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AUGUST 11, 2010, 9:50 A.M. ET. Dollar Hits 15-Year Low Against Yen By FRANCES MCINNIS NEW YORK—The dollar fell to a 15-year low against the yen Wednesday after U.S. Treasury yields declined in the wake of measures announced by the Federal Reserve to keep its portfolio of securities from shrinking. The dollar dropped as far as 84.72 yen, its lowest level since July 1995, hit hard by the Fed's announcement of lower economic-growth forecasts and its decision to reinvest some proceeds of maturing mortgages. But elsewhere the greenback was mostly higher as investors shunned risk and European equities declined. The euro fell to an intraday low in New York below $1.2950, extending losses suffered in Asian and European trading as concerns about global growth sent investors into the perceived safety of the dollar and yen. The move away from higher-yielding currencies also sent the Australian and New Zealand dollars tumbling. Wednesday morning, the euro was at $1.2956 from $1.3089 late Tuesday, according to EBS via CQG. The dollar was at 84.93 yen from 85.35 86 yen, while the euro was at 110.21 yen from 112.37 yen. The pound was at $1.5700 from $1.5740. The dollar was at 1.0529 Swiss francs from 1.0586 francs. The ICE Dollar Index, which tracks the greenback against a trade-weighted basket of currencies, was at 81.821, an intraday high and up about 1.3% from 80.762. The exchange rate between the dollar and yen is sensitive to comparative interest-rate expectations for the U.S. and Japan. With U.S. two-year Treasury yields at record lows following the announcement from the Federal Open Market Committee, currency investors have little incentive to buy the dollar when the yen is perceived to offer more safety. Fears about the global recovery fueled by soft data out of China sent investors to traditional safe harbors Wednesday. China's July retail sales and industrial-production data pointed to continued growth in the country, but fell short of expectations. "Since Friday's disappointing [U.S.] employment report, but driven home over the past 24 hours, investors have become more concerned about the trajectory of the world economy," wrote analysts at Brown Brothers Harriman in a research note. Sterling stumbled after the Bank of England cut its forecasts for U.K. economic growth and long-term inflation in its quarterly Inflation Report, falling below $1.57 against the dollar for the first time in August. The Canadian dollar gave back its post-FOMC gains and hit a 19-day low against the U.S. dollar early Wednesday as investors reconsidered the Federal Reserve's announcement. The U.S. dollar was at C$1.0419 Wednesday morning, from C$1.0376 late Tuesday. The Canadian dollar edged lower after Canada's worse-than-expected merchandise trade balance data for June, which showed a trade deficit of C$1.13 billion. The market was calling for a deficit of C$300 million. Traders said the U.S. dollar's push through the C$1.0400 level was largely triggered by stop-loss orders. "The Canadian numbers didn't necessarily have a game-breaking feel to them, largely because we are insensitive overall to the trade numbers. We look to the broader market theme, and the broader market theme is one of caution," said David Watt, senior currency strategist at RBC Capital Markets in Toronto. That theme, he said, has been playing out in Canada for the past several weeks. The expansion of the U.S. trade gap in June didn't rile the greenback, as investors are accustomed to huge U.S. trade shortfalls. The U.S. trade deficit widened unexpectedly to a record 21-month high in June, as imports from its largest trading partners ballooned. The shortfall in international trade of goods and services surged 19% to $49.9 billion, the Commerce Dept said. The deficit in May was revised down to $41.98 billion from an initial estimate of $42.27 billion. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones Newswires had expected the deficit to expand to $42.7 billion in June. However, the U.S. trade gap with China expanded to $26.15 billion in June, the widest level since October 2008 and a 17% expansion on the previous month's bilateral deficit of $22.28 billion. Earlier this week, China's trade surplus ballooned far above market expectations, hitting $28.7 billion as exports grew faster than imports. The figures are likely to continue to give ammunition to federal lawmakers pressuring the Obama administration to take China to task on its currency policy. Although China earlier this year announced a move to a more flexible exchange rate, lawmakers say the yuan is still artificially low, undermining U.S. competitiveness.
Yen hits 15-year high as Japan ponders move By Vivianne Rodrigues NEW YORK (Reuters) - The yen rose to a 15-year high against the dollar and a nine-year peak versus the euro on Tuesday amid fears the global economy is slowing, testing Japanese authorities' resolve to stem the currency's climb. The yen's rise accelerated as stop-loss sales were triggered in euro/yen at around 107 yen, while traders cited macro hedge-fund selling of the euro against the dollar. Weaker stock markets helped buoy the yen on the crosses while narrowing differentials between U.S. Treasuries and Japanese government bond yields dragged the dollar down against the yen. Japanese Finance Minister Yoshihiko Noda declined to comment on the chance of currency intervention, saying only that recent currency moves were one-sided and disorderly moves could harm the stability of the economy and financial system. Traders took those comments as a sign the authorities were not yet ready to act to curb yen strength. "Unless the Japanese step in with something more definitive, we will see speculative accounts drive the dollar/yen down to 80 yen," said Paul Robson, RBS Global Banking currency strategist. "The 85 yen level was pretty important and now with that gone, dollar/yen falling to 80 is a real possibility. That will hurt the Japanese economy pretty hard, unless they do something more on the fiscal side or resort to more quantitative easing." The greenback struck a 15-year low of 83.72 yen on EBS before inching back up to 84.02 yen in New York trading, but was still down 1.3 percent on the day. "The Bank of Japan missed some good opportunities to try to put a stop on the yen's rise. But now, with the worsening of the prospects for a global economic recovery, demand for the currency will just keep getting higher," said Joe Manimbo, a currency trader at Travelex Global Business Payments, in Washington D.C. The euro fell to 105.44 yen, its lowest since November 2001, having dropped past support at around 107.27 yen, the low hit in June. It was last at 106.37 yen, down 1.2 percent on the day. Technical analysts say the euro could be poised for a fall toward 105.00 yen, with interim support seen at 105.50 yen, around the low reached in September 2001. The 105.00 yen level, where Japanese authorities were reported to have intervened in November 1999, was also seen providing support. The euro also fell to a six-week low against the dollar of $1.2602, opening the way to a fall toward $1.2522 and then $1.2479, which are daily lows from July. JAPANESE AUTHORITIES Traders said the chances Japanese authorities would take fresh measures in the coming weeks to stem the yen's rise had increased, particularly as the dollar approaches 80 yen. Sources said the yen's surge on Tuesday had somewhat increased the previously negligible chances the Bank of Japan will ease monetary policy before its rate review next month. Prime Minister Naoto Kan and Bank of Japan Governor Masaaki Shirakawa discussed the yen by phone on Monday, but Kan did not ask the central bank to ease monetary policy further, and the two did not touch on currency intervention. "Japanese policymakers will be desperate to prevent a break in dollar/yen down to 80 but that looks the trend," Chris Turner, head of fx strategy at ING, said in a note.
Dollar/yen drops to 15-year low at 83.34 yen
SCHWACHER DOLLAR: Der Dollar ist erstmals seit November 2009 unter einen Franken gefallen. Die US-Währung tauchte um 10.00 Uhr vorübergehend auf 0.9996 Franken. Ausgelöst wurde der Kursrutsch von schwachen Notierungen an den Aktienmärkten. Zudem spekulierten Anleger am Devisenmarkt auf Zinserhöhungen der Schweizerischen Nationalbank (SNB) Anfang nächsten Jahres. Händlern zufolge setzten Investoren darauf, dass die SNB schneller von der Nullzinspolitik ablassen wird als die US-Notenbank. Dementsprechend positionierten sie sich auf einen steigenden Schweizer Franken. Erstmals war der Dollar am 14. März 2008 unter die Parität zum Franken gefallen. Der bisher tiefste je gesehene Kurs wurde drei Tage danach bei 0.9631 Fr. notiert. Danach fiel er Ende November 2009 zum zweiten Mal unter die Parität zum Franken, allerdings weniger tief: Damals kostete der Dollar kurze Zeit 0.9995 Franken.
Een dollar die voor 82,88 yen van eigenaar verwisselde, was de druppel die gisteren de Japanse emmer deed overlopen. De regering besliste yens te verkopen om de nationale munt te verzwakken. Dat moet de exportgerichte economie ondersteunen. Maar Tokio koopt enkel tijd. De ingreep die de Japanse minister van Financiën Yoshihiko Noda toelichtte, duwde de yen ruim 3 procent lager tegenover de dollar. Nadat de yen gisteren voor het eerst in meer dan 15 jaar opnieuw de wisselkoers van 82,88 yen voor een dollar had bereikt, vond de Japanse regering het welletjes. Zes jaar lang weigerde ze in te grijpen in de valutamarkten, maar nu gooide ze er volgens officieuze schattingen 300 tot 500 miljard yen (2,7 tot 4,5 miljard euro) tegenaan om de yen naar een lagere wisselkoers te sturen. Premier Naoto Kan, die dinsdag werd herverkozen aan het hoofd van de regerende Democratische Partij, stond onder druk om in te grijpen. Japanse bedrijfsleiders klagen al geruime tijd over een verlies aan concurrentiekracht. Zij ontvangen daardoor minder yens voor producten die in het buitenland worden verkocht. Bovendien belemmert de dure yen de afzet op de Chinese markt, aangezien Peking zijn yuan grotendeels aan de dollar vastkoppelt. Verrassender dan de ingreep van de regering is de timing ervan. Kan kwam pas gisteren als overwinnaar uit een interne machtsstrijd voor het leiderschap van de regeringspartij DPJ. Kans grote tegenstander, Ichiro Ozawa, profileerde zich tijdens de campagne als een fervent voorstander van interventies om de steeds duurdere yen een halt toe te roepen. De premier leek daar minder op gebrand. ‘Ook Kan was een voorstander van een ingreep’, nuanceert Emmanuel Hermand, chef Aziatische aandelen van het beurshuis Nomura in Parijs. ‘Ozawa was gewoon sterker in zijn bewoordingen.’ Pijngrens Het lijkt wat vreemd dat Kan de wisselkoersinterventie niet heeft doorgevoerd tijdens de campagne. Dat had zijn populariteit ongetwijfeld een boost gegeven. ‘Ook wij hadden daarop gerekend’, geeft Hermand toe. ‘Het had Naoto Kan de kans geboden zijn achterban te tonen dat hij nog steeds de beste man is om het land te leiden’. Hermand begrijpt wel waarom Kan uiteindelijk het einde van de campagne heeft afgewacht. ‘De laatste weken werd steeds duidelijker dat hij ging winnen. Door te wachten tot na zijn herverkiezing is zijn beslissing geloofwaardiger. Anders had hij de kritiek gekregen dat hij enkel handelde om te winnen.’ Een andere reden is dat de yen in de buurt was beland van wat voor de beleidsmakers blijkbaar de ‘pijngrens’ is van 82 yen voor een dollar. ‘Ik bekijk de interventie vooral als een signaal aan de markt dat er een niveau is dat de yen niet mag passeren’, zegt Hermand, die er niet van overtuigd is dat de yen te duur is. ‘Wat wel vast staat is dat de munt de laatste maanden veel te snel geappre- cieerd is. Halfweg 2007 was het nog 123 yen voor een dollar. Nu staat die wisselkoers op 85 yen.’ ‘Er bestaat een internationale bereidheid om het tempo van de yenappreciatie af te remmen’, zei Peter Wuyts, valutaspecialist van KBC op Tijd.tv. ‘Maar het is natuurlijk niet de bedoeling dat Japan voor een forse verzwakking van de yen zou gaan. Japan is nog steeds een land met een overschot op de lopende rekening. Het zou zijn economie meer moeten richten op de binnenlandse vraag en minder op de export.’ ‘Deze interventie zal snel verdampen als de Europese, en vooral de Amerikaanse economie niet snel weer de draad oppikken’, waarschuwt Hermand. ‘Histo- risch gezien is het effect van een dergelijke tussenkomst na 40 dagen verdwenen. Als de situatie tegen dan niet wezenlijk veranderd is, zullen er opnieuw interventies nodig zijn.’ Critici menen dat China de Japanse tussenkomst zal aangrijpen als verdediging voor zijn eigen muntbeleid. De VS eisen al geruime tijd dat Peking de koppeling van de yuan aan de dollar loslaat. ‘Ik geloof niet in de kracht van een Chinese ‘zij doen het ook’-uitspraak’, zegt Hermand. ‘Je kan een lichte bijsturing niet vergelijken met de grote onderwaardering van de yuan tegenover de dollar.’ Koopkracht Een sterke munt is niet noodzakelijk een vloek voor de Japanse economie. Hermand: ‘Vergelijk het met Duitsland in het begin van het decennium. Een dure munt zorgt voor constante druk op de bedrijven om efficiënter te werken en toekomstgerichte herstructureringen door te voeren.’ Een ander pluspunt is dat de Japanse bedrijven op een hoop cash zitten die door de appreciatie van de yen extra koopkracht oplevert. Dit jaar hebben ze al voor 20,8 miljard euro buitenlandse overnames gedaan, meer dan in heel 2009.
On Tuesday the yen traded at ¥82.88 yen per dollar, its highest level since May 1995. As predicted the Japanese government decided it had seen enough and instructed the Bank of Japan (BOJ) to 'intervene in the currency market' (aka print money). This caused the yen to quickly fall back to ¥85 per U.S. dollar level. The BOJ also confirmed that its intervention -- reported to be in the ¥300-¥500 billion range ($3.61-$6.02 billion) -- will go unsterilized, which means that the BOJ will not seek to withdraw the new yen it has 'printed'. Currency Traders Now Have an ¥82 Yen Bullseye Via Bloomberg, Japan’s Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshito Sengoku communicated two very important pieces of information: 1.¥82 yen per dollar is "the line of defense to prevent currency strength from harming the economy" 2."The government is seeking to gain the understanding of the U.S. and Europe for the intervention" We now know the Japanese government's pain point (¥82 yen per dollar). Providing the market with an exact target -- not unprecedented for Japan (see below) -- could prove to be a mistake. We can also infer from the "seeking to gain the understanding" comment that the BOJ's intervention was not only uncoordinated, but also without the consent of other central banks. It would be surprising if the Fed and ECB signed off on the BOJ's intervention. Europe, the U.S. and other nations are mired in a slow recovery and seeking export led growth. Japan's currency intervention makes U.S. and European goods more expensive in Japan. What Happened Last Time the BOJ Intervened? It was six years ago when the Bank of Japan last intervened in the currency market. In 15 months through March 2004, the BOJ sold ¥35 trillion yen ($421.7 billion) for dollars. What was the BOJ trying to accomplish? As noted back then Economy Trade and Industry Minister Takeo Hiranuma said "a dollar at ¥115.00 is the ultimate life-and-death line for Japanese exporters". Two comments: 1.Since then the yen has increased by 35% in value relative to the U.S. dollar and this hasn't let to the "death" of Japan's export economy 2.Even after a year year+ long intervention effort the Bank of Japan ultimately failed to stem a substantial appreciation of the yen. Yen bulls may take some comfort in this history. However, currency investors should also be aware that the Bank of Japan is generally considered to be a worthier opponent than other central banks which have recently failed to halt a rise in their currencies. What Happens Next? Currencies trade relative to each other, so any assessment of the Bank of Japan's intervention cannot be viewed in a vacuum. Trade Sanctions Because it appears BOJ intervention occurred without the support and/or approval of other central banks it's uncertain whether a) there will be a response by other governments and b) what form that response would take. While the Swiss National Bank may have another go, a widespread tit-for-tat currency intervention by central banks seems unlikely. However, trade sanctions may be an option, although not necessarily against Japan. Prior to the BOJ intervention China had been driving up the value of the yen by purchasing Japanese government bonds. Some have commented on how this was a roundabout strategy by China to trigger more dollar purchases (by the Japanese through today's intervention), which strengthens the dollar and thereby keeps China's currency undervalued (the Chinese yuan is effectively pegged to the dollar). By having the Japanese do its dollar purchasing, China may be hoping to avoid being charged by Congress as a "currency manipulator" (which may be imminent). I've written previously about a possible U.S.: China economic war. Bottom line: with mid-term elections right around the corner expect more trade sanction rhetoric, and probably action. Reserve Currencies Other big news on Tuesday was further speculation about imminent Fed quantitative easing (QE 2.0) to the tune of $1 trillion. News that the Fed may print another trillion dollars helped drive the yen's appreciation to ¥82.88 versus the dollar. The euro also rallied today, crossing the $1.30 level. QE 2.0 would put serious pressure on the value of the U.S. dollar.
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