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benbelegger 12 november 2013 14:29

Gisteren omhoog, vandaag weer omlaag en dat allemaal vanwege verdeelde adviezen. De toekomst ziet er niet erg rooskleurig uit, zo te zien is rek er uit (voorlopig ).....

Uit The Guardian:

Royal Bank of Scotland slips after downbeat broker notes
Nomura repeats reduce recommendation on bank while Goldman cuts its rating

Royal Bank of Scotland is among the fallers after analysts at Nomura repeated their reduce recommendation, albeit edging up their price target, and Goldman cut its rating.

Nomura said investors needed to be patient to see a recovery at RBS - which has set up an internal good and bad bank - and there was potential for disappointment. Analyst Chintan Joshi said:

RBS's future value is driven by its core profitability. We extend our estimates to 2018, and expect group return on tangible equity to improve from around 6.5%-7% in 2015 to around 12.5% in 2018. Valuations based on 2018 estimates, when discounted to today, offer modest upside. However, a lot can change on such horizons, and valuations are very sensitive to assumptions. We do not see investors willing to look forward five years, and on a three-year outlook we still see material downside from current levels.

Looking through to 2016, we see core earnings per share excluding [US subsidiary] Citizens Financial Group at 34.2p, which puts RBS on a valuation of around 340p. We also expect dividends and excess capital per share of 12.4p and 31p, respectively. If we discount this to today, we see RBS's fair value at 285p. Litigation charges in excess of £6bn by 2018, Citizens' sale below 1.1 times price to book value, restructuring charges not yet announced, and changes to macro sentiment create downside risk. We retain our reduce rating and prefer Barclays, which trades on similar valuations with better return on equity levels.

With all that, Nomura has lifted its price target from 270p to 285p.

At the same time, Goldman Sachs has moved from buy to neutral. In the market RBS has lost 7.2p to 332.6p.

These new recommendations come just a day after analysts at Jefferies raised their price target on RBS from 390p to 441p, so it is safe to say there is a wide range of views on the bank in the City.

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RBS week 46

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