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Ben benieuwd maandag. The most important news announcement of the day was not anything to came out of Cannes (as nothing did), nor from Greece (the merry go round farce there continues unabated). No, it was a brief paragraph distributed by the CME long after everyone had gone home, and was already on their 3rd drink. It is critical, because not only is this announcement a direct consequence of what happened with MF Global several days ago, but because also it confirms one of our biggest concerns: systemic liquidity is non-existanet. We confirmed interbank liquidity in Europe was at an all time low earlier today, and can only assume the same is true for US banks. But what is very disturbing is that this is just as true at the exchange level, where it appears the aftermath of the MF collapse is just now being felt. What exactly was the announcement. Unless we are completely reading it incorrectly, it is nothing short of a margin call for tens if not hundreds of billions worth of product. Because as of close of business on November 4, today, the CME just made the maintenance margin, traditionally about 26% lower than the initial margin for specs, equal. For everything. Which means that by close of business Monday, millions of options and futures holders will be forced to deposit billions in additional capital to the CME just so they are not found to be margin deficient, and thus receive a margin call. Naturally, since it is very unlikely that this incremental amount of liquidity can be easily procured in one business day, we anticipate the issuance of hundreds of thousands of margin calls Monday, followed by forced liquidations of margin accounts across America... and the world. Just like when Lehman blew up, it took 5 days for Money Markets to break. Is this unprecedented elimination in the distinction between initial and maintenance margin the post-MF equivalent of the first domino to fall this time around? From the CME (source):
Wel even je bron vermelden....op Zerohedge wordt er al flink gediscussieerd over de gevolgen van het bovenstaande. Het ziet er naar uit dat dit alleen voor nieuwe contracten geldt, het is natuurlijk van de gekke om dit op bestaande posities te betrekken.
simi500 schreef op 5 november 2011 11:22 :
From the CME (source):
Welke source ? Is bij CME niets van te vinden. Wat er wel aan de hand is, is een margin tekort bij veel ex MF Global klanten. Al die accounts gaan naar andere brokers en die vragen de volle margin. En dat gaat om veel klanten en veel contracten. Dat zou maandag best wel eens voor wat commotie kunnen zorgen, JR
Heeft MF bewust die schuldpapieren van anderen gekocht(van wie): om ze ervan af te helpen ? en MF te laten klappen ?? ik heb zo mijn indrukken. High quality global journalism requires investment. Please share this article with others using the link below, do not cut & paste the article. See our Ts&Cs and Copyright Policy for more detail. Email ftsales.support@ft.com to buy additional rights. www.ft.com/cms/s/0/1b59c1bc-06e2-11e1... Accounts containing $659m belonging to customers of MF Global have turned up at JPMorgan Chase, the failed broker-dealer’s custody bank, according to a person familiar with the matter. The disclosure raised hopes of explaining a shortfall in customer accounts that emerged after the broker-dealer filed for bankruptcy on Monday. The gap, $633m as of Tuesday, sparked investigations by federal authorities. On Friday, Jon Corzine, MF Global chief executive, resigned. JPMorgan disclosed the funds to MF Global in a statement dated Monday, the person said. The statement revealed a total of $2.2bn – including MF Global’s own funds – held at JPMorgan, which also was listed as the largest unsecured creditor to its holding company. JPMorgan said it keeps customer and house funds for MF Global, but declined to quantify them. “There’s no way for JPMorgan to know if this is the ‘missing money’,” a spokeswoman said.www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/1b59c1bc-06e2... dealbook.nytimes.com/2011/11/03/as-re...
Arthanos schreef op 5 november 2011 12:27 :
www.cmegroup.com/tools-information/lo... Staat inderdaad in dit rijtje:www.cmegroup.com/tools-information/ad... Wordt nog leuk maandag, JR
de vraag is natuurlijk hoeveel speculanten houden minder dan de initial margin aan voor lopende posities en moeten dus (beperkt) bijstorten? en zijn dat mensen met long of short posities? maar om het in perspectief te plaatsen ... maintenance margin ES gaat van 4000 naar 5000 (=initial margin). dat komt overeen met een beweging van 20 punten in de ES. dat gebeurt ook regelmatig natuurlijk, dus de margin calls op dagen met redelijke bewegingen zijn groter dan wat je maandag kunt verwachten.
Klopt, het treft alleen degenen die hun leverage tot het maximum benutten.www.robertsinn.com/2011/11/05/margin-...
jrxs4all schreef op 5 november 2011 12:21 :
[...]
Wat er wel aan de hand is, is een margin tekort bij veel ex MF Global klanten. Al die accounts gaan naar andere brokers en die vragen de volle margin. .....
Misschien is de CME actie juist daarom en werkt het andersom dan eerst lijkt:kiddynamitesworld.com/the-cme-margin-...
jrxs4all schreef op 5 november 2011 17:06 :
Klopt, het treft alleen degenen die hun leverage tot het maximum benutten.
en daarnaast al verlies op hun positie hebben sinds opening
jrxs4all schreef op 5 november 2011 17:09 :
[...]
Misschien is de CME actie juist daarom en werkt het andersom dan eerst lijkt:
kiddynamitesworld.com/the-cme-margin-... dat zou trouwens goed kunnen inderdaad. als je maintenance margins hetzelfde houdt en je verlaagt de initial/maintenance naar 1 is de initial margin dus lager across the board. en dat vanwege margin posities die overgeboekt worden (die bij MF onder maintenance limiet vielen, maar bij nieuwe broker onder initial). lijkt me idd de juiste verklaring.
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