Outlook AEX this week [18/6 - 22/6]
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HTF we just had quad expiry last friday.
It is not unusual to see a shift in direction afterwards.
Fundamentally we have FED hiking rates and ECB tapering QE (both bearish stocks / indices)
Politically we have troublesome circumstances in the EU-periphery (Italy, Spain, Brexit)
Seasonally we see AEX weakening in (the 2nd part of) June.
Looking to sell the AEX at the (previous weeks/month) highs.
Looking for 543.50 as downside target for this month.
This is the AEX year-open.
Price gapped up on open, into the resistance zone.
Then reversed down to close the opening gap.
Then dropped lower after NY-Open.
Looking for the downmove to continue.
Analysis is reinforced when monthly-open level @ 554.15 is broken down.
Downmove continued today as predicted.
Price gapped down after opening and breached the monthly-open level @ 554.15.
Looking for 550 and then 547.50 as next downside targets.
Watching dollar-index for a reversal down around the 95.35 level.
That could be the trigger for a retrace up in the AEX.
Today's gap closed.
Time to push lower.
Expecting a break of the lows @ 551.75
Price moved lower after NY-open.
Downside target 551.75 hit.
Prediction for Friday:
AEX closed lower 5 days in a row.
Price broke the monthly and hit support, also weekly exp.
Time for profit taking and scale back risk f/t weekend.
Look for retrace (gap) up, then up to 555.25 and maybe 558.00
Update AEX - Fridaymorning:
We opened gap up as expected.
Price broke the monthly upwards.
First target 555.25 almost hit.
Looking for more upside while gap remains open for a later moment.
Upside targets remain the same: 555.25 & 558.00
Update AEX - Noon:
AEX moved higher without closing opening gap.
Second upside target 558.00 (almost) hit.
Update AEX - prior to NY-session:
One more prediction for the week.
Looking for AEX to run the highs (559 / 560) before NY-open session.
Then on NY-open expect the SP500 to move lower, dragging AEX down with it.
Back to the middle of today's range.
AEX Update - recap NY-session:
Upside target (560) hit before open of NY-session.
SP500 did move lower after NY-session open as predicted.
AEX retraced in line with SP500, but not as much as anticipated.
Looking for the downturn to continue on Monday.
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