bionerd schreef op 23 december 2020 15:09:
Van een ander forum, maar geeft wel een goede samenvatting waar Baru nu staat. Grote nieuws over vergunning moet nog steeds, komen maar je ziet dat er langzaam een uptrend begint in de aanloop naar het verlossende nieuws. Vooral gedreven door speculatieve beleggers. LT beleggers blijven lekker zitten tot de bom lost barst.
News is out on all fronts that the commodities bull run is still in tact, was just a correction, and is going to continue into 2021. Couple of points on this:
- US just approve $900B COVID plan
- Vaccines are out, but not defensive against any other strains as found in UK recently
- infrastructure spending is the key, which will fuel need for base metals and overall commodities
- China is leading the charge out on growth out of covid
Macro economics is supporting all gold companies including gold juniors.
Fundamentally, this is one of few juniors who will actually be producing! On top, BARU has the money ($5.5m in the bank) to drill. Thus this is a gold producing + drilling play + re-rating of a property that has a 3,140,000 oz gold + 10,000,000 oz silver, that is not on the company's books. This resource alone (Miwah) brought the company to its max heigh of $600m market cap back in 2010-2011. Thus the re-rating once this property is back on company's books will be an instant reward to shareholders.
But back to gold production and drilling. Market is all waiting for the production permit, but the company is forging ahead with ordering equipment supplies, hiring of mine manager, continuing with land acquisition, hiring of community/government liaison. Most of all, the company has connections to get this done, just like they did with AMDAL. With the hiring of the community/government liason, I'm betting this is a done deal except for a signature on the paperwork which is delayed due to COVID. All signs point to a no brainer approval for production permit.
What does this mean? 4-6 months from now and with production permit to produce, with commodities prices for gold at $1900 to above $2000, cash cost of $700/oz, and production of 1000oz/month, the math points to $1,200,000 per month revenue. This is already factoring in 30% giveaway to local company which is offset by an avg currency conversion of $1.3 US/Cad. $14m annual revenue for BARU vs. current $24m market cap. Quite interesting considering they will get up to 4000oz/month production = $56m annual revenue.
On top of this is the drilling of the 90% of Sangihe which has not been drilled yet, and likely moving the resource up to 2m oz gold. And as mentioned, Miwah with 3.14m oz gold at $50 valuation for inferred is $150m in resource alone vs. $24m market cap currently.
The math however you do it, shows this very undervalued. Thus the re-rating will be furious when it happens. When it will happen, no idea. Will there be a warning that allows investors to get in before the re-rating event occurs, no idea. Anyone want to take that chance to get in before the re-rating event? be my guest.
I'm sure there will be many on the re-rating day that they are the smart ones and market they realized a "100%+ gain" and they knew about it. Glad for those who want to publicize that, free marketing for the co. Those who actually held shares are the ones who will gain. Obviously.