Aandeel Biocartis BRU:BCART.BL, BE0974281132

quote:

brightlight schreef op 5 mei 2020 12:46:

FL, MB,
I hate to say 'I said so', but it does give me some personal satisfaction that analysts seem to be converging towards my view of the current value of the company. The new Kepler Cheuvreux target is now 8 euro. This being said, I much rather see a realistic price target from my 'fellow analysts' (pun intended :)). A realistic price target gives (me at least) much more confidence in a stock than a fairy tale target.
BL.

quote:

joe123 schreef op 5 mei 2020 13:08:

[...]
Wat niet wil zeggen dat het koersdoel van KBC van 13,5 euro snel realistisch mag worden.

quote:

brightlight schreef op 5 mei 2020 11:32:

FL
If ever you might consider drawing up a chart of future peak sales per test, this chart which I just made may come in useful. It gives an overview of the historical ramp-up of tests (for Europe only!). It provides us with an interesting new parameter: avg # of cartridges sold per test. I do realize this parameter has its flaws because (amongst others) it does not take into consideration the IVD versus RUO mix, nor the geographical mix, but still I find it an interesting parameter.
BL

quote:

Flatlander schreef op 5 mei 2020 15:52:

[...]

BL

Not sure I'm ready to take your bait yet. One thing I've learned from years of investing is that projections are of little value unless you can associate them with a time frame.

With the MSI approval, BCART has just filled out the test offerings in CRC and now has diagnostic approval in the EU. However, BCART is not providing the geographic and specific assay sales numbers in a way that would allow the sales trajectory to be analyzed. Extrapolating from this information would be my preferred way of tackling your request.

As I get time I'll try to do some research on the overall market for various assay offerings and then try to assign market capture assumptions. There are huge assumptions in this approach. Some of the Journal of Clinical Pathology articles include flow charts of how they see Idylla being used synergistically with NGS to either provide faster results or to recover failed NGS tests. Obviously these Journal recommendations have not yet been adopted by medical guidance in any consistent way. Nevertheless, they provide a framework for how Idylla might be employed for MDx lab use. I think it is a safe assumption that NGS and PCR will be mainstays of oncology MDx for the foreseeable future. The use of Idylla to salvage the 30-40% of samples failing the NGS could be thought of as one (low to medium use) case scenario since it infers primarily lab usage and not point of care. Wide use within the POC market would be a high use scenario.

I think some assumptions can be made of the rate that Idylla can displace other PCR methods. Also, geographically it should be possible to to estimate the time until peak baby boom generation MDx demand. I'll bet that occurs in the next 10 years in most of the developed world. The incidence rates of various cancers could be applied. I'll run some numbers as I have time and will share it at some point.

With regards to your spreadsheet are your ave cartridge sales just dividing by the number of commercially available assays during each of the time periods? Is that of much value without knowing the breakdown of RUO vs IVD approved content?

Thanks
FL

quote:

brightlight schreef op 5 mei 2020 12:46:

FL, MB,
I hate to say 'I said so', but it does give me some personal satisfaction that analysts seem to be converging towards my view of the current value of the company. The new Kepler Cheuvreux target is now 8 euro. This being said, I much rather see a realistic price target from my 'fellow analysts' (pun intended :)). A realistic price target gives (me at least) much more confidence in a stock than a fairy tale target.
BL.

FL:
Not sure I'm ready to take your bait yet. One thing I've learned from years of investing is that projections are of little value unless you can associate them with a time frame.

Mee eens!

quote:

FilipVanderAa schreef op 7 mei 2020 17:12:

I see the ceo finally started buying some of his own stock. It's not much but it's something

quote:

brightlight schreef op 5 mei 2020 20:04:

[...]
I don't know if you noticed (you probably did) but in the last corporate presentation a few tests suddenly seemed to appear out of the blue (as apposed to the January corp pres).
Thanks for the effort already,
BL

quote:

Flatlander schreef op 8 mei 2020 04:24:

I've been out of the office for a couple days, so I'm catching up on the board and with the flood of earnings announcements. Shown below is the Cepheid part of the Danaher report. Pretty stellar growth in that POC unit.

FL

In Diagnostics, there were very strong results from Danaher's point-of-care businesses at Cepheid and Radiometer, Joyce said. Cepheid's core revenue growth increased more than 40 percent, with broad based strength across all major product lines and geographies.
Strength in Cepheid's flu assay was driven by "the combination of a more severe flu season and increased testing" during the SARS-CoV-2 outbreak, Joyce said. The company also saw early strong demand for Cepheid's SARS-CoV-2 test, which received Emergency Use Authorization from the US Food and Drug Administration at the end of March. The test returns results in 45 minutes and can run on the global installed base of 23,000 instruments, including 5,000 in the US. Joyce said the firm has shipped 2 million test cartridges so far and expects to ship 6 million per quarter.
"We are continuing to expand our capacity, but every test that we produce every single day gets shipped, and demand is continuing to build," Joyce said of Cepheid.
The increased demand for molecular point-of-care tests drove increased instrument placements globally, Joyce said. But hospital and reference labs had lower activity due to declines in wellness checks, elective procedures, ER visits, which negatively impacted test volumes.

quote:

MisterBlues schreef op 7 mei 2020 09:56:

[...]

Het valt me op BL dat die door jou vermaledijde analisten dan wel weer aangehaald worden om je gelijk aan te tonen. Waarmee ik niet wil zeggen dat er helemaal geen waarheid schuilt in je berekeningen, en verder ben ik met je eens dat gematigde verwachtingen gewoon verstandig zijn.

Ik blijf bij mijn waarheden:
Ik vind Biocartis helemaal niet MEER interessant totdat er ECHT aansprekende goedkeuringen en MEER cruciale samenwerkingen binnenkomen, en wetenschappelijke signalen dat long- en darmkankermutatietesten goed ontvangen worden. Ik heb de aandelen op de plank! Kijk met een schuin oogje.

Al twee lang wordt hier tot lering ende vermaek gediscussieerd over: omzet en in hoeverre dat realistisch is om te doen gezien de ontbrekende kennis; hoe de partnerschappen en samenwerkingen in elkaar steken en wat Biocartis precies daarmee opschiet en; vergelijkbare bedrijven en of die vergelijking wel opgaat; de voor- en nadelen die de concurrentie heeft (Illumina / Fisher) etc.etc.

MB

Kortom: kansen en bedreigingen.

Wat mij betreft: gewoon lichtvoetige exercities, niet geheel zinloos maar ook niet steekhoudend.

Denken jullie er wel eens aan dat al die uren lezen en schrijven ook een investering is met een economische waarde? FL kan bijna een boek publiceren: Biocartis, mijn verhaal… Ontwikkelingskosten 2000 uur is 20.000 euro voor een academicus. :)

Er zijn momenteel veel interessantere aandelen! Het lijkt hier wel Waiting for Godot!

Geduld is een schone zaak en ik heb nog vertrouwen voor (nog) een jaar.

Hartelijke groetjes,
MB