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Tot hoever stijgt de olieprijs?

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Dikke proficiat, Hans.

Zeker een draad als de olieprijs blijft altijd de moeite waard om te volgen. En saai is het allerminst want die olieprijs vliegt ook werkelijk alle kanten iedere keer weer uit. Een student die eens een mooie scriptie over de ontwikkelingen van de olieprijs in het verleden zou willen schrijven, die hoeft eigenlijk alleen maar al die postings van jou in deze draad na te lezen en proberen die gegevens in een goed verhaal samen te vatten.
Vooral laatste half jaar fluctueerde die prijs toch enorm.


Peter
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CPC Marine Terminal loaded 61.08 million tonnes of crude oil in 2018

Port News reportd that in 2018, the CPC Marine Terminal loaded 61,084,031 gross tons of crude oil, 5,976,056 tons up on its 2017 results, setting a new annual loading record for the CPC oil port. According to the company, loading was at the most accelerated tempo in December: over 5,954,994 tons (47,142,565 barrels) were loaded into the tanks of oil carrier ships during that period. In December 2018, 55 tankers set off on a voyage from the single point moorings, which allowed to record an annual of 558 vessels.

Out of the just over 61 million tons of oil loaded at the Marine Terminal in 2018, 54.3 million tons of crude oil were supplied by Kazakhstan shippers, another 6.8 million tons of oil coming from Russia. The largest oil volumes came into the CPC pipeline system in 2018 from the Tengiz, Karachaganak and Kashagan fields - 28.7 million tons, 10.3 million tons, and 13.2 million tons respectively.

CPC Pipeline System is one of the major investment projects in energy sector with participation of foreign capital in the CIS. The length of the Tengiz–Novorossiysk pipeline is 1,511 km; it transports over two thirds of all Kazakhstan export crude, as well as crude from Russian oil fields, including the Caspian Region. CPC Marine Terminal is equipped with three Single Point Moorings (SPM) that allow to load tankers safely at a significant distance offshore, also amid poor weather conditions.

CPC Shareholders: Russian Federation (represented by Transneft – 24% and CPC Company – 7%) – 31%; Republic of Kazakhstan (represented by Kazmunaygaz – 19% and Kazakhstan Pipeline Ventures LLC – 1.75%) – 20.75%; Chevron Caspian Pipeline Consortium Company - 15%, LUKARCO B.V. - 12.5%, Mobil Caspian Pipeline Company – 7.5%, Rosneft-Shell Caspian Ventures Limited – 7.5%, BG Overseas Holding Limited - 2%, Eni International N.A. N.V. - 2% and Oryx Caspian Pipeline LLC – 1.75%.

Source : Port News
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Nigeria is producing 1.78 million barrels of crude per day - Minister

Reuters reported that Minister of State for Petroleum Emmanuel Kachikwu said that Nigeria is producing 1.78 million barrels of crude oil per day (bpd).

He added that the West African country was expecting output from Egina field to reach 150,000 bpd by the end of month which could boost total production.

Source : Reuters
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Middle East, Africa and Asia now drive nearly all global energy consumption growth - EIA

Energy consumption in Asia, the Middle East, and Africa continues to grow rapidly, with about 20% growth in each region between 2010 and 2016, according to newly available data in EIA’s International Energy Statistics database. In particular, energy consumption has been increasing in the Middle East and Africa, driven by economic growth, increased access to energy markets, and quickly growing populations. Energy consumption in Asia grew even as energy consumption in China declined between 2015 and 2016.

Although growth was rapid in Africa and the Middle East, Asia and Oceania consumed much more energy overall (42% of 2016 world energy consumption, compared with 6% in the Middle East and 3% in Africa). Slower long-term energy consumption trends continued in the mature economies of North America, where energy consumption grew by 1% between 2010 and 2016, and in Europe, where energy consumption actually fell 4% between those years.

Globally, petroleum and other liquid fuels (including biofuels such as ethanol and biodiesel) are the most prevalent form of energy consumed. Growing use of these fuels has been supported by increasing supplies of U.S. shale oil and other international sources of liquid fuels that have kept prices relatively competitive. Global coal consumption continued to decline as a result of competition from low cost natural gas as well as some countries’ policies to limit or decrease coal use.

Regional fuel use varies according to the availability of resources. In 2016, coal accounted for almost 50% of the energy consumed in Asia and Oceania, where China, India, and Australia are all significant consumers of coal. The largest shares of nuclear and renewable energy were in Europe (26%), North America (19%), and Central and South America (26%).

These regions, particularly Europe and North America, have significant renewable resources as well as policies that encourage renewable energy usage, especially wind and solar. Because of the region’s rich reserves of oil and natural gas, nearly all energy consumption in the Middle East comes from either petroleum or natural gas with virtually no contribution from coal, nuclear, or renewable energy.

From 2000 to 2013, China experienced rapid growth in energy consumption, overtaking the United States as the world’s largest energy consumer in 2009. Since 2013, China has consistently used approximately 40% more energy than the United States. Although growth in China’s gross domestic product (GDP) has slowed over this time period, it continues to grow faster than 6% per year compared with relatively flat total energy consumption, demonstrating the country’s improvements in energy intensity (GDP per unit energy).

By comparison, India’s GDP is growing at a rate of almost 8% per year, and energy use is growing as well. In recent years, India has surpassed Japan, Canada, and Germany in energy consumed. As more recent data become available, India is likely to surpass Russia as the third-highest energy consuming country.

Detailed country-level data on energy production, consumption, and transport through 2016 are available in EIA’s International Energy Statistics database. Natural gas data, petroleum supply data, GDP, and population are available through 2017. EIA Country Analysis Briefs supplement the International Energy Statistics database with key information on energy production and consumption trends.

Source : Strategic Research Institute
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Saudi Arabia to trim oil exports further in February

Reuters reported that Saudi Arabia plans to lower its shipments further in February as it follows through on a global deal to cut output to prevent a build-up in supplies. Saudi Energy Minister Khalid al-Falih told a news conference in Riyadh that the kingdom would export 7.1 million barrels per day (bpd) in February, down from 7.2 million bpd in January. He also said Saudi Arabia was producing 10.20 million bpd, delivering on an earlier pledge to cut output further than required by a supply-limiting deal between the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies such as Russia.

Saudi Arabia had a target to lower output to 10.311 million bpd as of Jan. 1, when the supply cut accord took effect.

Source : Reuters
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Norway cuts 2019 oil output forecast to reach 30-year low

Bloomberg reported that Norwegian Petroleum Directorate (NPD) said that Norway's oil output in 2019 will be smaller than previously forecast and will reach its lowest level in three decades. Investment in Western Europe's largest oil producer and Europe's second-largest gas producer behind Russia surged after a decline due to the slump in oil prices in 2014 to 2016. Despite that, oil output in 2017 of 86.2 million cubic metres (mcm), or 542 million barrels, missed the 90.2 mcm forecast made a year ago. The regulator added that output in 2019 was expected to be 82.2 mcm, against a previous forecast of 87.2 mcm.

NPD head Bente Nyland told Reuters that last year's results missed forecasts and this year's prediction was cut due to start-up delays and production difficulties in several fields.

Norway's gas production last year stood at 119.3 billion cubic metres (bcm), also missing a 121.2 bcm forecast. In 2019 it is expected to rise slightly to 119.5 bcm but still below a previous forecast of 121.4 bcm and below the record 122 bcm produced in 2017.

Source : Bloomberg
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China zet olieprijs lager

(ABM FN-Dow Jones) De prijs voor een vat ruwe olie is maandag lager gesloten, als gevolg van zwakke macro-economische cijfers in China.

De olieprijs sloot vrijdag ook al lager, na negen opeenvolgende handelsdagen hoger gesloten te zijn. De olieprijs bereikte vorige week nog het hoogste niveau sinds begin december.

De recente volatiliteit in de oliemarkt leidt tot zorgen bij Saoedi-Arabië, maar de fundamenten verbeteren wel. Dit zei energieminister Khalid al-Falih zondag. "De huidige fundamenten bewegen duidelijk in de juiste richting", aldus de minister tijdens een energiebijeenkomst in Abu Dhabi.

Al-Falih voegde daaraan toe dat Saoedi-Arabië de olie-export wil terugbrengen van 7,2 miljoen vaten per dag in januari naar 7,1 miljoen in februari.

De cijfers uit China lieten maandag een zwakke import en export zien in december. Het handelsoverschot van China met de Verenigde Staten steeg vorig jaar naar een nieuw record van 323 miljard dollar, terwijl de twee landen proberen om deze onevenwichtigheid op te lossen.

De tegenvallende cijfers vergroten de zorg over de staat van de Chinese economie, de op één na grootste ter wereld. Mogelijk heeft dit een afnemende vraag naar olie ten gevolg.

“In december was er een drastische achteruitgang van de Chinese handelsactiviteiten, als gevolg van het handelsdispuut met de VS. Tegen de verwachting in daalde zowel de export als de import op jaarbasis”, stelden analisten van Commerzbank maandag.

“De zwakke Chinese cijfers verhogen de bezorgdheid over een vertraging van de mondiale economische groei. Tegenvallende cijfers uit Europa over de industriële productie deden ook de bezorgdheid toenemen”. zei analist Phil Flynn van Price Futures Group. “Het doet ook de vraag rijzen of de stimuleringsmaatregelen, die zijn afgekondigd, voldoende zijn om een grote vertraging van de Chinese economie te voorkomen.”

Een februari-future voor een vat ruwe WTI-olie werd maandag 2,1 procent, ofwel 1,08 dollar, goedkoper op 50,51 dollar op de New York Mercantile Exchange.

Door: ABM Financial News.
info@abmfn.nl
Redactie: +31(0)20 26 28 999

© Copyright ABM Financial News B.V. All rights reserved.
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Saudi Arabia to set up mega oil refinery in Pakistan

Reuters reported that Saudi Arabia plans to set up a $10 billion oil refinery in Pakistan's deepwater port of Gwadar. Saudi Energy Khalid al-Falih told reporters in Gwadar "Saudi Arabia wants to make Pakistan's economic development stable through establishing an oil refinery and partnership with Pakistan in the China Pakistan Economic Corridor. Crown Prince Mohammad bin Salman would visit Pakistan in February to sign the agreement.”

Pakistan wants to attract investment and other financial support to tackle a soaring current account deficit caused partly by rising oil prices. Last year, Saudi Arabia offered Pakistan a USD 6 billion package that included help to finance crude imports.

Source : Reuters
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Lukoil proves geological model for Eridu field

LUKOIL has successfully completed testing of the fourth well as part of Eridu field (Block 10) appraisal phase in the south of Iraq. The testing resulted in the commercial flow of dry crude oil that proves the current geological model of Eridu field as effective. ?

LUKOIL continues geological exploration at Block 10. For instance, the company plans to drill and test several appraisal wells and to complete 3D and 2D seismic surveys for Eridu field and the block's southern and central parts, respectively.

Source : Strategic Research institute
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US oil drillers cut rigs for second week in a row - Baker Hughes

Reuters reported that US energy firms cut oil rigs for a second week in a row as more producers, like Occidental Petroleum Corp, turned conservative in their 2019 drilling plans due to uncertainty over a recovery in crude prices. Drillers cut four oil rigs in the week to Jan. 11, bringing the total count down to 873.

The US rig count, an early indicator of future output, is still much higher than a year ago when 752 rigs were active after energy companies boosted spending in 2018 to capture higher prices that year.

Source : Reuters
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UAE energy minister expects average oil price of USD 70 in 2019

United Arab Emirates Energy Minister Suhail al-Mazrouei said on Saturday he expects an average oil price of USD 70 a barrel in 2019 on the back of an agreement to cut output by OPEC and non-OPEC oil exporters. Mazrouei said "Today, we look at an average year of around USD 70 for Brent. This level would help encourage global oil investments.”

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and other leading global oil producers led by Russia agreed in December to cut their combined oil output by 1.2 million barrels per day in order to balance the oil market starting from January.

Source : Reuters
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Saudi energy minister concerned about oil price volatility

AP reported that Saudi Arabia's energy minister said Sunday that major oil producers need to do better to narrow swings in prices that dip below USD 60 a barrel and rise above USD 86. Khalid al-Falih said "I think what we need to do is narrow the range of volatility. We need to do better and the more producers that work with us, the better we're able to do so.”

Cautious not to set a price target or range, he explained there are consequences when oil prices dip too low or rise too high.

Last month, OPEC countries, including Saudi Arabia, and other major oil producers agreed to cut production by 1.2 million barrels a day to reduce oversupply and boost prices for the first six months of 2019. Oil producers are under pressure to reduce production following a sharp fall in oil prices in recent months because major producers, including the United States, are pumping oil at high rates.

Source : AP
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US official rules out further waivers on Iran oil imports

Reuters reported that US special representative for Iran, underlining Washington's push to choke off Tehran's income, said that the United States is not looking to grant more waivers for Iranian oil imports after the reimposition of US sanctions. Brian Hook told a industry conference in the United Arab Emirates capital Abu Dhabi “We are not looking to grant any waivers or exemptions to the import of Iranian crude."

Hook declined to say what the administration in Washington would do when those waivers end in May.

Washington had granted waivers to eight major buyers of Iranian oil, including China, India, Japan and South Korea, after restoring energy sanctions in November.

Source : Reuters
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Olieprijs flink hoger gesloten

(ABM FN-Dow Jones) De olieprijs is dinsdag gestegen op nieuwe plannen van de Chinese overheid.

Een februari-future voor een vat ruwe WTI-olie werd dinsdag 3,2 procent, ofwel 1,60 dollar, duurder op 52,11 dollar op de New York Mercantile Exchange.

Terwijl tegenvallende exportcijfers uit China maandag nog voor een daling zorgden van de olieprijs, was de aankondiging van nieuwe stimuleringen door Beijing dinsdag juist reden voor optimisme onder oliehandelaren.

De Chinese regering meldde vandaag meer te gaan doen om de economie aan te jagen, na signalen dat deze sterker aan het vertragen is. De kredietverlening aan kleinere bedrijven moet verbeteren, investeringen in infrastructuur worden versneld en de belastingen gaan omlaag.

Door: ABM Financial News.
info@abmfn.nl
Redactie: +31(0)20 26 28 999

© Copyright ABM Financial News B.V. All rights reserved.
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Amerikaanse olievoorraden dalen

(ABM FN-Dow Jones) De voorraden ruwe olie in de Verenigde Staten zijn vorige week zoals verwacht verder gedaald. Dit bleek woensdag uit cijfers van het Amerikaanse energieministerie.

In de week eindigend op 11 januari daalden/stegen de voorraden ruwe olie met 2,7 miljoen vaten tot 437,1 miljoen vaten. Analisten rekenden vooraf op een daling van 2,0 miljoen vaten.

De voorgaande week daalden de voorraden na twee weken met stabiele voorrraad.

De benzinevoorraden stegen met 7,5 miljoen vaten tot 255,6 miljoen vaten. Analisten rekenden hier op een stijging met 2,3 miljoen vaten.

De voorraden stookolie en diesel namen met 3,0 miljoen vaten toe tot 143,0 miljoen vaten. Verwacht werd een toename van 0,9 miljoen vaten.

De capaciteitsbenutting van de raffinaderijen zakte van 96,1 procent naar 94,6 procent. Hier werd gerekend op een daling tot 95,4 procent.

Door: ABM Financial News.
info@abmfn.nl
Redactie: +31(0)20 26 28 999

© Copyright ABM Financial News B.V. All rights reserved.
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Correctie: Amerikaanse olievoorraden dalen

(ABM FN-Dow Jones) De voorraden ruwe olie in de Verenigde Staten zijn vorige week zoals verwacht verder gedaald. Dit bleek woensdag uit cijfers van het Amerikaanse energieministerie.

In de week eindigend op 11 januari daalden de voorraden ruwe olie met 2,7 miljoen vaten tot 437,1 miljoen vaten. Analisten rekenden vooraf op een daling van 2,0 miljoen vaten.

De voorgaande week daalden de voorraden ook.

De benzinevoorraden stegen met 7,5 miljoen vaten tot 255,6 miljoen vaten. Analisten rekenden hier op een stijging met 2,3 miljoen vaten.

De voorraden stookolie en diesel namen met 3,0 miljoen vaten toe tot 143,0 miljoen vaten. Verwacht werd een toename van 0,9 miljoen vaten.

De capaciteitsbenutting van de raffinaderijen zakte van 96,1 procent naar 94,6 procent. Hier werd gerekend op een daling tot 95,4 procent.

Correctie: om aan te geven dat de voorraden ruwe olie zijn gedaald, niet gestegen.

Door: ABM Financial News.
info@abmfn.nl
Redactie: +31(0)20 26 28 999

© Copyright ABM Financial News B.V. All rights reserved.
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Alaska officials probing BP oil & gas wells at Prudhoe Bay after spill

Reuters reported that regulators in the US state of Alaska will investigate all of the oil and natural gas wells operated by BP Plc at its Prudhoe Bay oil field after the release of a small amount of crude oil and gas from a well that had earlier been shut. The Alaska Oil and Gas Conservation Commission (AOGCC) has scheduled a February 7 hearing to assess the mechanical integrity of Prudhoe Bay wells operated by BP Exploration (Alaska) Inc.

Last month's leak occurred at one of 14 wells that BP had shut in 2017 following a much bigger release oil and gas then. The most recent failure, detected on December 7, released natural gas and about two gallons of crude oil. The gas release was brought under control two days later. There was no oil released to the tundra and no one was injured

The earlier failure, in April 2017, caused crude oil to spray over a roughly 1 acre (0.4 hectare) area and caused natural gas to vent for days before it was brought under control. That well failure was linked to permafrost thaw. The normally frozen soil thawed, triggering movement that pushed the well up 3 to 4 feet (1.2 meters), breaking a pressure gauge that previously regulated the site, according to regulators.

Source : Reuters
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Olieprijs stijgt nauwelijks

(ABM FN-Dow Jones) De olieprijs is woensdag hoger gesloten.

Een februari-future voor een vat ruwe olie eindigde woensdag 0,4 procent hoger op 52,31 dollar op de New York Mercantile Exchange.

Eerder op de dag stond de olieprijs nog lager nadat bleek dat de Amerikaanse benzinevoorraden naar het hoogste niveau in bijna twee jaar zijn gestegen. Lagere vraag in een mogelijke economische vertraging was van invloed.

Weliswaar daalde de voorraad ruwe olie, wat goed was voor het sentiment voor een hogere olieprijs. De sterkere toename van benzine en andere olieproducten betekende echter dat de olieprijs onder druk kwam te staan.

"Elk 'bullish' sentiment van de lagere voorraad ruwe olie is overwonnen door de nadrukkelijke opbouw van voorraden van geraffineerde producten, met name benzine, waarvan de voorraden zo'n 6 procent hoger zijn dan het vijfjarige gemiddelde", stelt Matt Smith van grondstoffenonderzoeksbedrijf ClipperData.

De olieprijs staat nog altijd zo'n 20 procent hoger dan de dieptepunten die aan het einde van vorig jaar werden vertoond. Beleggers werden positiever over de mondiale economische groei en signalen dat het overaanbod van olie in de markt aan het verdwijnen is.

Door: ABM Financial News.
info@abmfn.nl
Redactie: +31(0)20 26 28 999

© Copyright ABM Financial News B.V. All rights reserved.
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