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voda
0
Video: Galapagos sluit fantastische deal

(ABM FN-Dow Jones) Analist Jos Versteeg van Insinger Gilissen vindt dat Galapagos een heel goede deal met Gilead heeft gesloten en verhoogt zijn koersdoel naar 200,00 euro.

Met de deal weet CEO Onno van de Stolpe ook de door hem zo gewenste zelfstandigheid en onafhankelijkheid te verankeren, aldus Versteeg.

www.youtube.com/watch?v=hXf-sIjVNlg

Door: ABM Financial News.
info@abmfn.nl
Redactie: +31(0)20 26 28 999

© Copyright ABM Financial News B.V. All rights reserved.
Wall Street Trader
0
Dan O’Day, CEO of #Gilead and myself celebrating
the signing of the transforming
alliance between Gilead and #Galapagos.

Fantastic deal for both companies!


Bijlage:
Lama Daila
0
thefly.com/permalinks/entry.php/id293...

Galapagos price target raised to $188 from $121 at Stifel Stifel analyst Adam Walsh raised his price target on Galapagos (GLPG) to $188 from $121 after the company announced a 10-year global research and development collaboration with Gilead (GILD), calling the collaboration "a win-win to both companies." The deal, which he thinks will keep Gilead and likely other buyers from acquiring Galapagos in the next 10 years, gives the latter a deep cash position and support to expand and accelerate its research and clinical programs while it is able to maintain its "unique culture, R&D platform and proven leadership," according to Walsh, who keeps a Buy rating on Galapagos shares.
winx09
1
quote:

avantiavanti schreef op 15 juli 2019 12:57:


SVB Leerink 15 juli 2019

Galapagos, Long Recognized as Technical Powerhouse, Rewarded
with Independence



Aan een ieder die dit rapport nog niet gelezen heeft, de "our take" paragrafen krijg ik vochtige ogen van. Aanbevolen dus.
Pl4
0
quote:

winx09 schreef op 15 juli 2019 21:27:


[...]

Aan een ieder die dit rapport nog niet gelezen heeft, de "our take" paragrafen krijg ik vochtige ogen van. Aanbevolen dus.


Ja prachtig stuk.

Die gaan met een hoog koersdoel komen.
Wall Street Trader
1
KBC Securities Galapagos (Buy) PT EUR 145

(Recentste herziening info 15-04-2019)

Bijlage:
asti
0
quote:

winx09 schreef op 15 juli 2019 21:27:


[...]

Aan een ieder die dit rapport nog niet gelezen heeft, de "our take" paragrafen krijg ik vochtige ogen van. Aanbevolen dus.

Het is een mooi stukje.

De Leerink analisten hebben eerder uitgebreid over GLPG geschreven en zijn erg bullish, maar er zijn m.i. wel betere analyses gemaakt.

Ze hebben het bijvoorbeeld onder andere over hun verwachtingen van GLPG1972. In het rapport uit maart hebben ze dezelfde in percentages uitgedrukte kansen (volgens hun) op verschillende commerciële profielen van filgotinib in UC gebruikt bij GLPG1972 in OA. Moet wel per ongeluk zijn. Het OA prog is, zoals ze zelf ook aangeven, te karakteriseren als een high-risk, high-reward programma. Voorlopig is het qua risicoprofiel in ieder geval niet vergelijkbaar met filgotinib in UC.

Overigens gingen/gaan ze bij het corrigeren voor risico bij filgotinib uit van een goedkeuringskans van 68%. Onzin natuurlijk. Ook dwingt de logica tot een andere benadering wat betreft de correctie op schattingen in verschillende scenario's commercieel gezien.
JosVos
0
Avisol Capitol Partners
EUR 201
17 juli 2019

[url]https://seekingalpha.com/article/4275493-galapagos-predictive-tools-see-upside-despite-surge?dr=1[/url]
Wall Street Trader
1
KBC Securities Galapagos (Buy) PT EUR 195

UPDATE: Galapagos en Gilead kondigden recent een nieuwe alliantie aan tussen de twee bedrijven met een 10-jarig commitment op het vlak van inkomsten/kostenverdeling. Dit partnership kan beschouwd worden als een poging om synergie te genereren - in plaats van wrijving door een overname - in een sector waar menselijk kapitaal en innovatie de sleutel tot succes zijn. Naar aanleiding hiervan nam KBC Securities het waarderingsmodel nauwer onder de loep.

De visie van KBC Securities: Met zo'n grote overeenkomst worden zowat alle parameters voor de assumpties van KBC Securities-analist Lenny Van Steenhuyse - op het gebied van omzet, totale kosten, risicodeling, cashflow, cash burn, marktaandeel van de producten, piekverkopen - door elkaar geschud. Hij laat weten dat er met de waardering toch nog voorzichtig omgesprongen moet worden, gezien geen van beide bedrijven een nieuwe guidance heeft gepubliceerd. Hij had al een eerste stap gezet om zijn waardering aan te passen, door het koersdoel recent te verhogen van 128 euro naar 145 euro op basis van de cash inflow van de transactie. Vandaag verhoogt hij zijn koersdoel op 6 maanden naar 195 euro (op basis van 199 euro som-der-delen model en 192 euro DCF), nu hij de volledige nieuwe dealvoorwaarden op zijn model toepaste.

avantiavanti
5

Extract SVB Leerink 22 juli 2019

Raising PT from $150 to $200

GALAPAGOS NV
NASDAQ: GLPG / OUTPERFORM


On the way to TOLEDO, GLPG remains a big buy

Bottom Line:
We are adjusting our PT to reflect added cash, partnership agreements and our adjusted calibrated views on the pipeline. Our current PT and valuation do not include the Toledo programs, as we wait for details.

Our conviction.
We remain convinced and inspired by GLPG’s technical prowess coupled with efficient decision making and nimble operations. We see filgotinib as a likely winner, despite a crowded market, due largely to its safety profile; any change in safety, particularly cardiovascular signals, would change our position.
The IPF program is exciting with a real shot at transforming the treatment space. The BI deal has further strengthened our belief in the value of the pathway, program and asset.

We have adjusted our views on the osteoarthritis (OA) program for GLPG1972. While we previously had a very low probability of success for a presumably large prize, after MEDACorp KOL conversations we have increased our probability of success but added a needed Phase 2b program, delaying time to launch, and have reduced the size of the targeted population. We believe this adjusted approach reflects the state of the field, including expected learnings from large cohort studies on OA structure/function likely to be published in the next 18 months that will aid in improving patient selection and targeting, translating into an increased probability of success for GLPG1972.

We don’t know the identity of TOLEDO. We only know that GLPG has initiated a large, parallel set of studies with diverse chemical entities in pursuit of this pathway across indications. As many know, some pathways are amenable to benefits across multiple indications, while others, despite their preclinical promise remain restricted to a few. We will revisit Toledo as we learn more about it.

Raising PT to $200.
We are raising our 12-month price target to $200 per share, up from $150, following the infusion of $5.1B in total cash. The impact of this additional cash is partially offset by the addition of ~6.9M shares, the conversion of projected revenues into royalties for GLPG1690 and GLPG1205 in idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis and GLPG1972 in osteoarthritis, and by changes in operating expenses to reflect expected expansion of R&D activity. The inclusion of probability adjusted milestones into our model adds additional incremental upside to our valuation. Small modifications to the filgotinib agreement add modestly to our valuation of the drug. We have pushed back our projected launch date for GLPG1972 into 2028 to allow for completion of a Phase 2b trial as a follow-up to the ongoing Phase 2 ROCELLA trial.

Modeling for growth.
Our model focuses on current clinical stage programs for which we have high conviction, including filgotinib in RA and IBD and GLPG1690 in IPF. We include a modest valuation for GLPG1972? in osteoarthritis, underpinning our view of the option-like risk-reward trade off for this asset, but with a long-dated time horizon to the market. Not included in our valuation are potential indication expansions for filgotinib into psoriatic arthritis and ankylosing spondylitis, both of which are expected to enter Phase 3 trials in the upcoming months, as well as GLPG’s highly prized Toledo program, an immunity and inflammation (I&I) program developing multiple novel molecules that GLPG believes will disrupt the treatment paradigm in as many as eight inflammatory diseases. These and other pipeline programs will be added into our valuation as new information is made public.

Our take.
Several catalysts in the next twelve months create upside potential for GLPG. The identification and detailing of Toledo, the futility read for GLPG1690, filgotinib’s submission, and upadacitinib’s approval/label are all on our watch list. Major downside risks to our PT include a better than expected labelling for upadacitinib, unexpected safety findings for filgotinib and a futility surprise for GLPG1690. The Toledo program holds significant potential upside to our thesis.
avantiavanti
2
Het volledige SVBLeerink rapport van 22 juli

Recalibrating our model

Three recent events have impacted our model. The first was the announced research and development agreement with GILD (MP). The second was a conviction changing event for GLPG1690 in which Boehringer Ingelheim (BI) announced a potentially $1.1B deal to license Phase 1 ATX inhibitor BBT-887 from Korea’s Bridge Biotherapeutics (BBIO). The third was discussions with KOLs about OA that led us to reevaluate our projections for GLPG1972. In the absence of the GILD agreement, the BI licensing deal alone led us to shift the market profile of
GLPG1690 within our model towards a more meaningful profile, which would have resulted in a ~13% increase in our valuation for the drug and would have raised our prior PT from $150 to $165 per share.

Our reevaluation of GLPG1972 in OA based on conference and MEDACorp KOL
discussions led us to build in additional time for a Phase 2b study to identify a more targeted patient population in OA. By allowing 3 years for a Phase 2b trial, we have pushed our projected launch date for GLPG1972 from 2025 to 2028, while at the same time restricting the potential patient population. This reduced our valuation for GLPG1972 from ~$9.5 per share to ~$3 per
share and would have reduced our adjusted PT from $165 down to $158.

The collaboration agreement with GILD brings a $5.1B cash infusion ($3.95B upfront and $1.1B in equity) and established licensing and royalty based collaboration and commercialization agreements between the two companies for any drugs that emerge from GLPG’s pipeline. The filgotinib agreement was updated to give GLPG 50% of development efforts for the drug and 50% commercialization efforts in the E.U. The cash alone adds about $77 per share to our price target,
after adjusting for new shares issued. The cash alone would have increased our price target from $158 to $235 per share.

The reconciliation between $235 per share and our current $200 price target is primarily related to the impact the GILD agreement had on our valuation of GLPG1690 and on the operations projections for the company. Shifting GLPG1690 into 20%-24% tiered royalties for GLPG reduces our overall valuation for this asset significantly from about $135 per share to $41 per share, after
share dilution. This was also partially driven by an update to our market model for GLPG1690 in IPF where we pushed the projected launch date back by one year from 2022 to 2023. The lost valuation in IPF is undoubtedly compensated for by the upfront cash received in the agreement.
Recognition of this cash as income over a 10 year period as well as changes in projected taxes more than offsets increased R&D expenditures in our model, resulting in reduced operations valuation from ($113) to ($45) per share. Finally, our valuation for filgotinib is increasing from $85
per share to $92 per share reflecting the increased commercialization role GLPG will play in the E.U. Other incremental differences reconciling the initial and final PTs were due to further dilutive impacts of additional shares issued in the deal.

Filgotinib inches higher on R&D collaboration update

GLPG’s collaborative partner GILD announced plans to file an NDA for filgotinib by the end of the year, setting filgotinib on course for a potential market launch in 2H20. We assign a 90% probability of success for filgotinib in RA and a 68% probability of success for filgotinib in IBD
with market launches projected in 2H21 in ulcerative colitis and 2H22 in Crohn’s disease. Our current valuation for filgotinib of $92 per share is a weighted average of four separate profiles, and falls between the incremental and meaningful market profiles. About ~50% of the valuation for
filgotinib is derived from RA with about 30% of the valuation derived from ulcerative colitis, and about 20% derived from Crohn’s disease. If we assume approval in all three indications, the current valuation for filgotinib under an incremental profile would be $87 per share vs $128 per share under a meaningful profile. This brackets the current valuation for filgotinib under the two
most likely market scenarios should the drug get full approval in all three indications and suggests a $36 upside versus $5 downside depending on the ability of GILD and GLPG to capture market share.
Additional potential upside is possible with Phase 3 trials expected to commence in psoriatic arthritis and ankylosing spondylitis over the next year.
avantiavanti
1
Vervolg SVB Leerink

GLPG1690: high conviction in IPF and growing

Our high conviction for GLPG’s autotaxin (ATX) inhibitor GLPG1690 in IPF continues to grow with the announcement this week that IPF market leader Boehringer Ingelheim has entered into a licensing agreement to develop and commercialize Bridge Biotherapeutics Phase 1 ATX inhibitor BBT-887. We maintain a high degree of enthusiasm for ATX as a therapeutic target in IPF based on the series of experiments and clinical trials that initially identified and then
demonstrated proof of concept for targeting the LPA pathway. This began with ground breaking translational work that initially identified the LPA pathway as a target in bleomycin mouse models.
Proof of concept targeting this pathway was provided by a Phase 2 trial for BMS-986020 that demonstrated forced vital capacity (FVC) benefit in IPF patients despite compound, not pathway, specific toxicity observed with the drug. GLPG1690 showed evidence of preliminary efficacy in the 12 week Phase 2 Flora study that was supported by functional respiratory imaging analysis showing structural benefits in patients treated with the drug vs placebo.
Similar to the FDA’s outlook, we view combination treatment as the future approach to treating IPF. With the ongoing Phase 3 ISABELLA trials designed to test GLPG1690 as add-on to local standard of care in IPF, we see a pathway forward where approval results in GLPG1690 becoming the backbone for combination therapy with nintedanib or pirfenidone. From a pricing perspective, we view IPF as similar to cancer with nintedanib and pirfenidone already commanding list prices of $9562 and $9890 per month, respectively.
We have updated our projected commercial launch for GLPG1690 to 2023, from 2022, while slightly increasing pricing estimates within our IPF model to $140K per year in 2023. In our base case scenario (meaningful profile), we project $2.4B in peak U.S. sales in 2028 with penetration rates reaching 30% in patients with moderate disease vs 24% and 21% penetration in patients with mild or severe disease. This results in a risk adjusted $41 per share asset value for
GLPG1690 based on a ~41% probability of approval.
An extreme assumption of 100% probability of approval produces a probability weighted average of $123 per share value attributed to GLPG1690. However, different valuations are plausible depending on how well the IPF market can be unlocked. For breakthrough, meaningful, and incremental profiles, the present day value for GLPG1690 would be $198, $137, and $78 per share, respectively. This indicates the upside potential for this drug under the most likely
scenarios is yet to be fully unlocked within our overall valuation for GLPG. Breakthrough and meaningful profiles occur in scenarios where GLPG1690 becomes the backbone drug for combination standard of care with breakthrough profile unlocking additional patients than would be treated under a meaningful profile. The incremental profile would occur if GLPG1690 fails to become established as backbone therapy in combination standard of care treatment, and instead
is used occasionally in combination treatments or as a monotherapy, gaining partial share of the overall IPF market.
avantiavanti
2
Vervolg SVBLeerink

Revising regulatory pathway projections for GLPG1690 in osteoarthritis

Osteoarthritis (OA) represents a major market opportunity for any company able to get approval for a disease modifying osteoarthritis drug (DMOAD). However, the FDA has set a very high bar for success. Not only do DMOADs need to show structural benefits within the joint, they must also demonstrate symptomatic benefits for pain, function, and stiffness. Discussions with MEDACorp
KOLs have made it clear that more work is needed to tighten understanding of the relationship between joint structure and symptomatic outcomes in OA and the degree of heterogeneity in the disease. We anticipate these kinds of studies will be published in the next 12 to 18 months. Demonstrating the structural and symptomatic relationship in clinical trials for DMOADs is difficult because DMOADs focus on rebuilding or preserving joint structure rather than directly improving symptomatic outcomes. In such cases, the MEDACorp KOLs believe demonstrating these relationships may likely require longer and larger studies than is typically used in proof of concept studies in OA. While these KOLs believe focusing on subpopulations of OA patients with specific OA phenotypes may improve trial outcomes, identifying which are the right subpopulations or
phenotypes to target still needs to be better understood.
Based on these discussion we are pushing back our projected launch for GLPG1972 from 2025 to 2028. GLPG1972’s mechanism of action as an ADAMTS-5 inhibitor is promising and preclinical evidence provocative in demonstrating structural benefits. We believe GLGP1972 will meet structure related endpoints in the Phase 2 ROCELLA trial, including the primary endpoint on change in cartilage thickness at 52 weeks, but will fail to meet secondary symptomatic endpoints.
However, the demonstrated structural benefits will provide the proof-of-concept needed to pursue additional development of the drug. A follow-up Phase 2b trial will then be needed to identify the right OA patients that should be targeted in a pivotal trial.
Despite our evolving vision on the regulatory path for GLPG1972, we continue to view it as having high upside optionality. We are currently attributing ~$2 per share to GLPG1972. While we believeGLPG1972 may eventually gain approval in an OA subpopulation, this may still result in a drug with blockbuster potential given the overall size of the OA market and the high demand for
DMOADs. Perhaps just as valuable in the intermediate term are the lessons learned during development of GLPG1972 that can be applied to improve development of future OA drugs.
GLPG has indicated their intent to re-engage their discovery platform to identify new potential drug targets in OA. ROCELLA and future trials for GLPG1972 will undoubtedly inform development of new OA drugs candidates that emerge from GLPGs discovery efforts.

[verwijderd]
0
IPF 1690 : we project $2.4B in peak U.S. sales in 2028

Dat begint erop te lijken...
avantiavanti
4
winx09
2
Bijzonder rapport van Leerink.

-1972 launch 2028. 3 jaar vertraging door toevoegen extra fase 2b vanwege onzekerheid clinical endpoints.

-not included in our valuation are potential indication expansions for filgotinib into psoriatic arthritis and ankylosing spondylitis.

- Shifting GLPG1690 into 20%-24% tiered royalties for GLPG reduces our overall valuation for this asset significantly from about $135 per share to $41 per share, after share dilution.

- Revising regulatory pathway projections for GLPG1690 in osteoarthritis

- We are currently attributing ~$2 per share to GLPG1972

Kan aan mij liggen, maar heb t wel eens degelijker gezien.
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