inspirator schreef op 15 juni 2016 17:01:
21 juni overname MdxHealth door Exact Sciences een feit
Exact Sciences: What the Heck is Going On?
By Ben Levisohn
Yesterday, shares of Exact Sciences (EXAS) surged for no reason at all. Today, they’re up another 7%–and we now know the reason for the stock’s big move. Canaccord Genuity’s Mark Massaro and Mary Kate Gorman explain:
We reiterate our BUY rating on Exact Sciences and raise our PT to $12 from $9. Around 10 pm ET or so on Tuesday (June 14), the USPSTF uploaded a 12-page recommendation statement that we believe bodes well for Exact Sciences. In the document, the USPSTF removed the words “recommended” and “alternative” and reiterated that “colorectal cancer screening” is an A rating, and clearly removed any hierarchy of test modalities. We spoke late last night with management, which is declining comment until the USPSTF formally announces these statements (press release) or when JAMA publishes these findings (June 21 on the Task Force document). We’ll let events play out over the next few days before we update out-year revenue estimates. Our raised PT to $12 now uses a 6.0x multiple on our unchanged 2018 revenue estimate of $250M, discounted back to the present at a 15% discount rate. Our view is that this is long-awaited great news for Exact Sciences, a decision we believe will trigger commercial payor mandates, notably from UnitedHealth Group (UNH) and Aetna (AET), to name two. The next key controversy likely turns to at what price the large payors will pay for Cologuard.
Remember, shares of Exact Sciences lost nearly half their value back in October after it was originally designated an “alternative.”