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Galapagos in oktober 2016
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Medion50 schreef op 17 oktober 2016 16:47 :
[...]
Daar heb je het nu eens goed mis mee !
Jij lult maar wat rond je heen.
Vorige maand ten opzichte stand nu al even vergeleken ,nietsneus ...
26 september hoogste koers €. 64,730 17 oktober slot €. 57,870 = wel -10,6% De hoogste daler de laatste 3 weken?
omaneus schreef op 17 oktober 2016 17:48 :
[...]ik zei eerder al pak je winst. Maar ja iedereen denkt natuurlijk dat de bomen tot aan de hemel blijven groeien.
Was iedereen maar zo slim als jij.............
Tagomago schreef op 17 oktober 2016 17:35 :
Kruit
nl.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kruid_en_kruit
omaneus schreef op 17 oktober 2016 17:48 :
[...]ik zei eerder al pak je winst. Maar ja iedereen denkt natuurlijk dat de bomen tot aan de hemel blijven groeien.
En met kruid in je buks schiet je meteen de hoofdvogel...
Als we met kleefzaad gaan schieten doe ik eerst even een regenjas aan.
beter dans paren schreef op 17 oktober 2016 17:49 :
[...]
26 september hoogste koers €. 64,730
17 oktober slot €. 57,870 = wel -10,6%
De hoogste daler de laatste 3 weken?
Laatste maand is bij mij nog steeds 4 weken. Ik ben tevreden , tot vrijdag expiratie wat rommelen zonder PB ;-) Eind van het jaar graag € 72,5 of wat minder.
deeersteronde schreef op 17 oktober 2016 15:25 :
Zijn er ook mensen die AB'tjes geven zonder dat ze een posting eigenlijk interessant vinden?
Laten we dit even testen met deze posting...
Benieuwd.
moeilijke keuze wat zal ik doen: eindveiling of deze Ik weet het! Doe gewoon beide ben de beroerdste niet.
deeersteronde schreef op 17 oktober 2016 15:25 :
Zijn er ook mensen die AB'tjes geven zonder dat ze een posting eigenlijk interessant vinden?
Laten we dit even testen met deze posting...
Benieuwd.
Tussenstand. Momenteel 2 Ab'tjes. Dat moet beter kunnen. Niet ?
Gilead: Expect Focus On Products, Not Acquisitions Oct.17.16 | About: Gilead Sciences, (GILD) Abba's AcesFollow(3,355 followers) Long only, value, growth, dividend investing Send Message Summary It is no secret that Gilead has been underperforming all year long against the broader market and its peers as the stock is down 28.1% so far. It is not in the companies DNA to make a huge purchase. The company is going to continue to focus acquiring pipeline products to try and hit the next home run. Gilead (NASDAQ:GILD) continues its slide down into earnings as news of increased competition begins to creep up in all the sandboxes that it occupies. Long-term shareholders can't seem to catch a break in the name since about a year ago. With many perceived shots on goal with products in the Hep C, Hep B, AIDS, oncology, and NASH therapeutic areas one would think that Gilead has a pipeline filled with biotech gold to keep its stock price afloat, but that hasn't been the case. Partners such as GlobeImmune are working hard in the Hep B space as it may be the next big thing after Hep C to be solved from a patient treatment perspective. Gilead will present an abstract on its work in the Hep B space at The Liver Meeting in about a month. Currently the company is running a phase 2 trial which will update earlier results from the same phase 2 trial where the results fell short of expectations for the 24 week checkpoint. Because the study is in phase 2 right now and showed disappointing results at the first check point it should carry no value in any sort of discounted FCF analysis. However, if these results show the required safety and efficacy required the product will likely proceed to a phase 3 trial and that is when we can begin to model the future cash flows of this product in any sort of FCF model. Galapagos (NASDAQ:GLPG), which Gilead inked a major partnership with earlier this year, announced that they will begin a phase 3 study to assess filgotinib for Crohn's disease and phase 2b/3 study for ulcerative colitis. Gilead will lead the two campaigns to obtain regulatory approval and if successful investors may be able to see some increased cash flow for Gilead's ability to get the product approved. But it isn't until a pipeline product advances to the next stage or competition fears ebb that analysts will stop riding the stock down as Leerink just did by downgrading the stock. The firm's analyst downgraded Gilead from a "buy" to "market perform" with a price target reduction of $18 to $94. Currently Gilead is just riding the waves of their Hep C and AIDS franchises and the analyst is pounding the bear drum on those revenue streams. The analyst argues that Gilead should have had better vision into the patient starts than anyone else on the street but yet the company blew it and that management may be startled by even slower patient starts going forward. The Hep C franchise is also under attack from regulatory perspective now as the FDA recently stated that they want labels for Hep C products indicating the risk of reactivating Hep B in patients that are taking the Hep C products. Both Gilead's lead products Harvoni and Sovaldi are going to fall victim to the edict handed down by the FDA, but so will Merck's (NYSE:MRK) Zepatier and AbbVie's (NYSE:ABBV) Viekira Pak so the playing field will be leveled from that perspective. This request by the FDA may have an impact to the Hep C franchise but I believe it will be rendered immaterial at the end of the day since the labeling affects the products offered by the competitors as well. It is no secret that Gilead has been underperforming all year long against the broader market and its peers as the stock is down 28.1% so far. It has all come at the hands of increased competition which has brought about a decrease in revenues for the Hep C franchise. But all this has been chronicled over and over again. Because they are curing their customers of disease they are "losing out" on customers and because the increased competition has flooded the hospitals with supply this is just a basic economics problem. Dwindling demand for the product with increased supply of the product just drives prices down and because Gilead was the king of the jungle it only makes sense that they are going to lose something out of the equation. Though everyone is screaming at the top of their lungs for Gilead to acquire another company, over the course of its 28 year history, the company has made only sixteen acquisitions. The average purchase price of these acquisitions is at $1.2B and it is only that high because it paid $10.4B for Pharmasset. If you remove that anomaly from the equation then the average turns to $558M. Culturally, the leadership team does not make any acquisitions of great magnitude so to expect this current leadership team to come in and make a huge acquisition may just be a dream. They've been able to integrate Pharmasset very well, but there is no telling what can happen to the next company they acquire if it is a huge deal. The Hep C products are losing momentum and I would expect the company misses its third quarter results but I continue to be a value investor however and purchase shares of Gilead. I actually initiated my position in Gilead in early September of 2015 and have been pretty upset with the purchase thus far. So far I'm down 12.9% on an annualized basis but will continue to purchase shares as long as they are below $86 because I believe that is where it offers exceptional value. I've selected $86 because it is the average price at which I currently own my shares. But I do believe that it offers value until around $91 which happens to be the midway point of the 52-week range. A great way to enter the stock would be to write the November $67.50 strike put for $0.93 and using those proceeds to purchase the November $80 strike call for $0.75. The strategy offers an investor at least the chance to collect the premium and perhaps maybe even make a profit on the call which was purchased if there is a surprise in earnings because the November expiration covers the third quarter earnings call. When it is all said and done, it matters what the stock has done in an investor's portfolio at the end of the day. For me, Gilead is my largest position and has been horrible as I'm down 14.4% on the name including reinvested dividends, while the position occupies roughly 15.6% of my portfolio. I continue to believe in it as a wild card name because it has been beaten down and offers value. I own the stock for the wild card portion of my portfolio, and I will continue to hold onto the stock for now. My portfolio is up 5.9% since the inception, while the S&P 500 is up 2.7%. Below is a quick glance of my portfolio and how each position is performing. Thanks for reading and I look forward to your comments.
deeersteronde schreef op 17 oktober 2016 18:28 :
[...]
Tussenstand. Momenteel 2 Ab'tjes. Dat moet beter kunnen. Niet ?
mijn handen zijn gebonden, mag maar 1 geven. Maar troost je heb je voor bovenstaande reactie ook 1 gegeven, dus eigenlijk stiekem 2. En vooruit de eindveiling in gedachten ook nog 3. Tja er zijn altijd nog betere post als die van jou, haha.
Filgotinib, a selective JAK1 inhibitor, induces clinical remission in moderate-to-severe Crohn’s disease patients www.glpg.com/docs/view/5804baadc5c05-en
Shareholders chart is bijgewerkt: www.glpg.com/major-shareholders
NielsjeB schreef op 17 oktober 2016 19:21 :
Shareholders chart is bijgewerkt:
www.glpg.com/major-shareholders Iets wat mij hierbij opvalt is dat Abbvie hier niet bij is, ondanks het partnerschap met GLPG voor CF. Zij hebben er toch ook belang bij om, zoals Gilead, een belang te hebben of is dit niet nodig?
Medion50 schreef op 17 oktober 2016 18:06 :
[...]
Laatste maand is bij mij nog steeds 4 weken.
Ik ben tevreden , tot vrijdag expiratie wat rommelen zonder PB ;-)
Eind van het jaar graag € 72,5 of wat minder.
je bedoelt gerommel in de marge. Denk dat we het dieptepunt nog niet hebben gezien.
omaneus schreef op 17 oktober 2016 21:21 :
[...]je bedoelt gerommel in de marge. Denk dat we het dieptepunt nog niet hebben gezien.
Dat heet niet "denken" hoor... Maar dat heet gewoon "jezelf herhalen" zonder er bij na te denken.
Kun je ons misschien vertellen wanneer de wereld vergaat het glas is half leeg doemdenker omakneus?
Pl4 schreef op 17 oktober 2016 21:35 :
Kun je ons misschien vertellen wanneer de wereld vergaat het glas is half leeg doemdenker omakneus?
De wereld zal vergaan als ik er het loodje bij neerleg. Want ik hou de wereld zowat overeind op mijn eentje. En dat beste lezers, dat weten jullie allemaal HEEL goed !
Pl4 schreef op 17 oktober 2016 21:35 :
Kun je ons misschien vertellen wanneer de wereld vergaat het glas is half leeg doemdenker omakneus?
Je had verwacht dat we in 1x naar de 100 euro gingen. Was het maar zo'n groot feest. Voorlopig zullen we een pas op de plaats maken bij geen of iets minder goed nieuws. Het mooie nieuws laat zich nog enige tijd op zich wachten.
omaneus schreef op 17 oktober 2016 21:44 :
[...]Je had verwacht dat we in 1x naar de 100 euro gingen. Was het maar zo'n groot feest.
Voorlopig zullen we een pas op de plaats maken bij geen of iets minder goed nieuws.
Het mooie nieuws laat zich nog enige tijd op zich wachten.
Dus volgens jou: hebben we het dieptepunt nog niet gezien en vervolgens zeg je: voorlopig zullen we een pas op de plaats maken. Correct me if i'm wrong... maar volgens mij zijn dit twee verschillende dingen... Maw: je weet het gewoon niet en je roept maar iets. Maar beste omaneus wat denk jij nou van de komende CF data?
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