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Aandeel Galapagos AEX:t20925, BE0003818359

  • 68,260 26 feb 2021 17:39
  • 0,000 (0,00%) Dagrange 67,140 - 69,720
  • 425.894 Gem. (3M) 582,5K

Galapagos juli 2019

5.838 Posts
Pagina: «« 1 ... 148 149 150 151 152 ... 292 »» | Laatste | Omlaag ↓
  1. forum rang 6 MrBerth 17 juli 2019 19:31

    B...K schreef op 17 juli 2019 18:01:


    En nu nog die andere grotere gap.die zal gedicht moeten worden.
    Wie weet morgen al.Maar dan moet het wel heel rap naar beneden gaan morgen

    Bij Galapagos staan nog 5 gaps open:

    15-7-2019 128,20 - 145,50 (13,5%) (dh: 154,60 +20,8%) (Gilead partnership)
    29-3-2019 84,95 - 95,20 (12,1%) (dh: 103,80 +22,96%) (Finch 1/3)
    10-8-2017 63,44 - 66,65 (5,1%) (dh: 78,26 +23,36%) (Gilead - filgotinib deal)
    15-2-2016 34,44 - 35,60 (3,3%) (dh: 38,44 +11,61%) (??)
    15-4-2015 24,82 - 27,7 (11,6%) (dh: 30,10 +21,27%) (Nasdaq introductie?)

    Op die van 15-2-2016 na zijn het allemaal dagen waarop de koers intraday +20% pluste en de gap in 3 vd 5 gevallen >10% bedroeg. Het lijken dus allemaal runaway gaps te zijn. Of verwacht je dat we die van 29-3-2019 en 15-4-2015 ook nog gaan sluiten?

    Weet iemand wat de reden was van de 15-2-2016 jump?
  2. forum rang 10 voda 17 juli 2019 19:46
    Galapagos: Our Predictive Tools See Upside Despite Surge
    Jul. 17, 2019 1:16 PM ET|1 comment | About: Galapagos NV (GLPG), Includes: GILD

    GLPG has gone up hugely in the last couple of years.

    By next year, its lead drug filgotinib will be in the market, and a long tailed pipeline will start bearing fruit.

    Despite the surge, the stock looks like a buy.

    This article introduces readers to our analytic process for clinical-stage biopharma stocks. We call it the input-output machine or IOMachine.

    This idea was discussed in more depth with members of my private investing community, The Total Pharma Tracker. Start your free trial today »

    Since we initiated coverage on Galapagos (GLPG), the stock has more than tripled, riding the filgotinib wave towards an NDA in rheumatoid arthritis, which is likely this year. Gilead's (GILD) additional stake purchase has also helped. Filgotinib, a Humira-competitor and selective JAK inhibitor, is being investigated in over 10 indications in over 2 dozen trials, with three of them - RA, ulcerative colitis, and Crohn's disease - in phase 3 stages or beyond. A number of parameters differentiate filgotinib from Humira or other pan-JAK inhibitors, and while Humira becoming generic in 2016 is a hurdle for Galapagos, there is still going to be strong demand for this novel treatment method. So, although GLPG does not own filgotinib and has out-licensed it to Gilead, there is substantial potential for the company in terms of milestones and royalties.

    In our latest article, where we valued the company, we said:

    Assumptions for the model include prediction of peak revenue of 4 billion Euro for Filgotinib by 2027 based on a conservative outlook of Humira's revenue, which stood at $18 billion in the last fiscal. We expect the drug to be launched in 2020 and start off with a modest 400 million Euro in annual sales and report 40% annual growth, which will taper off in the succeeding years until it reaches its patent expiration close to 2030. Further, the valuation has been done conservatively whereby Galapagos will receive 20 percent royalty on total revenue generated."

    We also said:

    These assumptions provided us with a Terminal value of the company at €7.6 billion. Our base case stock valuation stood at €159, which is equivalent to approximate $185 at the current exchange rate. This valuation gives us approximately 50 percent upside from current levels. Our bull case presents a price target of €201 or about $235 at today's exchange rate. This represents an almost 100% increase from current prices."

    We did say that this valuation is conservative, and the fact that current price of the stock, at around $180 and that too well before approval, is almost touching our base-case scenario shows that we were, indeed, fairly conservative. We also correctly predicted the launch year to be 2020, which is going to be the case assuming approval. Royalty rates were, also, taken as 20% where the agreement was for between 20% and 30% in all geographies. Moreover, we did not put any value on the rest of its pipeline, which is ultra conservative because as filgotinib proves its value, the rest of the pipeline automatically elevates itself to higher valuation terms.

    Putting all that together, we think even our bull case scenario - $235 - is too conservative. Here, we are looking at the incubation of a major big pharma in the biopharma world. We will use our 8-point IOMachine methodology to analyse the investibility of this biopharma concern.

    The IOMachine methodology in brief: What can be analysed
    Investors wishing to learn healthcare/biopharma investing should divide the entire healthcare sector into two segments - those that make drugs (biopharma) and those that don't.

    Or, to use another properly analytic characterisation - those that run clinical trials and those that don't.

    Now, these two characterisations are not exactly co-terminal. For example, a company that develops medical devices falls into the non-drug making segment; however, many device makers will run clinical trials.

    Other non-drug making healthcare companies would include services, hospitals, insurances, healthcare REITs, and so on.

    The IOMachine methodology analyses only those companies that run clinical trials.

    Among drugmakers, we must also distinguish between companies with approved drugs and companies in clinical stage. Approved drugs do not fall under the ambit of the IOMachine system. Once a drug candidate becomes a product, it is more about financial analysis than clinical analysis.

    We should also know that this analysis is a one drug-one indication analysis. When a company has multiple drugs in the pipeline, IOMachine only analyses the lead drug/indication combo, defined as the lead indication where the lead drug in the leading trial stage has the earliest catalyst. If a company has multiple lead drugs in similar stages of development, each indication needs to be analysed separately.

    The methodology
    Whether a biopharma stock is investible - on the basis of any particular lead indication - depends on 8 specific factors; no more, no less. These are catalysts, trial data, cash runway, insider/fund buy/sells, ownership of drug, patent coverage, market potential, and competition. We take the "cash runway, insider/fund buy/sells, ownership of drug, patent coverage" combo, and label them together as Execution, and the last two, we simply call Competition.

    A catalyst is anything that moves a stock - in this case, phase 3 data readout or PDUFA. There could be any number of other catalysts, but these are the clinically predictable ones. If PDUFA is the catalyst, previous phase 3 data is the predictive parameter; if phase 3 data readout is the catalyst, prior efficacy data, usually found in phase 2 data (with some exceptions), is the data you want to analyse.

    Our fundamental insight about biopharma investing is:

    No efficacy data = un-analysable = un-investible

    Het gehele artikel is te lezen via de link:
  3. forum rang 7 FluitendeVogels 17 juli 2019 20:00
    Hoeveel procent stijging hadden we tot op heden ook alweer?

    Mag van mij alle kanten opgaan, en zelfs als ik even in de min sta, ook goed, ik heb alle vertrouwen in Gala.

    Koers wordt nu mogelijk ook even speelbal van verschillende partijen die belang hebben bij een bepaalde koers. De omzetten zijn nu ook lager, dus eenvoudiger te manipuleren. Belangrijkste voor mij is het signaal dat de stijging er was bij hoge omzetten.

  4. forum rang 7 FluitendeVogels 17 juli 2019 20:09

    durobinet schreef op 17 juli 2019 20:02:

    Prima maar waar wordt die koers nu gemaakt?
    slot misschien wel weer $173.50 of zo.

    Who knows :) Maandag kan je zeggen dat de koers in NL gemaakt werd, gisteren mogelijk ook, en dan een andere dag, mogelijk vandaag is het weer de VS. Dat denk ik ervan....
  5. Galafilgo 17 juli 2019 20:36

    Tulum schreef op 17 juli 2019 20:30:

    Artikel met veelbelovende inhoud. Bijkopen ga ik niet meer doen. Het kan ook altijd anders lopen dan je denkt (algehele marktmalaise), maar mijn huidige stukken blijven bij het baasje.

    alleen jammer dat de artikelen van Seeking geen enkele invloed op welk aandeel dan ook hebben
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Koers 68,260   Verschil 0,00 (0,00%)
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26 feb 2021 17:39
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