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Galapagos december 2017

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Noortje103
0
Toch vreemd dat de short posities uitgebreid worden, het enige gelijk wat ze kunnen krijgen als er een negatieve berichtgeving komt rond Fil. en dat dat de reden blijkt te zijn waarom er geen overname bod komt, of er komt een nieuwe samenwerking in plaats van een overname.

Blijkt pas na 1-1-2018 want dan loopt de stand still pas af, dus nu is er niets over te nemen.
[verwijderd]
0
quote:

vinneke7373 schreef op 27 dec 2017 om 18:35:


[...]

Wel allereerst denk ik dat ik zelf het best geplaatst ben om te zien wat ik met mijn tijd doe.

Op één of andere manier denk jij meer recht te hebben hier te posten, en dat jouw mening meer waard is dan die van een ander. Sorry, twee keer fout.

Wat is het eigenlijk met jou? Ongelukkige jeugd gehad?

Je hangt hier graag de objectieve, alwetende uit, maar het viel me op dat je de voorbije week alleen maar lag te zeuren over MGEN dat in waarde was aan het stijgen. Kwam vrij gefrustreerd over. Willens nillens gelijk willen halen.

Prettig eindejaar asti, ik wens voor jou een goed humeur!

Naar aanleiding van jouw post dat men hier beter de tijd kan vullen tot er nieuws is, omdat volgens jou alles al besproken zou zijn, neem ik aan dat je geen tientallen uren gaat besteden aan verdieping. Geen gekke conclusie lijkt mij. Het is wel ironisch dat ik volgens jou graag de alwetende uithang, terwijl jij stelt dat er niks meer valt te bespreken over GLPG. Eigenlijk ben jij dan toch de alwetende?

Wat ik verder denk is dat iedereen recht heeft op zijn of haar mening. Maar het is helemaal niet asociaal als de verschillende meningen verschillend gewaardeerd worden. Los daarvan blijkt dat het verschil tussen meningen en feiten, subjectiviteit en objectiviteit, jou niet helemaal duidelijk is. Je bent daarin trouwens niet de enige.

Over MGEN. Jij vraagt en leest liever wat men denkt dat Onno op vakantie doet natuurlijk, maar zelf ben ik hier vooral om het tussendoor even over beleggen te hebben. Zo nu en dan plaats ik posts over bepaalde (biotech) beleggingen/trades. Daar krijg ik van bepaalde figuren stelselmatig hele zure reacties op. De wijze en duur van mijn tegenreactie bepaal ik zelf. Als jij denkt dat er frustratie, een slecht humeur of een slechte jeugd achter mijn posts zit, dan mag je dat vinden.

Maar dat maakt het stukje tekst dat je aanhaalde nog steeds geen ''objectieve conclusie''.
RamBam.
0
Waarom denkt iedereen hier dat er een overname komt? Misschien gooit Gilead zijn aandelen er wel uit begin volgend jaar. Staan we zo op € 60,00 of lager :-)
Beurskingpin
0
quote:

RamBam. schreef op 27 dec 2017 om 19:37:


Waarom denkt iedereen hier dat er een overname komt? Misschien gooit Gilead zijn aandelen er wel uit begin volgend jaar. Staan we zo op € 60,00 of lager :-)


Waarna een overnamebod volgt van 200 procent aan 180€..
NorthSide aanhang
0
quote:

RamBam. schreef op 27 dec 2017 om 19:37:


Waarom denkt iedereen hier dat er een overname komt? Misschien gooit Gilead zijn aandelen er wel uit begin volgend jaar. Staan we zo op € 60,00 of lager :-)


Als je zo denkt, heb je, mag een gezond mens aannemen, helemaal geen aandelen Gala en vraag ik me af wat je hier doet ?

BBman
1
quote:

NorthSide aanhang schreef op 27 dec 2017 om 19:43:


[...]

Als je zo denkt, heb je, mag een gezond mens aannemen, helemaal geen aandelen Gala en vraag ik me af wat je hier doet ?




Niet slim van Ranbam
Trust&watch
0
quote:

Myfirstmillionbefore30 schreef op 27 dec 2017 om 09:02:


Gemiddelde verwachting volgens forumleden:

1500,00 pl4 <---------- Niet meegeteld wegens zwaargewicht
73,25 Mooiweer
77,43 *Plata o Plomo*
78,85 Mippert
79,40 voda
79,50 Sentiment
79,65 Zo gaat dat
79,87 Timch
79,99 YNWA
80,00 Trust&watch
80,15 Prins Johan
80,25 the Fonz
80,67 koperlijktopgoud
80,71 BW2017
81,18 Cees01
81.50 oorloop
81,78 Vinneke7373
81,81 Twinkletown
82,00 KAKO
82,20 gkp
82,50 Bolknak
82,82 HansIgor
82,33 Myfirstmillionbefore30
82,55 Toedenoedelie
83,00 jan941
83,25 Jumoro
83,50 Solietje
83,83 Mt.Baker
84,00 Harvester
84,11 Wallander
84,48 Rakara
85,35 Mippert
86,34 Kemosabe
87,26 00leeuwO
88,10 Polo XL
89,34 Roccab
91,45 Alfabeat
94,23 Gala-diner
95,35 RenardeauIIe
96,55 TMO7
101,56 Pharmking
----------------------------- -

3272
39
----------------------------- /

83,90 gemiddelde verwachting, voor wat het waard is.
egeltjemetstekel
0
Aan het bovenstaande lijstje wil ik graag toevoegen dat het gemiddelde van alle meningen dikwijls een zeer betrouwbare indicator is (geloof ik).
Weetjewat? Noteer mij dan maar voor dat gemiddelde=>dat betekend dus ook dat als er meer mensen mee gaan doen dat dan het gemiddelde weer her berekend dient te worden!
Madebeliefje
0
The Only Reason Why Gilead Might Not Buy Galapagos Straight Away
Dec.19.17 | About: Gilead Sciences, (GILD)
From Growth to Value
From Growth to Value
Long-term horizon, long only, dividend investing, growth at reasonable price

(4,353 followers)
Summary
In January 2016, Gilead bought 6.760.701 Galapagos shares, 13.27% of all outstanding shares.

The lockup and standstill arrangement under the companies' January 2016 agreement expires at the end of this month.

Is Galapagos interesting to buy for Gilead?

Galapagos' CEO Van De Stolpe always fiercely opposed a takeover, but I feel something has changed in his tone.

I think the real question will not be 'if' but 'when'. The only reason Gilead may be waiting is new results from filgotinib studies and its competitors.

Introduction
Two years ago, in December 2015, Gilead (GILD) announced that it would invest $2B in the Belgian biotech Galapagos (GLPG) to develop filgotinib, for the treatment of rheumatoid arthritis and other inflammatory diseases.



Gilead made a $425 million investment in Galapagos shares, which bought them 6,760,701 shares of Galapagos, 13.27% of the total number of outstanding shares. In addition to that, Gilead paid a $300M license payment and further payments up to $1.35B can come from royalties and profit sharing. Gilead and Galapagos also agreed on a lock-up and standstill arrangement, which will expire on December 31. Basically, this lock-up means that Gilead can't buy or sell any shares until then.

Since then, Galapagos' price has gone up considerably, while that of Gilead went down by more than a quarter.

ChartGLPG data by YCharts

On Thursday, December 14, just two weeks before the lock-up period expires, Galapagos announced that it would co-promote filgotinib with Gilead in eight European countries: Germany, France, Italy, Spain, the United Kingdom, the Netherlands, Belgium and Luxembourg. It will take on 35% of the promotion costs in those countries and the profits and costs are split in even parts.

This deal was inked just before the lock-up period expired. That means that Gilead can then buy more shares or maybe even the whole company. With a current market cap of $4.4B and maybe a 50% premium, this could coin the deal at something between $7B and $7.5B, which is just a small part of Gilead's heap of $29B in cash.

Would Galapagos be a good acquisition for Gilead?
I think that Gilead is convinced of filgotinib. Otherwise, it would not have invested so much. And, as I showed in a previous article, filgotinib could become a blockbuster, raking in maybe up to $3B per year if everything goes according to plan. So, even if it is still unsure and there is a lot of competition heating up in rheumatoid arthritis, filgotinib alone would be enough to justify a Galapagos takeout. There are 11 studies rolling for filgotinib at this moment:



(Source: Galapagos website)

But there is much more to the story. Because of the collaboration, Gilead was able to sniff at Galapagos for two long years, exploring its other products in the pipeline too, probably in great detail. That's how it goes when you work together and human beings are involved: the chitchat at the coffee machine is often a great place for information.

This is the rest of Galapagos's pipeline:



As you can see, GLPG-1609 is also in Phase 2 and the medicine is still completely in Galapagos' hands, without any partner. IPF stands for idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis, a fatal disease of the lungs. There is no cure yet. The only thing drugs can do is slow down the disease and relieve the symptoms.

The drugs that are used now are nintedanib and pirfenidone. Nintedanib is sold under the brand names Ofev and Vargatev by Boehringer Ingelheim. Side effects are abdominal pain, vomiting, and diarrhea. Pirfenidone is marketed in Europe and the USA under the name Esbriet. It has a whole list of side effects too: gastrointestinal reactions, skin and liver problems, etc.

The results of GLPG-1609 so far are really encouraging: it looks as if the disease is halted and there are no more side effects reported than in the placebo group.

The interesting aspect for Gilead is that the IPF market is projected to be $3.2B by 2025. So if everything goes well, GLPG-1609 could become a blockbuster too.

So I think that you can say without hesitation: yes, Galapagos would be a very interesting addition to Gilead's pipeline, which has been criticized for being not exiting enough.

But will the deal go through?
Until now, the CEO and founder of Galapagos, Onno Van De Stolpe, has always been very articulate: he didn't want to sell his company. Two years ago, in the announcement of the deal with Gilead, Van De Stolpe said this:

Clearly, Gilead is in the driver's seat. They are responsible for the clinical, regulatory, manufacturing, and the marketing of the molecule and the product. But we have been able to secure substantial rights for Galapagos in the co-marketing of this molecule in the main markets in Europe as well as in the Benelux. This means that Galapagos is able to use filgotinib to build up a sales force, to build up an infrastructure, actually book the sales in the Benelux, and actually become a fully integrated Company.

And Galapagos CFO Bart Filius said on that same announcement:

What is on this slide is that this is a partnership where Galapagos has the opportunity to really co-develop and co-commercialize filgotinib, which is really, as Onno was pointing out before, our opportunity to make a step into creating a commercially-based biotech company in Europe.

With the announcement of yesterday, this strategy seems still to be the focus point of Galapagos: building out a commercially-based biotech from the ground up in Europe. So far, so good for Galapagos.

But does this mean the deal will not go through? I don't think so. There have been more CEOs and founders who didn't want to sell their company, until they were promised a great position in the management of the acquiring company. And besides that: money often wins.

On Friday, December 15, there is a very interesting interview in the Belgian financial newspaper De Tijd ('The Time') with Galapagos CEO Onno Van De Stolpe. Since I happen to understand Dutch, I can read between the lines that Van De Stolpe has changed his mind or at least his attitude somewhat.

Madebeliefje
0
First and for all, he states that there has been no contact yet about a takeover. And he stills calls it 'a worry' that it would happen. Even more than before now, he states. The reason is that Galapagos has negotiated so well that the situation is maybe somewhat uncomfortable for Gilead now. There are still hundreds of millions in milestone payments to be paid and Galapagos has 20% to 30% of the profits of filgotinib. If it really would be blockbuster, that is a lot of cash. They can count in California too...

And then there is a very interesting part of the interview when the reporter reminds Van De Stolpe that he had said a few years ago that he would do everything that he could to prevent a buyout. The question the journalist puts is what Van De Stolpe has done to make his company less attractive as a takeover target for Gilead. Van De Stolpe admits that Galapagos has only become more attractive for Gilead, because now they know that formerly unknown Belgian biotech company from the inside.

He also affirms that Galapagos and Gilead have talked about the research projects and the pipeline of Galapagos and that Gilead is very interested in GLPG-1609 too, 'besides other things that could be interesting for Gilead'. I don't know, but to me that almost sounds as an acceptation of a takeover. His concluding sentence is telling, I think. I try to translate it as close to the original as I can: 'In the end, investors will do what is best for their return and a bonus.'

In 2015, he already said that there were eight candidates for collaboration on filgotinib, but that they chose Gilead because: “The culture fits extremely well with Galapagos.” Prophetic words?

When will the acquisition take place?
The question of when the acquisition will take place is harder to answer in my opinion than the 'if'. Maybe Gilead has already prepared a bid secretly. They already know Galapagos and its pipeline, so it is a possibility that they buy the company immediately after the expiration of the standstill, to prevent others from eating their lunch. But I don't think so.

If there is one characteristic of Gilead that I like, then it is their stubbornness versus the market. I know that a lot of investors and haters think this is the worst characteristic of Gilead, but they look at their company, not at the stock market for what they think they need. They are not a shoot-on-first-sight company, but wait carefully until they see a prey that really interests them.

Being so careful could mean that Gilead waits for the results of filgotinib and the results of its competitors to derisk its investment. And in the meantime, they have the time to integrate Kite Pharma, which they have acquired this year.

The most important results of the filgotinib start rolling in from 2019 onward (for Chron's disease) and probably at the beginning of 2021 for rheumatoid arthritis. Maybe that can give you a time frame. Probably Gilead will have to pay more if all results are excellent, but that price will give more certainty then.

Conclusion
I think that is highly probable that Gilead acquires Galapagos after the stand-still expires. But the real question is rather when that will happen than if it will happen. It could happen right away in January 2018, if it has enough confidence in filgotinib and also GLPG-1609 from their inside information, but I think that Gilead will wait to derisk its investment until the end results of the tests of filgotinib roll in, and then buy Galapagos somewhere between 2019 and 2021.

If you liked this article and you want to read more articles from a long-term perspective, feel free to hit the "Follow" button next to my name.

In the meantime: keep growing!

Disclosure: I am/we are long GILD.

I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

Additional disclosure: I might initiate a long position in GLPG in a few weeks.

About this article:Expand
Pharmking
0
Mooi stuk...Ik denk toch echt Q1 2018....Onno zal het zeker niet voor weinig verkopen en GILEAD uit de tent lokken een goed bod te doen..
Kan hij prima veramtwoorden naar de aandeelhouders....Iedereen stemt daar echt wel mee in.
Of NU € 150 of over een paar jaar € 200...
Beurskingpin
0
quote:

Madebeliefje schreef op 27 dec 2017 om 21:13:


The Only Reason Why Gilead Might Not Buy Galapagos Straight Away
Dec.19.17 | About: Gilead Sciences, (GILD)
From Growth to Value
From Growth to Value
Long-term horizon, long only, dividend investing, growth at reasonable price

(4,353 followers)
Summary
In January 2016, Gilead bought 6.760.701 Galapagos shares, 13.27% of all outstanding shares.

The lockup and standstill arrangement under the companies' January 2016 agreement expires at the end of this month.

Is Galapagos interesting to buy for Gilead?

Galapagos' CEO Van De Stolpe always fiercely opposed a takeover, but I feel something has changed in his tone.

I think the real question will not be 'if' but 'when'. The only reason Gilead may be waiting is new results from filgotinib studies and its competitors.

Introduction
Two years ago, in December 2015, Gilead (GILD) announced that it would invest $2B in the Belgian biotech Galapagos (GLPG) to develop filgotinib, for the treatment of rheumatoid arthritis and other inflammatory diseases.



Gilead made a $425 million investment in Galapagos shares, which bought them 6,760,701 shares of Galapagos, 13.27% of the total number of outstanding shares. In addition to that, Gilead paid a $300M license payment and further payments up to $1.35B can come from royalties and profit sharing. Gilead and Galapagos also agreed on a lock-up and standstill arrangement, which will expire on December 31. Basically, this lock-up means that Gilead can't buy or sell any shares until then.

Since then, Galapagos' price has gone up considerably, while that of Gilead went down by more than a quarter.

ChartGLPG data by YCharts

On Thursday, December 14, just two weeks before the lock-up period expires, Galapagos announced that it would co-promote filgotinib with Gilead in eight European countries: Germany, France, Italy, Spain, the United Kingdom, the Netherlands, Belgium and Luxembourg. It will take on 35% of the promotion costs in those countries and the profits and costs are split in even parts.

This deal was inked just before the lock-up period expired. That means that Gilead can then buy more shares or maybe even the whole company. With a current market cap of $4.4B and maybe a 50% premium, this could coin the deal at something between $7B and $7.5B, which is just a small part of Gilead's heap of $29B in cash.

Would Galapagos be a good acquisition for Gilead?
I think that Gilead is convinced of filgotinib. Otherwise, it would not have invested so much. And, as I showed in a previous article, filgotinib could become a blockbuster, raking in maybe up to $3B per year if everything goes according to plan. So, even if it is still unsure and there is a lot of competition heating up in rheumatoid arthritis, filgotinib alone would be enough to justify a Galapagos takeout. There are 11 studies rolling for filgotinib at this moment:



(Source: Galapagos website)

But there is much more to the story. Because of the collaboration, Gilead was able to sniff at Galapagos for two long years, exploring its other products in the pipeline too, probably in great detail. That's how it goes when you work together and human beings are involved: the chitchat at the coffee machine is often a great place for information.

This is the rest of Galapagos's pipeline:



As you can see, GLPG-1609 is also in Phase 2 and the medicine is still completely in Galapagos' hands, without any partner. IPF stands for idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis, a fatal disease of the lungs. There is no cure yet. The only thing drugs can do is slow down the disease and relieve the symptoms.

The drugs that are used now are nintedanib and pirfenidone. Nintedanib is sold under the brand names Ofev and Vargatev by Boehringer Ingelheim. Side effects are abdominal pain, vomiting, and diarrhea. Pirfenidone is marketed in Europe and the USA under the name Esbriet. It has a whole list of side effects too: gastrointestinal reactions, skin and liver problems, etc.

The results of GLPG-1609 so far are really encouraging: it looks as if the disease is halted and there are no more side effects reported than in the placebo group.

The interesting aspect for Gilead is that the IPF market is projected to be $3.2B by 2025. So if everything goes well, GLPG-1609 could become a blockbuster too.

So I think that you can say without hesitation: yes, Galapagos would be a very interesting addition to Gilead's pipeline, which has been criticized for being not exiting enough.

But will the deal go through?
Until now, the CEO and founder of Galapagos, Onno Van De Stolpe, has always been very articulate: he didn't want to sell his company. Two years ago, in the announcement of the deal with Gilead, Van De Stolpe said this:

Clearly, Gilead is in the driver's seat. They are responsible for the clinical, regulatory, manufacturing, and the marketing of the molecule and the product. But we have been able to secure substantial rights for Galapagos in the co-marketing of this molecule in the main markets in Europe as well as in the Benelux. This means that Galapagos is able to use filgotinib to build up a sales force, to build up an infrastructure, actually book the sales in the Benelux, and actually become a fully integrated Company.

And Galapagos CFO Bart Filius said on that same announcement:

What is on this slide is that this is a partnership where Galapagos has the opportunity to really co-develop and co-commercialize filgotinib, which is really, as Onno was pointing out before, our opportunity to make a step into creating a commercially-based biotech company in Europe.

With the announcement of yesterday, this strategy seems still to be the focus point of Galapagos: building out a commercially-based biotech from the ground up in Europe. So far, so good for Galapagos.

But does this mean the deal will not go through? I don't think so. There have been more CEOs and founders who didn't want to sell their company, until they were promised a great position in the management of the acquiring company. And besides that: money often wins.

On Friday, December 15, there is a very interesting interview in the Belgian financial newspaper De Tijd ('The Time') with Galapagos CEO Onno Van De Stolpe. Since I happen to understand Dutch, I can read between the lines that Van De Stolpe has changed his mind or at least his attitude somewhat.




Die hadden we nog niet gelezen seg goh.
Ruud Rubbers
0
quote:

Pharmking schreef op 27 dec 2017 om 21:57:


Countdown, nog 3 minuten.....
Veur wa?
Ruud Rubbers
0
Pharmking
0
de tuinman
0
Ik ben behoorlijk teleurgesteld met het uitblijven van de update CF-studie.
Gezien het feit dat deze al vertraging had opgelopen.

Ik hoop dat Galapagos deze teleurstelling weg kan nemen.
Sentiment
0
mooiweer
0
Die update zal wel in 2018 komen denk niet dat daar dit jaar nog een Pb overkomt.

Gezien de koers stijging in Amerika mag je helaas ook geen overname verwachten want die hadden zich anders wel op het aandeel gestort.

Argenx doet het een stuk beter kwa koers.
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