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Aandeel OCI AEX:OCI.NL, NL0010558797

  • 21,000 2 jun 2023 17:35
  • +0,470 (+2,29%) Dagrange 20,630 - 21,000
  • 458.901 Gem. (3M) 636,7K

OCI - 2022: Nu of nooit!

7.660 Posts
Pagina: «« 1 ... 372 373 374 375 376 ... 383 »» | Laatste | Omlaag ↓
  1. forum rang 6 BultiesBrothers 10 december 2022 21:19

    BultiesBrothers schreef op 9 december 2022 00:23:

    Fertilizers prices to remain high, urea to fall on expansions – Fitch
    Jonathan Lopez


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    MADRID (ICIS)–Most fertilizers prices are to remain high by historical standards but urea values will end 2022 lower than previously expected on the back of capacity expansions, US credit rating agency Fitch said on Tuesday.

    Fitch now expects urea prices to average $630/tonne in 2022.

    ICIS’ latest urea price assessments also showed declining prices on the back of poor demand.

    “Our reduced 2022 assumption for urea reflects lower year-to-date prices, which we do not expect to recover for the rest of the year,” said Fitch.

    “We have kept all other assumptions unchanged as we maintain our view that new capacity additions will offset lost exports from China and supply disruptions due to the Russia-Ukraine war.”

    According to Fitch estimates, 3.8m tonnes/year of new urea production capacity will be added globally, excluding China, in 2022.

    In 2023, a further 3.2m tonnes/year will come on stream, and 2.2m tonnes/year will follow suit in 2024, said Fitch.

    The credit rating agency said it still expects most fertilizer prices to fall in 2023, although they are set to remain above mid-cycle levels on the back of high crop price, gas input costs and “still restricted, although improving, supply”.

    Ammonia prices will ease next year on the back of easing supply constraints as new capacity in the Middle East comes on stream, falling feedstock gas prices, and the restart of some European plants turned idled when gas prices were at highs.

    Fitch added ammonia demand is set to be supported by improving affordability and strong crop prices.

    It kept its assumptions for diammonium phosphate (DAP) prices unchanged, although they are set to be lower than in 2022.

    Fitch said it expects DAP exports out of China to rise in the coming two years but stabilised in 2024 at 2m tonnes lower levels than the average for the 2016-2021 period.

    “Phosphate demand will partially recover in 2023, returning to the 2021 levels by 2024 as application rates will rise into the next year. European demand is affected by a regional price premium,” said Fitch.

    “Our assumptions for phosphate rock continue to reflect limited export volumes from Morocco, but other producers, such as Jordan, Syria, Tunisia and South Africa are gradually increasing their market shares.”

    The agency said it expects about 7m tonnes/year of new capacity to come on stream in 2023, most in Russia, Egypt, China, and the US.

    Its price assumptions for potash in 2023 also remain unchanged although, once again, they are expected to be sharply lower than in 2022.

    It said it expects Canadian producer to ramp up idle capacities in coming months, while Russian exports should also help balance the market.

    “[Potash] Price declines in the medium term will be driven by continued improvements in supply availability. Demand will be constrained by farmers prioritising nitrogen and phosphate applications over potassium,” said Fitch.

    “This will put pressure on potash prices over the next two years.”

    Fitch fertilizers prices forecast

    2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 Long-term
    In $/tonne Old forecast New forecast Old New Old New Old New Old New Old New
    Ammonia (FOB Middle East) 1,000 1,000 750 750 450 450 300 300 280 280 280 280
    Urea (FOB Middle East, granular) 650 630 500 500 350 350 270 270 260 260 260 260
    Phosphate rock (FOB Morocco) 270 270 160 160 90 90 90 90 90 90 90 90
    DAP (FOB US Gulf Export) 900 900 550 550 380 380 360 360 360 360 360 360
    Potash (FOB Vancouver) 600 600 460 460 350 350 230 230 230 230 230 230
    Huidige prijzen zitten al rond de 500.
  2. forum rang 6 BultiesBrothers 10 december 2022 21:22
    Nagarjuna's south India urea plant running at 50% capacity due to high gas prices
    Wed, 7 December 2022 at 11:14 am·1-min read
    NEW DELHI (Reuters) - Nagarjuna Fertilizers and Chemicals Ltd is operating its 1.4 million tonnes a year urea plant at Kakinada in southern India at 50% capacity for last two to three months due to high price of imported gas, its Chairman Emeritus said on Wednesday.

    The plant requires 2.7-2.8 million standards cubic meters of gas and the company is getting half of that from local sources at $10 plus per million British thermal units (mmBtu) for its one unit, K.S Raju told Reuters at an industry event.

    "Because of high gas prices our one unit is shut for last two to three months," he said.

    He said the second unit will start operations if prices of imported liquefied natural gas (LNG) decline to $12-14 per mmBtu.

    Dan moet de gasprijs nog /3 gaan om dat te bereiken, op dit moment is ie zo'n 42 euro per mmbtu
  3. forum rang 6 BultiesBrothers 11 december 2022 00:53

    Ik track al enige maanden het ownership overzicht wat simplywallstreet op de site laat zien.
    En wat me opvalt is dat blackrock aardig aan het inkopen is.
    Laatste tijd wat rustig, 0.01% per week, maar sinds 20 nov en nu zijn ze van 1.52% naar 1.75% gegaan, dat is aardige verhoging in korte tijd gezien hun % tempo van aankopen in de maanden daarvoor.
    Dus dat is positief. Wellicht dat deze partijen de koers ondersteunen?
  4. forum rang 6 BultiesBrothers 11 december 2022 16:02


    Company News

    News Wire
    Dec 7, 2022

    Europe’s Nitrogen Industry Faces New Threats After Reopening
    Veronika Gulyas, Bloomberg News

    An employee inspects fertilizer
    An employee inspects fertilizer , Photo: Akos Stiller

    (Bloomberg) -- Hungary’s only nitrogen fertilizer maker resumed full production last month as gas prices eased, but warned that potential disruptions next year could threaten crop yields.

    Nitrogenmuvek Zrt. was one of the first European producers to come back online, after the plant was idled in August as Russia squeezed gas flows and prices spiked. Gas is a key feedstock for nitrogen fertilizers and about 70% of Europe’s ammonia capacity was offline in September.

    While gas prices have dropped to less than half their August peak, 2023 will be the first full year with little, if any, Russian gas coming to Europe, Chief Strategy Officer Zoltan Bige said in an interview. The plant, which mainly produces calcium ammonium nitrate from local dolomite, has already been idled for 210 days this year.

    “I am not sure if we can avoid shutdowns in the first quarter as risks are still existing,” Bige said. “Market activity is starting to pick up, but it’s still not in line with normal conditions.”

    Ammonium nitrate prices reached record levels earlier this year as European plants were idled and Russian exporters struggled with logistical challenges following the invasion of Ukraine. Moscow is trying to reopen an ammonia export pipeline that runs from Togliatti to the port of Odesa in Ukraine, but some buyers are shunning Russian supplies regardless of availability, according to Bige.

    READ: Meet the Fertilizer Tycoon at Core of Kremlin Grain Talks

    “Having access to any additional ammonia can be helpful,” Bige said. Still, “receiving gas is more crucial than having this ammonia because we do have our ammonia capacities in Europe.”

    About 30% of so-called NPK fertilizer, which contains essential nutrients for crop quality, is missing from the European market as shipments from Russia have been disrupted, Bige said.

    Lower fertilizer application threatens to curb European crop yields and inflate food prices, according to Adrien Tamagno, an analyst at Berenberg.

    The nitrogen fertilizer deficit can’t be plugged by imports of urea and logistics challenges in the first quarter are likely to underline the importance of local plants for European farmers, Bige said.

    “There’s still a good chance to deliver good volume of yields this coming season if the right form of nitrogen is applied in right time and amount,” he said. “It will be crucial in the spring to have the product delivered on time.”

    --With assistance from Gem Atkinson.

    ©2022 Bloomberg L.P.
  5. forum rang 6 de schaatser 11 december 2022 19:30
    Alles gelezen. bedankt Bulties voor het delen.
    Ik weet het zonet nog niet dat de prijzen van de kunstmest producten gaan dalen.
    We zitten in het opstarten van producties.
    Aan de andere kant worden bestellingen uitgesteld.
    De boeren hebben geld om bestellingen te plaatsen en rekenen ook voor de oogst 2023 op goede prijzen. M.a.w. het water staat ze niet tot de lippen en zij gaan echt de benodigde kunstmest hoeveelheid voor 2023 veilig stellen.
    Deze maanden is het armpje drukken tussen vraag en aanbod.
    Ik zelf reken nauwelijks op daling van de prijzen en zolang de oorlog duurt kan het ook zomaar naar hogere prijzen leiden.
  6. forum rang 6 BultiesBrothers 11 december 2022 19:43

    de schaatser schreef op 11 december 2022 19:30:

    Deze maanden is het armpje drukken tussen vraag en aanbod.

    Dat denk ik dus ook.
    Prijzen zijn nu doorgeschoten naar beneden vanwege lage vraag.
    En er moet nog steeds flink ingekocht worden voor spring season.
    EN OCI is niet dusdanig gedaald op basis van lagere kunstmestprijzen. Dus dat is positief.
    Dus bij enige stijging, zou je denken dat OCI wel weer de rit omhoog weer te pakken. Wellicht de weerstand van 40 doorbreken? Anderzijds weet ik niet wat te gaan doen als we wel aan gapfilling doen van 39.6
  7. forum rang 6 BultiesBrothers 11 december 2022 20:07
    Odessa gebombadeerd, stroomvoorzienig geraakt.
    Ook daardoor weinig kans dat die ammonia pijplijn weer in gebruik gaat?
    De graanexport loopt vertraging op hoor ik net bij NOS, omdat ie allemaal niet op noodaggegraten door kunnen blijven gaan.
    We gaan het zien morgen.
  8. forum rang 6 BultiesBrothers 12 december 2022 16:32

    eduardo3105 schreef op 12 december 2022 16:27:

    Fertiglb gaar ook niet lekker

    4,18 -3.24%

    laagste koers sinds 2 maart !!
    Denk dat Fertiglobe morgen rebound.
    Er is nu een steun op 4.16, koers van juli dit jaar.
    Maar idd, Fertiglobe lijkt wel afgewaardeerd te zijn als een groei aandeel.
7.660 Posts
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