Aandeel Biocartis BRU:BCART.BL, BE0974281132

quote:

MisterPink schreef op 14 januari 2020 09:34:

[...]

Haha! Dat lijkt wat minder omslachtig... Ik zou zeggen stuur ze zelf een mail met vragen.

Voor mij is het sociale aspect ook belangrijk. En 'de kleur' van de stemmen die ik hoor. Zo heeft ieder zijn eigen methodes.;)

MP

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Flatlander schreef op 13 januari 2020 15:22:

BL

I posted those numbers based on the listed prices on the Fisher exchange before the agreement was terminated. $5000 U.S. was for the single model console and $45000 U.S was the 8 unit model. The assay cartridge costs ranged from $800 to $1500 for a pack of 6 assays. The average was about $!200 U.S. These numbers clouded my earlier estimates of when BCART could become profitable. I believe I floated 350,000 units would get them to profitability. However, like most things health care related it is now apparent that the unit rate costs in the U.S. are higher than the rest of world. Depending on the geographic mix of sales, whether higher priced units are moving, and the support revenues, profitability can probably be achieved at around 450,000 units.

The May 9 2018 post on this board provides a summary of an interview with Verrelst in it he indicates the ave cost per cartridge was $117 EU in 2017. Multiply by 6 and convert for currency exchange rates and the cost approach the $800 lower bound of US pricing. The costs would reflect the initial production line costs. The costs should be reduced significantly with the new production line, thus improving profit margins. In the interview Verrelst discusses profitability occurring at annual turnover of 500,000 cartridges. This was before the 2nd production line, so the operating costs should be reduced so profitability can be achieved at a slightly lower turnover. Hence my revised estimate of 450,000.

The other interesting thing from that interview was that the cost of the 2nd line was quoted to be $20 million EUR, Verrelst indicated the cost for a third line would be much less since the engineering design costs have already been incurred so the designs can just be copied to the new location. That makes me hopeful that the China startup costs will not be that great.

FL

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brightlight schreef op 14 januari 2020 12:10:

[...]
FL,
Thanks for the info. Did you notice that the 8 unit model actually costs more on a per unit basis than the 1 unit model. 5x8=40, not 45. I find this very strange, and I actually would have expected the larger unit models to be cheaper on a per unit basis, because whether you have 1 or 8 cartridge-drives, you still need only one console. What is your take on that? This brings me to my second point which is that the guidance given by Bcart concerning console sales has its limitations, because this guidance does not say anything about the models expected to be sold. This actually makes our "cartridges sold per console" number pretty useless, because when that number starts to go down for example, it doesn't necessarily mean a lower rate of cartridge replenishment, it can also mean that Bcart has started focussing on smaller laboratories who consume less and therefor bring the overall number down. We therefor must be very careful to not draw the wrong conclusions from the "cartridges sold per console" number. It would be very welcome if Bcart started giving numbers on replenishing rates, sales volumes per type of console, sales volumes of the different types of cartridges and their respective prices, etc. etc.
Concerning the Verelst interview you mentioned, I suppose you didn't notice the avg cartridge price per year can be derived from the annual reports (in 2018 it was 112, in 2017 it was indeed 117 Euros). By the way, could you elaborate a bit more on those production lines. I read the second production line can produce up to 1 million cartridges per year. So why is the first production line still maintained when Bcart now still only produces 175000 cartridges per year, so way under the capacity of the new line. Are both lines in Mechelen?
BL

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Rarezot schreef op 14 januari 2020 14:05:

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Hey,

Ik heb bij Biocartis gewerkt als consultant om de tweede lijn opgestart te krijgen. Die lijn is inderdaad in Mechelen op hetzelfde industriepark. Het 'probleem' met de nieuwe productielijn is dat iedere type cartridge/assay apart moet gevalideerd worden (toen ik er was ging het over KRAS). Dus dat op zich neemt tijd in beslag.
Ik weet niet welke er nu al allemaal gevalideerd zijn, wat ik wel heb gehoord van mijn ex-collega's is dat de lijn nog niet extreem werd gebruikt vanwege de tegenvallende verkoop. De assays hebben een vervaldatum, dus het is nutteloos om afval te produceren...

groeten,
Rarezot

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Laup 4 schreef op 14 januari 2020 17:40:

De fine fleur van ’s werelds farma- en biotechindustrie strijkt deze week neer in San Francisco. De 38ste JPMorgan Health Conference ontvangt van maandag tot en met donderdag meer dan 450 bedrijven, maar ook bankiers, analisten en investeerders uit 155 landen in het prestigieuze Westin St. Francis-hotel.

Het vierkoppige Biocartis-team haspelt meer dan 60 meetings af.

De 12.000 aanwezigen raken er alleen binnen op uitnodiging van de Amerikaanse zakenbank JPMorgan. Ook dit jaar tekent het kruim van de Belgische biotech present. Onder andere Mithra, Argenx, Biocartis, Bone Therapeutics, Galapagos en UCB hebben een delegatie ter plekke.

‘Het gaat om gesprekken met bestaande en mogelijke nieuwe investeerders of businesspartners’, zegt Renate Degrave, hoofd communicatie en investor relations. ‘De voorbereiding is erg belangrijk. Het grote voordeel is dat daar alleen C-suits (bedrijfskleppers, red.) rondlopen.’

Elk jaar selecteert JPMorgan een rist gelukkige bedrijven die er een presentatie mogen geven.Biocartis-topman Herman Verrelst presenteert donderdag voor het tweede jaar op rij.

De conferentie geldt niet voor niets als de ‘deal conference’, aldus Renate Degrave van Biocartis. ‘Er vinden frequent eerste ontmoetingen met mogelijke partners plaats, die later in een partnership beklonken worden.’

Bron: De Tijd

www.tijd.be/ondernemen/farma-biotech/...

quote:

Flatlander schreef op 14 januari 2020 21:55:

BL
I see the dilemma. The cost of an assay cartridge can vary by almost 100% depending on the assay content and the cost of an Idylla platform can vary by almost an order of magnitude depending on how many units are configured for multiplexing. It does make modeling very challenging. I think that focusing on cartridges makes more sense since the business model follows the razor and razor blade model and there is less variability on the sale price. Printers follow this business model and at times they used to almost give the printer away at cost knowing that the profit was in the ink sales. As far as I'm aware, BCART has always spoke in terms of cartridge sales numbers rather than consoles operating when describing the profitability threshold.

Regards
FL

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Flatlander schreef op 14 januari 2020 17:33:

From what I have read, the shelf life on the cartridges is a year. I assume that the manufacturing lines have to do periodic change over when they switch the assay being produced. Is this the case or are portions of the line dedicated to each individual assay?

In July and August 2019, Fischer was running discounts on some assays (NRAS, KRAS). I assume they have a sell by date and discounting kicks in when the shelf life in a given geography starts wind down. As more assays are added it will be interesting to see how production is managed. Some of the combined assays (KRAS + NRAS),gene fusion, etc. will replace existing individual assays.

Rarezot- Any thoughts on these assumptions? Are periodic changeovers necessary or can all assays be produced during any given time frame. When a new product such as OncoTypeDx is being manufactured does it create logistical issues in switch overs or is space already reserved on the line for this assay?

FL

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MisterPink schreef op 15 januari 2020 08:11:

[...]

Dit is toch allemaal al bekend en zo logisch als ik weet niet wat!

Natuurlijk zijn de cartridges/testen het belangrijkste product en de graadmeter voor commercieel succes van BCART. De productie van de consoles wordt uitbesteed; daar kan dan sowieso niet veel winst op zitten en de verkoop is eenmalig (uitgezonderd modulaire uitbreiding). Je hebt uiteraard wel diverse plaatsingen nodig, geografisch en thematisch, om de cartridges over de toonbank te jagen.

Het aantal verkochte cartridges per console moet straks omhoog, wat gaat gebeuren met op handen zijnde goedkeuringen. Overigens heb ik gezien dat Curetis, bijna aan de grond, recent een Amerikaanse goedkeuring binnenkreeg voor een test en nu omhoog spuit...

MP

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Rarezot schreef op 15 januari 2020 09:19:

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Hey FL,

I did sign an NDA, so I have to be careful with what how much detail I can give and I'm not going to give any numbers or timings or anything like that (I don't know the current numbers anyways).
What I can say is that different assays use different solutions and some slightly different parts. So for switching assays you need to clean the manufacturing line so it won't be cross-contaminated. Also the liquids have a shelf life (which I remeber to be shorter than the shelf life of the assay. Shelf life is prolonged due to the processes during manufacturing).

I don't know how exactly they do it now, but I assume they first finish the liquids and do the cleaning when they switch shifts before switching assays. But yes, there are time slots reserved for certain assays, tests, maintenance,... No spontaneous switching and of course every thing is tracked. So it's not really periodic, I know the assay can switch in-between shifts, but you can't just produce whatever you want either.

Greeting,
Rarezot