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Tom Riddle®
0
quote:

Willempie3 schreef op 1 feb 2013 om 12:01:


Voor de grap eens uitgezocht hoe het nu zit met de verhouding tussen het totale BNP van de wereld en de totale waarde van al het goud in de wereld.
>
>
>
>
Dan kan er zomaar een goudprijs van 4000 of 5000 Dollar staan. Of 10.000 Dollar als de Dollar flink devalueert doordat er veel bijgedrukt wordt.
We gaan het zien.

W3.


The Mathematics Of Gold
May 26, 2011, at 10:51 am
by Jim Sinclair

Dear CIGAs,
Little by little, I am passing on ALL that I have learned from Jesse through Bert and Bert’s knowledge to those that read here, every day, in thanks for your support of me and mine.
–JEBS (James Edwin Bertram Sinclair)

Assumption:
Because gold is held by many central banks, once as a reserve currency but now as an inventory currency, it functions as a swing asset to balance the International Balance sheet of the US.
Central banks are sellers of dollars but still hold, by default, large dollar inventories.
China has hedged its dollar position 50% through commitments to long term dollar commercial agreements, pay in, mineral, and energy deals internationally. That is an act of pure genius.
We can assume other central banks still hold 90% of their reported dollar positions, on average unhedged by commercial obligation positions.
In crisis times, the US dollar price of gold ALWAYS seeks to balance the International Balance Sheet of the USA.

Therefore:
Take 90% of international US dollar debt less China and then add 50% of the US debt owned by China. Then divide that number by the ounces supposed to be owned by the US Treasury. The result is where gold wants to go.
In 1974 this gave me $900 gold. Now you do your homework, and submit your analysis to me. Do this, and I will give you Angels going to that price by a little known technique of Jesse Livermore that only works on gold after it has broken to a new high above all resistance.
Little by little I am passing on all that I have learned from Jesse through Bert to those that read every day in thanks for your support of me and mine.
Jim

######################################

June 7, 2011, at 1:28 pm

Dear Jim,

The following is an analysis of your Mathematics of Gold. The analysis was conducted by our summer intern and we thought it may be of interest to your readers.

Kind Regards
Isaac Matzner
Research Coordinator
Auerbach Grayson & Company
25 West 45th Street
New York, NY 10036 USA


Case: The Mathematics of Gold
June 7, 2011, at 1:28 pm

International US dollar debt: $4.4792 trillion (approximately 32% of total US debt of $14.32 trillion)
Portion of international US dollar debt held by China: $1.1449 trillion
90% of total US international debt less portion held by China = 0.90 * ($4.4792 trillion – $1.1449 trillion) = $3.00087 trillion (A)
50% of international US dollar debt held by China = 0.50 * $1.1449 trillion = $0.57245 trillion (B)
Total foreign currency reserves held by People’s Bank of China (Central Bank): $3.045 trillion

Therefore, A + B = $3.57332 trillion (C)
Total US holdings of gold = 8,133.5 tonnes = 8,133.5 * 35,273.9619 = 286.900770 million ounces (D)
Therefore, C/D = $12,454.8986 per ounce ~ $12,455 per ounce
Balance of Payments is an account of financial flows between a country and the rest of the world. It consists of the Current account and the Capital account. Current account consists of the trading account (exports minus imports of good and services), income account (factor payments from abroad minus factor payments to abroad) and the transfer payments account (foreign aid received minus foreign aid disbursed). Capital account, which is in surplus on account of increasing foreign investments in US treasury securities and in deficit for increased US investments in foreign securities and reserves. A surplus in the current account should always be balanced by a deficit in the capital account and vice-versa. That is, the balance of payments must always balance.
Suppose the balance of payments account does not balance. Then there are two options to balance BOP, first, the Central Bank of the country (in this case US Federal Reserve) should increase/reduce its reserves, that is the Central Bank’s holdings of foreign currencies and gold to bring BOP to balance. Second, if the Central Bank cannot increase/decrease its reserves or has decided against changing its existing reserve holdings, then the exchange rate of the country’s currency will be decided by the market and the government will not have any control over its currency.
Now, US has a current account deficit and the BOP is balanced by capital account surplus. If the BOP was not in balance and if US wanted to keep the existing exchange rates fixed, assuming it had a BOP deficit (international debt we calculated above), then it would either have to sell foreign exchange reserves or appropriate amount of gold to the tune of $12,455 per ounce.

Thus, to balance the US government balance sheet, its holdings of gold should be valued at $12,455 per ounce.

Present market value of gold = $1,528.80 per troy ounce = $1,528.80 / 1.09714286 per ounce = $1,393.44 per ounce. This means that gold is heavily undervalued at it existing market price. Thus the price of gold has to be raised 8.94 times ($12,455/$1,393.44) ~ 9 times to the present price of gold for US balance sheet to balance.

References:
1. Link: en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_p...
2. Link: www.treasury.gov/resource-center/data...
3. Link: en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Foreign_exchang...
4. Link: en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gold_reserve
5. Link: finance.yahoo.com/

Ayan Kole,
Michael F. Price College of Business,
University of Oklahoma
[verwijderd]
0
quote:

Mon-E-Man schreef op 3 feb 2013 om 02:36:


Gold and silver prices jump as Q4 GDP drop points to more money printing from the Federal Reserve

www.arabianmoney.net/gold-silver/2013...


Zilver zit onder de 32 en goud zit ruim onder de 1680.
Dat artikeltje is denk ik geschreven onmiddellijk na de arbeidsmarktcijfers. Die niveaus zijn overigens ook niet interessant.
Het gaat om grofweg 1525/1550 aan de onderkant en 1800 aan de bovenkant. Alles daar tussen in is "gerommel".
[verwijderd]
0
Zie hier wat het in elkaar stampen van een valuta betekent....PLUS 6% voor goud in YEN:

Bijlage:
voda
0
Orbis Gold pinpoints new gold targets in Burkina Faso

Orbis Gold has confirmed multiple high order gold in soil anomalies through infill soil sampling at the Bantou Prospect in southwest Burkina Faso.

Gold in soil anomalism grading at over 50 parts per billion extends over an area of around 3 kilometers by 3.5 kilometers. An initial induced polarization geophysical survey in the Bantou area has identified multiple chargeable resistivity anomalies coincident with soil anomalies.

As a further measure of the prospectivity of the new targets, the induced polarization anomalism in the immediate Bantou Prospect area shows a strong correlation with the known, drill tested, distribution of gold mineralization within the Bantou structures.

This includes reverse circulation drill intersections of 8 metres at 80.32 grams per tonne gold from 36 meters, 9 meters at 16.79 gram per tonne gold from 91 meters and 16 meters at 10.2 gram per tonne gold from 17 meters.

Linear northeast southwest trending structures defined within the Bantou induced polarization survey area exceed an aggregate 5 kilometers strike length.

Orbis plans to begin a program of reverse circulation and diamond drilling in the Bantou Prospect area this week to further drill test strike and depth extensions to the known Bantou structures and provide an initial drill test of the coincident geochemical and geophysical anomalies.

Drilling to date on the Bantou Prospect has been limited to an 80 meter maximum depth, predominantly within a 600 meter strike length of the Bantou artisanal workings.

Two sub parallel lodes have been identified in the Bantou area the main structure and hanging wall structure. Mineralization on both structures is open at the limit of current drilling. The induced polarization geophysical anomalies are open at the limit of the initial 2.3 square kilometers survey area.

Less than 10% of high order soil anomalies within the Dynikongolo permit which covers the Bantou Prospect have been tested by induced polarization surveys to date. Surveying is currently ongoing to cover additional high order soil anomalies across the exploration permit.

Source - Proactive Investors.com

whammy
1
"Gold stored in your home safe is not immediately available as collateral in case you need foreign currency. Take, for instance, the key role that the US dollar plays as a reserve currency in the global financial system. The gold held with the New York Fed can, in a crisis, be pledged with the Federal Reserve Bank as collateral against US dollar-denominated liquidity."
rt.com/usa/columns/peter-schiff-econo...
whammy
1
The general pattern in commodity markets since the mid-2000s has “been a boom followed by a bust followed by another boom, and then by what turned out to be another bust,” said Jessop. “This is a rollercoaster, not a super-cycle.”
blogs.marketwatch.com/thetell/2013/02...
Mon-E-Man
0
ANALYST: We Are Entering A 'Strange World', Where The Dollar Gets Stronger, And Things Get Way More Unstable

Read more: www.businessinsider.com/sebastien-gal...
grz085
0
'Wisselkoersen moeten de marktverhouding zo goed mogelijk weergeven. Ik ben voor vrije wisselkoersen', aldus Weekers in reactie op uitlatingen van de Franse minister van financiën Pierre Moscovici. Die wil 'een gecoördineerde benadering om de wisselkoers te stabiliseren en de werkelijke staat van de eurozone te weerspiegelen'.
Minister Dijsselbloem zelf waagde zich maandag niet aan uitspraken over de koers van de euro, die door zijn voorganger Jean-Claude Juncker vorige maand nog 'gevaarlijke hoog' werd genoemd. 'Ik ga er niets over zeggen', aldus Dijsselbloem.
Cyprus
Weekers maakte verder bij aankomst in Brussel duidelijk dat Nederland wil dat private partijen fors meebetalen aan een steunpakket voor Cyprus, waarover de Eurogroep in maart een besluit wil nemen. 'We willen een goede bail-in van private partijen', aldus Weekers.
Volgens een memo dat door de Financial Times is ingezien, zou één van de opties die op tafel ligt zijn om obligatieshouders van zowel de Cypriotische banken als van staatsobligaties te dwingen een deel van hun vorderingen af te schrijven. Weekers wilde daar niet op ingaan.'We moeten eerst alle opties in beeld hebben'.
Alles kwijt
0
Goud en zilver zijn momenteel bezig om op een ongeremde manier af te storten.

Een (in mijn ogen) goede reden is er echter niet voor.
Er is sprake van een z.g. '' technical selloff ''.
[verwijderd]
0
quote:

Alles kwijt schreef op 12 feb 2013 om 02:19:


Goud en zilver zijn momenteel bezig om op een ongeremde manier af te storten.

Een (in mijn ogen) goede reden is er echter niet voor.
Er is sprake van een z.g. '' technical selloff ''.


Over een maand of twee weer up trend ?
[verwijderd]
0
[Modbreak IEX]: Gelieve hier geen reclame te maken, bericht is bij dezen verwijderd.]
Skater
1
Duurdere olie maar goedkopere edelmetalen, dat is geen trend die stand kan houden. Mijnen hebben een te lage winstmarge daarvoor. Hun aandelen worden nu de nek om gedraaid natuurlijk.
Heel bijzonder dat met zoveel verkoopdruk, zilver het beter doet dan goud. De schaarste bij de US en Canadian mint, versus de repatriatie van het Duitse goud.
Iets lager zullen goud en zilver nog wel duiken. De marges zijn al extra verlaagd, zodat ze meermalen verhogen als in April 2011 gebruikt kan worden een volgende bullmarket de kop in te drukken. Speculeren wordt sterk aangemoedigt, omdat dat zo heerlijk eenvoudige prijssturing en voorkennis geeft.
whammy
1
Countries like Russia and China use such stockpiles as an economic buffer against another wave of economic crisis or US dollar devaluation, as both remain weary of the US Federal Reserve’s stability and prefer to edge their bets on gold.
rt.com/business/news/russia-biggest-g...
whammy
0
“We are now moving irrevocably to a time when gold will measure currencies, not currencies measure gold,” said Julian Phillips, a South Africa-based contributor and founder at GoldForecaster.com.
www.marketwatch.com/story/how-gold-wi...
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