is clear, as a premium Android phone such as the Galaxy S5 and Note 4 sells at a similar price point to the iPhone 6 and 6+ respectively. The choice between them is analogous to the choice between a Volkswagen over a Mercedes at the same price, and unlike a Mercedes, the $649 cost of an iPhone 6 is affordable for the mass market, equating to just $20 per month over a two year period (including a $170 estimated resale value of the phone at the end of two years, excluding financing and taxes).
Over Apple Pay:
Apple, dominant in the premium market, has customers who spend more on average than its peers, and it is therefore unusually well positioned to succeed with Apple Pay where others could not.
Conclusie van Icahn:
The intention of this letter is to communicate two things to you: (1) given the earnings growth we forecast for Apple, we continue to think that the market misunderstands and dramatically undervalues Apple and (2) the excess liquidity the company continues to hold on its balance sheet affords the company an amazing opportunity to take further advantage of this valuation disconnect by accelerating share repurchases.
With more and more funds flowing from mutual funds to index funds (because mutual funds have consistently failed to outperform) the last thing they will want to see is their underperformance exacerbated by remaining underweight Apple as it continues to outperform. As the strength of the earnings growth we forecast materializes, and these funds scramble to correct this mistake, only to find themselves competing in the market to do so, a de facto short squeeze may occur, and we can only hope that the company has repurchased all the shares it can before that happens.
Daar heeft Zerohedge wel een goed punt. Apple heeft het grootste deel van haar cashreserves in belastingparadijzen geparkeerd en mocht Apple dat geld terug willen halen naar de VS volgt er eerst een forse belastingrekening. Mocht Apple opnieuw een aandeleninkoop doen, zoals Icahn voorsteld, gaat het bedrijf dan ook opnieuw geld lenen om dat te doen? Geld lenen is voor Apple voordeliger dan het geld terughalen naar de VS.