Ritageld schreef op 27 september 2017 17:17:
PostNL NV – Value Analysis (EURONEXT AMSTERDAM:PNL) : September 27, 2017
September 27, 2017 by CapitalCube
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Capitalcube gives PostNL NV a score of 47.
Our analysis is based on comparing PostNL NV with the following peers – Deutsche Post AG, Clasquin SA, Osterreichische Post AG and CTT – Correios de Portugal, SA (DPW-DE, ALCLA-FR, POST-AT and CTT-PT).
PostNL NV has a fundamental score of 47 and has a relative valuation of UNDERVALUED.
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Compared to peers, relative underperformance over the last year is in contrast with the more recent outperformance.
PostNL NV currently has a negative book value but its current Price/Assets ratio of 0.85 is about median among its peers.
PNL-NL‘s book value of equity is not positive and suggests that that it is not meaningful to analyze its ROE versus P/E in order to determine whether the company has an operating or growth advantage.
PNL-NL‘s relative asset efficiency and net profit margins are both around the median level.
Change in the company’s annual revenues seems to be coming at the expense of earnings.
Over the last five years, PNL-NL‘s return on assets has declined from above median to about median among its peers, indicating declining relative operating performance.
The company’s relatively high gross margin suggests some differentiation with pricing advantages versus peers.
PNL-NL‘s revenues have grown more slowly than the peer median over the last few years, which combined with the stock price’s relatively low P/E ratio suggests substandard growth expectations relative to peers.
The company’s level of capital investment is relatively low and suggests it is milking the business.
PNL-NL does not seem to have the flexibility to raise more debt.
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Leverage & Liquidity
PNL-NL does not seem able to raise more debt easily.
PNL-NL‘s debt at 29.60% of its enterprise value compared to an overall benchmark of 25% (Note: The peer median is currently 20.26%), and interest coverage level of 3.23x, would make major new borrowings difficult.
All 4 peers for the company have an outstanding debt balance.
PNL-NL has moved to a relatively high liquidity from an Some Capacity profile at the recent year-end.
PNL-NL‘s interest coverage is downward trending and is below (but within one standard deviation of) its five-year average interest coverage of 4.03x.
The decrease in its interest coverage to 3.23x from 3.93x (in 2016) was also accompanied by a decrease in its peer median during this period to 9.55x from 20.59x.
Interest coverage rose 10.34 points relative to peers.
PNL-NL‘s debt-EV is its lowest relative to the last five years and compares to a high of 63.74% in 2012.
While its debt-EV decreased to 29.60% from 32.08% (in 2016), its peer median increased during this period to 20.26% from 14.82%.
Relative to peers, debt-EV fell 7.93 percentage points. Unlike the peer median, it is also above the 25% leverage benchmark.
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Key Liquidity Items
Company Debt/Enterprise Value (%) Current Ratio Interest Coverage (x) Cash Flow To Total Debt (%)
Deutsche Post AG 13.03 0.94 6.99 60.52
Clasquin SA 42.23 1.24 15.26 13.08
Osterreichische Post AG 0.25 1.16 48.51 4807.14
CTT – Correios de Portugal, SA 20.26 0.93 9.55 4254.8
PostNL NV 29.6 0.9 3.23 19.33
Peer Median 20.26 0.94 9.55 60.52
Best In Class 0.25 1.24 48.51 4807.14
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PostNL NV provides mail, parcels and support services, both physical and digital. It operates through the following segments: Mail in the Netherlands, Parcels and International. The Mail in the Netherlands segment offers mail and mail-related services in the Netherlands, including the provision of the universal postal service for mail and retail outlets. The Parcels segment provides parcel services in the Netherlands and Belgium for both domestic and cross-border international parcel distribution and related value-added services. The International segment operates in the postal markets of the United Kingdom, Germany and Italy with a focus on domestic addressed mail services. The company was founded on May 31, 2011 and is headquartered in The Hague, the Netherlands.
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