Van beleggers
voor beleggers
desktop iconMarkt Monitor

Inloggen

  • Geen account? Registreren

Wachtwoord vergeten?

Ontvang nu dagelijks onze kooptips!

word abonnee

Aandeel PostNL Koninklijke AEX:PNL.NL, NL0009739416

  • 2,926 29 jun 2022 17:35
  • 0,000 (0,00%) Dagrange 2,859 - 2,977
  • 1.489.996 Gem. (3M) 5M

PostNL januari 2022 | Business update Q4?

3.597 Posts
Pagina: «« 1 ... 169 170 171 172 173 ... 180 »» | Laatste | Omlaag ↓
  1. forum rang 4 United We Stand 28 januari 2022 22:55
    quote:

    SEVA_ schreef op 28 januari 2022 21:55:

    [...]

    Ik heb ook de bodem gemist. Klein dipje volgende week en gaan.
    Dagelijks zijn er wel mogelijkheden, kijk maar naar het dipje deze middag nav vrees voor meer renteverhogingen in de VS. Waarschijnlijk ook stijgende rentes in Europa eind 2022, vroeger dan aangegeven.
    Een escalatie in Ukraine lijkt mij na vandaag minder waarschijnlijk, ze vinden diplomatiek wel een oplossing waar alle partijen ongeschonden mee weg komen.
    Een goede week voor PostNL en dit zal zich ook zo doorzetten de komende weken, denk ik.
    Vandaag ook weer mijn steentje bijgedragen om de koers naar boven te helpen, idem volgende week hoop ik.
    Goed WE en Succes iedereen!

  2. forum rang 6 SEVA_ 29 januari 2022 07:14
    PostNL: Significant Upside Remains
    Jan. 28, 2022 10:46 AMAMZN, DPSGY, DPSTF
    Summary

    PostNL Parcel is creating significant value for shareholders.
    The ROIC in Parcel is approaching 20%.
    I think PostNL's timid valuation and duopoly in Parcel continue to make the stock's risk/reward attractive.
    Post.nl Van At Amsterdam The Netherlands
    Robert vt Hoenderdaal/iStock Editorial via Getty Images

    As my readers may know I have extensively covered PostNL (OTCPK:TNTFF) (OTCPK:PSTNY) in the past. I was highly optimistic about the undervaluation of this business during the first months of the COVID pandemic when the stock surged from €1 to €3+.

    Cheap
    The bull case on PostNL is quite simple. E-commerce is expanding rapidly and PostNL the biggest parcel delivery platform in the Benelux is a logical beneficiary.

    PostNL expects ttm normalised EBIT to come in between €280 million and €310 million. Consequently, I estimate the ROIC to be approximately 10%+. But I think throwing all assets on one pile is unfair. Most - if not all - of PostNL's value is derived from the parcel platform. I estimate PostNL's parcel ROIC to be just below 20%; that's really good especially at this valuation. At an enterprise valuation of approximately €1.9 billion PostNL is selling at ~8 EV/Normalised Parcel EBIT. Not bad for a company with a high ROIC. I do note the significant cyclicity in the PostNL's business, how sustainable are these earnings?

    In general, we should always think defensible PostNL's business is. Amazon or Bol.com could potentially provide their own delivery - like Amazon does in the US and Germany. This is a significant risk, especially at a high ROIC. Still, the scale does provide significant operational leverage to a point.

    This year the company sells at a significantly lower earnings multiple as mail became incredibly profitable. I personally put very little value to mail, but in the short term, it may be a significant cash flow generator. These cash flows can be invested into parcels at high returns. This is something the market continues to neglect.

    I note when PostNL can continue to invest its (mail) cash flows during the next two or three years in parcels at this return PostNL is an easy multi-bagger.

    Mail miracle
    I believe the market puts a negative value on the mail-side of PostNL. Mid-term the only prudent action management can undertake is to dispose mail to the Dutch government for free and give them the significantly leveraged mail balance sheet too. The reality is that the long-term ROIC of mail remains nothing to write home about since it is probably negative or 0%, and should not be part of a publicly-traded company focused on profits.

    I worry whether management will do the sensible thing, the big risk to this stock is that mail will continue to be a drag on the sum of parts. Even the distraction of managing mail, like labour protests, are not time-worthy of PostNL's management. By disposing mail to the Dutch government even at 0, PostNL's balance sheet improves significantly and its consequential long-term ROIC improves. PostNL is not a charity and should not be operating a soon at best breakeven business. For now, the COVID benefits are nice and provide the company with cheap cash flows, but longer-term I worry significantly about this. The history of the CEO shows - in my opinion - she does not always have shareholder priorities first; I note PostNL rejected a bid by Bpost significantly above even the current price in 2016. PostNL management never seemed to take this bid serious and tried to solve the problems. Still, I am hopeful that the Czech billionaire Daniel Kretinsky with a 25%+ stake in PostNL will make management more value-focused.

    Amazon risk
    Amazon (AMZN) continues to scale aggressively in the Netherlands. Market shares are hard to come by, but by underpricing competition, providing more selection, some estimate that Amazon in a matter of a year is already approaching bol.com in market share. Bol.com is by far the biggest e-commerce website in the Netherlands, or should I say it was.

    Amazon's main delivery partner is DHL (OTCPK:DPSTF). Currently PostNL operates a leading market in the B2C parcel market. Mid-term I suspect market shares of DHL and PostNL will converge to similar numbers. Together they will operate a duopoly.

    The mid-term risk is Amazon becoming the big market leader in Dutch/Benelux e-commerce, and consequently, the smaller services will suffer. PostNL's margin on parcels from small e-commerce websites and services is significantly bigger than the margin on sales from Bol.com or Amazon.com. For PostNL a diverse landscape of different e-commerce providers is vital to long-term high ROIC.

    Exactly this may be at risk. I think it is logical that the market is pricing the stock with relative pessimism as long-term returns are uncertain.

    AFM

    Takeaway
    Still, I think PostNL's timid valuation and duopoly in Parcel continue to make the stock's risk/reward attractive. Disposing PostNL Mail for free mid-term can be a significant value creator as the discount on the sum of parts will decline, partly due to increased confidence in management.
  3. forum rang 7 pietje-2005 29 januari 2022 08:14
    Mooi, SEVA_; bedankt voor plaatsen.
    Dacht het altijd wel, dat splitsing eigenlijk de enige manier is om echt goed te overleven.
    Denk ook dat de verwevenheid van de zaken, ook vooral qua personeel en centra, dit een mogelijk erg dure en moeilijke operatie zal maken; zal een ander management en rvc met een zakelijker kijk op zaken moeten doen ?
    Voorlopig maar' es wat verder stijgen met die koers, want dat hebben de murw gebeukte aandeelhouders wel verdiend ! ;-)
    Succes
  4. forum rang 7 gpjf 29 januari 2022 09:14
    Stukje uit artikel De Telegraaf vandaag dat naar mijn mening juist aangeeft dat Post.nl zo’n optie tot kopen biedt

    Dat wil niet zeggen dat je je portefeuille helemaal met rust moet laten nu de Amerikaanse Fed heeft aangekondigd de rente te gaan verhogen, en de Europese Centrale Bank de vinger boven de uitknop van haar geldpers heeft hangen. „Dit is het moment om je portefeuille te verbreden”, zegt Homan. „Niet alleen de sexy aandelen die de laatste tijd flinke koerssprongen hebben gemaakt – want de verleiding was de laatste tijd groot om alleen daarvan te kopen – maar juist ook fondsen uit andere categorieën om je portefeuille te beschermen tegen de hoge rente. Aandelen die het de laatste tien jaar matig hebben gedaan, komen nu weer in zicht. Dat zijn vaak dividend-aandelen, en die staan in tegenstelling tot de rest van de beurs nog op een klein plusje.”
  5. forum rang 7 aextracker 29 januari 2022 09:26
    quote:

    SEVA_ schreef op 29 januari 2022 07:14:

    PostNL: Significant Upside Remains
    Jan. 28, 2022 10:46 AMAMZN, DPSGY, DPSTF
    Summary

    PostNL Parcel is creating significant value for shareholders.
    The ROIC in Parcel is approaching 20%.
    I think PostNL's timid valuation and duopoly in Parcel continue to make the stock's risk/reward attractive.
    Post.nl Van At Amsterdam The Netherlands
    Robert vt Hoenderdaal/iStock Editorial via Getty Images

    As my readers may know I have extensively covered PostNL (OTCPK:TNTFF) (OTCPK:PSTNY) in the past. I was highly optimistic about the undervaluation of this business during the first months of the COVID pandemic when the stock surged from €1 to €3+.

    Cheap
    The bull case on PostNL is quite simple. E-commerce is expanding rapidly and PostNL the biggest parcel delivery platform in the Benelux is a logical beneficiary.

    PostNL expects ttm normalised EBIT to come in between €280 million and €310 million. Consequently, I estimate the ROIC to be approximately 10%+. But I think throwing all assets on one pile is unfair. Most - if not all - of PostNL's value is derived from the parcel platform. I estimate PostNL's parcel ROIC to be just below 20%; that's really good especially at this valuation. At an enterprise valuation of approximately €1.9 billion PostNL is selling at ~8 EV/Normalised Parcel EBIT. Not bad for a company with a high ROIC. I do note the significant cyclicity in the PostNL's business, how sustainable are these earnings?

    In general, we should always think defensible PostNL's business is. Amazon or Bol.com could potentially provide their own delivery - like Amazon does in the US and Germany. This is a significant risk, especially at a high ROIC. Still, the scale does provide significant operational leverage to a point.

    This year the company sells at a significantly lower earnings multiple as mail became incredibly profitable. I personally put very little value to mail, but in the short term, it may be a significant cash flow generator. These cash flows can be invested into parcels at high returns. This is something the market continues to neglect.

    I note when PostNL can continue to invest its (mail) cash flows during the next two or three years in parcels at this return PostNL is an easy multi-bagger.

    Mail miracle
    I believe the market puts a negative value on the mail-side of PostNL. Mid-term the only prudent action management can undertake is to dispose mail to the Dutch government for free and give them the significantly leveraged mail balance sheet too. The reality is that the long-term ROIC of mail remains nothing to write home about since it is probably negative or 0%, and should not be part of a publicly-traded company focused on profits.

    I worry whether management will do the sensible thing, the big risk to this stock is that mail will continue to be a drag on the sum of parts. Even the distraction of managing mail, like labour protests, are not time-worthy of PostNL's management. By disposing mail to the Dutch government even at 0, PostNL's balance sheet improves significantly and its consequential long-term ROIC improves. PostNL is not a charity and should not be operating a soon at best breakeven business. For now, the COVID benefits are nice and provide the company with cheap cash flows, but longer-term I worry significantly about this. The history of the CEO shows - in my opinion - she does not always have shareholder priorities first; I note PostNL rejected a bid by Bpost significantly above even the current price in 2016. PostNL management never seemed to take this bid serious and tried to solve the problems. Still, I am hopeful that the Czech billionaire Daniel Kretinsky with a 25%+ stake in PostNL will make management more value-focused.

    Amazon risk
    Amazon (AMZN) continues to scale aggressively in the Netherlands. Market shares are hard to come by, but by underpricing competition, providing more selection, some estimate that Amazon in a matter of a year is already approaching bol.com in market share. Bol.com is by far the biggest e-commerce website in the Netherlands, or should I say it was.

    Amazon's main delivery partner is DHL (OTCPK:DPSTF). Currently PostNL operates a leading market in the B2C parcel market. Mid-term I suspect market shares of DHL and PostNL will converge to similar numbers. Together they will operate a duopoly.

    The mid-term risk is Amazon becoming the big market leader in Dutch/Benelux e-commerce, and consequently, the smaller services will suffer. PostNL's margin on parcels from small e-commerce websites and services is significantly bigger than the margin on sales from Bol.com or Amazon.com. For PostNL a diverse landscape of different e-commerce providers is vital to long-term high ROIC.

    Exactly this may be at risk. I think it is logical that the market is pricing the stock with relative pessimism as long-term returns are uncertain.

    AFM

    Takeaway
    Still, I think PostNL's timid valuation and duopoly in Parcel continue to make the stock's risk/reward attractive. Disposing PostNL Mail for free mid-term can be a significant value creator as the discount on the sum of parts will decline, partly due to increased confidence in management.
    Thx.
    Met POST.NL rustig op weg naar voormalige 2021 koershigh Euro 5,-\aandeel en een stabiel groeiend dividend richting Euro 0.50\aandeel.
    De transitie van POST.NL van postbezorger, naar parcel service provider , lijkt te zijn geslaagd. met een stevig marktaandeel door investeren en digitaliseren van services en de "lievelingspositie bij het publiek" herwinnen.

    Postbezorgen is straks een "renderende niche aktiviteit", die blijft bestaan bij de gratie van het verdienmodel van pakket bezorging. Een van de ansolute winstpunten blijkt, dat de factor | arbeid als kostenfactor"wordt gemarginaliseerd , danwel uitbesteed\aanbesteed. Slimme zet van Herma !
  6. forum rang 7 gpjf 29 januari 2022 10:58
    Het is weekend en dan ontstaat er weer tijd voor glazen bol visies , vandaar dat ik nog maar eens teruggrijp naar een uitspraak I ergens in september/ oktober dat ik niet uitsloot dat er in het eerste/ 2 e kwartaal 2022 wanneer de koers ergens tegen de 4,50/ 5 euro zou staan een bod zou komen. We zitten nu in Q 1 en ik blijf nog steeds van mening dat dat alleszins er in zit. Ik reken op meer dan de 5,75 weliswaar want lager zal niet geaccepteerd worden maar een startbod kan natuurlijk iets lager zijn. Enfin je moet toch wat in het weekend hahaha
  7. forum rang 4 analyse_A3CD 29 januari 2022 11:06
    quote:

    SEVA_ schreef op 29 januari 2022 07:14:

    PostNL: Significant Upside Remains
    Jan. 28, 2022 10:46 AMAMZN, DPSGY, DPSTF
    Summary

    PostNL Parcel is creating significant value for shareholders.
    The ROIC in Parcel is approaching 20%.
    I think PostNL's timid valuation and duopoly in Parcel continue to make the stock's risk/reward attractive.
    Post.nl Van At Amsterdam The Netherlands
    Robert vt Hoenderdaal/iStock Editorial via Getty Images

    As my readers may know I have extensively covered PostNL (OTCPK:TNTFF) (OTCPK:PSTNY) in the past. I was highly optimistic about the undervaluation of this business during the first months of the COVID pandemic when the stock surged from €1 to €3+.

    Cheap
    The bull case on PostNL is quite simple. E-commerce is expanding rapidly and PostNL the biggest parcel delivery platform in the Benelux is a logical beneficiary.

    PostNL expects ttm normalised EBIT to come in between €280 million and €310 million. Consequently, I estimate the ROIC to be approximately 10%+. But I think throwing all assets on one pile is unfair. Most - if not all - of PostNL's value is derived from the parcel platform. I estimate PostNL's parcel ROIC to be just below 20%; that's really good especially at this valuation. At an enterprise valuation of approximately €1.9 billion PostNL is selling at ~8 EV/Normalised Parcel EBIT. Not bad for a company with a high ROIC. I do note the significant cyclicity in the PostNL's business, how sustainable are these earnings?

    In general, we should always think defensible PostNL's business is. Amazon or Bol.com could potentially provide their own delivery - like Amazon does in the US and Germany. This is a significant risk, especially at a high ROIC. Still, the scale does provide significant operational leverage to a point.

    This year the company sells at a significantly lower earnings multiple as mail became incredibly profitable. I personally put very little value to mail, but in the short term, it may be a significant cash flow generator. These cash flows can be invested into parcels at high returns. This is something the market continues to neglect.

    I note when PostNL can continue to invest its (mail) cash flows during the next two or three years in parcels at this return PostNL is an easy multi-bagger.

    Mail miracle
    I believe the market puts a negative value on the mail-side of PostNL. Mid-term the only prudent action management can undertake is to dispose mail to the Dutch government for free and give them the significantly leveraged mail balance sheet too. The reality is that the long-term ROIC of mail remains nothing to write home about since it is probably negative or 0%, and should not be part of a publicly-traded company focused on profits.

    I worry whether management will do the sensible thing, the big risk to this stock is that mail will continue to be a drag on the sum of parts. Even the distraction of managing mail, like labour protests, are not time-worthy of PostNL's management. By disposing mail to the Dutch government even at 0, PostNL's balance sheet improves significantly and its consequential long-term ROIC improves. PostNL is not a charity and should not be operating a soon at best breakeven business. For now, the COVID benefits are nice and provide the company with cheap cash flows, but longer-term I worry significantly about this. The history of the CEO shows - in my opinion - she does not always have shareholder priorities first; I note PostNL rejected a bid by Bpost significantly above even the current price in 2016. PostNL management never seemed to take this bid serious and tried to solve the problems. Still, I am hopeful that the Czech billionaire Daniel Kretinsky with a 25%+ stake in PostNL will make management more value-focused.

    Amazon risk
    Amazon (AMZN) continues to scale aggressively in the Netherlands. Market shares are hard to come by, but by underpricing competition, providing more selection, some estimate that Amazon in a matter of a year is already approaching bol.com in market share. Bol.com is by far the biggest e-commerce website in the Netherlands, or should I say it was.

    Amazon's main delivery partner is DHL (OTCPK:DPSTF). Currently PostNL operates a leading market in the B2C parcel market. Mid-term I suspect market shares of DHL and PostNL will converge to similar numbers. Together they will operate a duopoly.

    The mid-term risk is Amazon becoming the big market leader in Dutch/Benelux e-commerce, and consequently, the smaller services will suffer. PostNL's margin on parcels from small e-commerce websites and services is significantly bigger than the margin on sales from Bol.com or Amazon.com. For PostNL a diverse landscape of different e-commerce providers is vital to long-term high ROIC.

    Exactly this may be at risk. I think it is logical that the market is pricing the stock with relative pessimism as long-term returns are uncertain.

    AFM

    Takeaway
    Still, I think PostNL's timid valuation and duopoly in Parcel continue to make the stock's risk/reward attractive. Disposing PostNL Mail for free mid-term can be a significant value creator as the discount on the sum of parts will decline, partly due to increased confidence in management.
    Ware het niet beter, alleen een link te plaatsen in plaats van zulke lappen tekst!:-)
  8. forum rang 4 Mr_Market 29 januari 2022 11:24
    quote:

    gpjf schreef op 29 januari 2022 09:14:

    Stukje uit artikel De Telegraaf vandaag dat naar mijn mening juist aangeeft dat Post.nl zo’n optie tot kopen biedt

    Dat wil niet zeggen dat je je portefeuille helemaal met rust moet laten nu de Amerikaanse Fed heeft aangekondigd de rente te gaan verhogen, en de Europese Centrale Bank de vinger boven de uitknop van haar geldpers heeft hangen. „Dit is het moment om je portefeuille te verbreden”, zegt Homan. „Niet alleen de sexy aandelen die de laatste tijd flinke koerssprongen hebben gemaakt – want de verleiding was de laatste tijd groot om alleen daarvan te kopen – maar juist ook fondsen uit andere categorieën om je portefeuille te beschermen tegen de hoge rente. Aandelen die het de laatste tien jaar matig hebben gedaan, komen nu weer in zicht. Dat zijn vaak dividend-aandelen, en die staan in tegenstelling tot de rest van de beurs nog op een klein plusje.”
    Ik ben de laatste dagen ingestapt in TEVA en Outbrain(open web contextual advertising).
  9. forum rang 6 SEVA_ 29 januari 2022 11:47
    quote:

    gpjf schreef op 29 januari 2022 10:58:

    Het is weekend en dan ontstaat er weer tijd voor glazen bol visies , vandaar dat ik nog maar eens teruggrijp naar een uitspraak I ergens in september/ oktober dat ik niet uitsloot dat er in het eerste/ 2 e kwartaal 2022 wanneer de koers ergens tegen de 4,50/ 5 euro zou staan een bod zou komen. We zitten nu in Q 1 en ik blijf nog steeds van mening dat dat alleszins er in zit. Ik reken op meer dan de 5,75 weliswaar want lager zal niet geaccepteerd worden maar een startbod kan natuurlijk iets lager zijn. Enfin je moet toch wat in het weekend hahaha
    Mochten we in de loop van het jaar op 4,50 + 43 cent div (slot + interim), dan is mijn doel bereikt. Geleerd van de 5,000 afstort.
    Je ziet langzamerhand K zijn plannen ontvouwen. Ook bij zijn andere investeringen. CEO vervangen en focus op aandeelhouderswaarde. Een overname zie ik niet gebeuren, al zou het uiteraard een mooie bonus zijn en niet onder de 6.

    Nog even terug naar de Q4 cijfers: Q4 parcel toch wat teleurstellend. Hadden we 50% van de Covid winst Q421 genomen, dan was EBIT 325-330 geworden. Ik had in mijn eigen conservatieve verwachting niet de tegenwind van BTW en crossborder parcel meegenomen. Wat wel interessant is, is dat naar mijn mening Q422 in vergelijking met Q421 verslagen kan worden. Idem voor Q322.
3.597 Posts
Pagina: «« 1 ... 169 170 171 172 173 ... 180 »» | Laatste |Omhoog ↑

Meedoen aan de discussie?

Word nu gratis lid of log in met je emailadres en wachtwoord

Direct naar Forum

PostNL Koninklijke Meer »

Koers 2,926   Verschil 0,00 (0,00%)
Laag 2,859   Volume 1.489.996
Hoog 2,977   Gem. Volume 5.045.908
29 jun 2022 17:35
Premium

Dal voor PostNL nog niet bereikt

Het laatste advies leest u als IEX Premium-lid

Inloggen Ontdek Premium

Gerelateerde Video's

  1. video thumbnail

    IEX MarketUpdate met PostNL, Arcadis, olie en Italie

    2 december 2016 14:49 - Vimeo

  2. video thumbnail

    IEX Market Update: Heijmans, rente en PostNL

    18 november 2016 16:20 - Vimeo

  3. video thumbnail

    Arend Jan Kamp over onze oud-staatsbedrijven

    26 februari 2016 17:07 - Vimeo

  4. video thumbnail

    FTV - Vooruitblik 2012

    30 december 2011 12:33 - FTV

Lees verder op het IEX netwerk Let op: Artikelen linken naar andere sites

Gesponsorde links