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Beursblik: faillissement SVB geen kanarie in de kolenmijn

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42 Posts
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  4. forum rang 7 wiegveld 11 maart 2023 14:48
    Er worden steeds meer stukjes van de puzzel zichtbaar

    Silicon Valley Bank's demise began with downgrade threat

    Sat, March 11, 2023 at 12:11 PM
    By Echo Wang

    (Reuters) - In the middle of last week, Moody's Investors Service Inc delivered alarming news to SVB Financial Group, the parent of Silicon Valley Bank: the ratings firm was preparing to downgrade the bank's credit.That phone call, described by two people familiar with the situation, began the process toward Friday's spectacular collapse of the startup-focused lender, the biggest bank failure since the 2008 financial crisis.

    Friday's collapse sent jitters through global markets and walloped banking stocks. Investors worry that the Federal Reserve's aggressive interest rate increases to fight inflation are exposing vulnerabilities in the financial system.

    Details of SVB's failed response to the prospect of the downgrade, reported by Reuters for the first time, show how quickly confidence in financial institutions can erode. The failure also sent shockwaves through California's startup economy, with many companies unsure how much of their deposits they can recover and worrying about how to make payroll.

    The Moody's call came after the value of the bonds where SVB had parked its money fell due to the higher interest rates.

    Worried the downgrade could undermine the confidence of investors and clients in the bank's financial health, SVB Chief Executive Greg Becker's team called Goldman Sachs Group Inc bankers for advice and flew to New York for meetings with Moody's and other ratings firms, the sources said.

    The sources asked not to be identified because they are bound by confidentiality agreements.

    SVB then worked on a plan over the weekend to boost the value of its holdings. It would sell more than $20 billion worth of low-yielding bonds and reinvest the proceeds in assets that deliver higher returns.

    The transaction would generate a loss, but if SVB could fill that funding hole by selling shares, it would avoid a multi-notch downgrade, the sources said.

    The plan backfired.

    News of the share sale spooked clients, primarily technology startups, that rushed to withdraw their deposits, upending the capital raising. Regulators stepped in on Friday, shutting down the bank and putting it in receivership.

    SVB, Goldman Sachs and Moody's representatives did not immediately respond to requests for comment.

    THE UNRAVELING

    As SVB executives debated when to proceed with the fundraising, they heard from Moody's that the downgrade was coming this week, the sources said.

    SVB sprang into action in the hopes of softening the blow.

    The bank lined up private equity firm General Atlantic, which agreed to buy $500 million of the $2.25 billion stock sale, while another investor said it could not reach a deal on SVB's timeline, the sources said.

    By Wednesday, SVB had sold the bond portfolio for a $1.8 billion loss.

    Moody's downgraded the bank, but only by a notch because of SVB's bond portfolio sale and plan to raise capital.

    Ideally, the stock sale would have been completed by before the market opened on Thursday, to avoid the sale being jeopardized by any declines in SVB's shares once news of the sale got out. But the sources said that was not an option given the tight schedule.

    SVB had not done the preparatory work needed to sign confidentiality agreements with investors who would commit to a deal of such a size. Its lawyers advised the bank that investors would need at least 24 hours to digest new downbeat financial projections and complete the sale, the sources said.

    Reuters could not determine why SVB did not start those preparations earlier.

    SVB's stock plunged on news of the share sale, ending Thursday down 60% at $106.04. Goldman Sachs bankers still hoped they could close the sale at $95, the sources said.

    Then news came of venture capital firms advising startups they had invested in to pull money out of Silicon Valley Bank for fear of an imminent bank run.

    This quickly became a self-fulfilling prophecy: General Atlantic and other investors walked away and the stock sale collapsed.

    General Atlantic did not respond to a request for comment.

    California banking regulators closed the bank on Friday and appointed the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) receiver. The FDIC will dispose of its assets.

    In the past, the regulator has struck deals quickly, sometimes over just a weekend, something that some experts said could happen with SVB.

    (Reporting by Echo Wang in Washington; Editing by Greg Roumeliotis and William Mallard)
  5. forum rang 7 wiegveld 11 maart 2023 15:03
    Nog een stukje en een tegengeluid op artikel hierboven.

    A Silicon Valley Bank short seller explains how he knew the bank was in trouble months ago
    4

    Justin Sullivan/Getty Images
    Jessica Mathews
    Fri, March 10, 2023 at 10:56 PM GMT+1
    In this article:

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    Bill Says It Is No Longer Using Silicon Valley Bank To Process Payment Transactions For Customers
    Less than an hour before the California financial regulator closed Silicon Valley Bank’s doors on Friday, short seller Dale Wettlaufer is walking me through their financials, and laying out some metrics he’s been closely eyeballing for months.

    “I’ve never seen a situation like this change so quickly,” says Wettlaufer, partner at the short-selling shop Bleecker Street Research, which opened its short position into SVB in January.

    Wettlaufer wasn’t talking about the events of the last two and a half days—when a bank run ushered the California financial regulator into its offices to close it down not long after SVB said it was raising more than $2 billion in capital through a share sale. No—Wettlaufer was referring to the last two years.

    In 2021, as the venture market soared to new heights, Silicon Valley Bank was flying high. The bank had long sat at the very heart of the private markets as a lender and banker to some half of the industry's startup companies—not to mention as a prominent lender to venture funds, private equity funds, and a wealth manager to rich entrepreneurs. The bank has a fund of funds, investing in the likes of Accel or Sequoia Capital, and it invests directly in startups itself. The bank effectively touches every part of the private markets.

    Riding on low-interest rates at the beginning of the COVID pandemic, startup funding soared to new heights as startups reeled in billions from venture capitalists and VCs raised enormous multi-billion funds. It was all a win for SVB, as many of those startups would park their newly-won funding at Silicon Valley Bank, then draw from it as needed. Venture funds would borrow from SVB as they waited for limited partner dollars to hit the bank. As Silicon Valley Bank required some of those funds to park money as collateral for those loans, SVB was sitting pretty.

    Non-interest-bearing deposits at the bank soared to $126 billion in 2021, nearly double the $67 billion the bank held in 2020.

    What to do with all that new cash on the balance sheet?

    “In 2022, the liability composition changed so much and so quickly,” Wettlaufer explains as he walks me through his own models.

    At the height of the venture boom, with the bank sitting on so much cash, its long-term securities portfolio grew from $17 billion to $98 billion, Wettlaufer explains. SVB invested that cash at the height of the market.

    Now, interest rates aren’t zero any more, and that long-term securities portoflio is underwater by about $15 billion, Wettlaufer says, meaning that, if SVB had wanted to trade bonds within that long-term portfolio to free up capital, it might have had to recognize somewhere up to $15 billion in the unrealized losses it had reported at the end of 2022.

    But another result of the newfound high-interest rates of 2022 was that Silicon Valley Bank’s own interest expenses would soar to absurd levels—both because of the Fed hikes, which necessitated SVB to up the interest rate it was paying to customers, but also because venture funding slowed down in 2022. That slowdown caused inflows of non-interest-bearing deposits at the bank to fall below outflows of those deposits. That's because startups and other customers were burning cash. Because of this, the composition of SVB deposits changed drastically. Noninterest-bearing deposits fell $45 billion in 2022, forcing the bank to replace those with higher-cost liabilities than what had funded it previously.

    As of Dec. 2021, SVB’s interest expense on its deposits was $62 million. By Dec. 2022, it was $862 million. By the end of this year, Wettlaufer was projecting it to be nearly $4 billion.

    When Silicon Valley Bank posted its annual report at the end of last month, non-interest-bearing deposit levels were clearly deflating. And it seemed like those figures would keep falling. Wettlaufer was projecting non-interest-bearing deposits might go down to $40 billion, from $80 billion, meaning that SVB would have had to come up with $32 billion somewhere else to fill that hole.

    “It's insane. I've never seen anything like this,” Wettlaufer says, noting that the bank may have had to resort to selling anything it could, laying off staffers, or other means to improve the numbers.

    All of that was before the panic set in. On Wednesday, the company said it had sold all of its liquid securities portfolio, recognizing a $1.8 billion loss, and that it was trying to sell shares to garner more than $2 billion in capital. The bank also revealed some updated projections: a decline of somewhere around 30% in net interest income from its 2022 outlook. On Thursday, venture capital investors were warning their portfolio companies to withdraw funds, founders were panicking, and it sparked a good old-fashioned bank run. By mid-afternoon Friday, California regulators had closed Silicon Valley Bank, and the FDIC had been appointed receiver.

    “I've never seen a balance sheet crumble this quickly,” Wettlaufer says.

    Bleecker Street Research, of course, has made out quite nicely from the demise of Silicon Valley Bank (The team won’t comment on how much they made off their short bet).

    But “excited” would be the wrong word to depict how Wettlaufer and Chris Drose, founder of the short-selling fund, are thinking about it. As Silicon Valley Bank crumbled in a mere three days, it left the entire startup ecosystem frozen, and we have yet to see how far the panic will reach—and how many companies and funds will be impacted.

    “You never short something thinking it will go into receivership,” says Drose, who called me shortly after the California regulators had shut down the bank.

    While he doesn’t look twice at a company he’s shorted that has engaged in fraud or where stakeholders have taken advantage of people, Silicon Valley Bank was a real business that found itself in a difficult position, he says. This is different.

    “This is not a contained event…. I don’t know what happens… I don’t know how it all shakes out, or at the end of the day where that money ended up and where it went,” he says.

    And meanwhile, people who put their money in a bank, who trusted it was safe, have been left holding an empty bag.

    “That is certainly not something to be celebrated,” Drose says.

    This story was originally featured on Fortune.com
  9. treasury t 11 maart 2023 16:53
    Silicon Valey Bank: Aan de kredietzijde foutieve inschatting van de 'start up' clienten. Echter nog erger, ook geen benul van wat balansmanagement inhoud. Immers hoe kan het bestaan dat 21 mld 'lang' lopende obligaties door kortlopende passiva waren afgedekt.
    Niks geleerd van de laatste kredietcrisis.Er wordt m i structureel veel te veel belegd/geinvesteerd in lange activa..Als er zich dan aan de kredietzijde een probleem voordoet is het logisch dat spaarders en andere crediteuren hun geld op gaan vragen..Dit heeft niets met FED beleid te maken. Goed balansmanagement houdt in dat je je renterisico s beheerst.

    Groot of klein iedere bank draagt dit risico in zich..
  12. [verwijderd] 11 maart 2023 18:03
    Denk dat dit wel weer met een sisser gaat aflopen zoals altijd. De markten reageren. Maar wat is het alternatief ? Geld van de bank afhalen en dan ?
    Als blijkt dat de val niet zo groot is als eerder gedacht, dan weer storten ?? Wat zal de belastingdienst dan denken? Een behoorlijke transactie afgeschreven en dan weer gestort... En weest eerlijk, wie wil nou een grote som geld overboeken, laat staan het in huis te hebben liggen?
  13. forum rang 6 MIDAS 11 maart 2023 18:11
    quote:

    Geldzaken schreef op 11 maart 2023 18:03:

    Denk dat dit wel weer met een sisser gaat aflopen zoals altijd. De markten reageren. Maar wat is het alternatief ? Geld van de bank afhalen en dan ?
    Als blijkt dat de val niet zo groot is als eerder gedacht, dan weer storten ?? Wat zal de belastingdienst dan denken? Een behoorlijke transactie afgeschreven en dan weer gestort... En weest eerlijk, wie wil nou een grote som geld overboeken, laat staan het in huis te hebben liggen?
    Opgelet!!!
    Alternatief vastgoed en goud.
    Hier in de oliestaten wordt het gratis geld vanuit Europa allemaal omgezet in vastgoed en goud.
  15. forum rang 8 beleggertje2020 11 maart 2023 19:46
    quote:

    Geldzaken schreef op 11 maart 2023 18:03:

    Denk dat dit wel weer met een sisser gaat aflopen zoals altijd. De markten reageren. Maar wat is het alternatief ? Geld van de bank afhalen en dan ?
    Als blijkt dat de val niet zo groot is als eerder gedacht, dan weer storten ?? Wat zal de belastingdienst dan denken? Een behoorlijke transactie afgeschreven en dan weer gestort... En weest eerlijk, wie wil nou een grote som geld overboeken, laat staan het in huis te hebben liggen?
    Denk van niet ! Geld kun je gemakkelijk weer ergens anders in investeren , bijv Virtu of Flowtraders ! Of domweg wachten op een beurskrach en dan big-techs kopen of energieaandelen met goede KW's
  16. [verwijderd] 11 maart 2023 20:01
    quote:

    beleggertje2020 schreef op 11 maart 2023 19:46:

    [...]
    Denk van niet ! Geld kun je gemakkelijk weer ergens anders in investeren , bijv Virtu of Flowtraders ! Of domweg wachten op een beurskrach en dan big-techs kopen of energieaandelen met goede KW's
    Mee eens.

    Europa zijn de banken /toezichthouders ook wat behoudender financieel gezien.

    Daarbij hebben sommige banken/ financiële instellingen eigen aandelen ingekocht (d.m.v. inkoopprogramma) om de winstgevendheid te verbeteren.
    Ondertussen kwam daarbij ook nog eens de hogere rentes bij van cb wat ook de winstgevendheid heeft verbeterd.
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