Aandeel TomTom AEX:TOM2.NL, NL0013332471

quote:

Hoop.... schreef op 25 februari 2016 15:20:

Who is wie bij dit rapport...

quote:

Happy Chappy schreef op 25 februari 2016 15:12:

nieuw rapport uit vanochtend

price euro 7,80
target ( 12 month - gebruikelijke uitloop periode tot 6 maand) euro 15,50
forecast tot return 98%

" we reiterate our BUY rating and 15,50 euro TP as the 4Q15/FY15 strenght in order intake supports our investment case.
we believe the market is too focused on the short-term noise while disregarding the med-to LT upside in earnings driven by def rev and embedded surge in Automotive rev translating from the strong order intake in 2014/15

TT is gaining mkt share in maps with a win ratio currently in the 35/40% mkt share range which fits our stand-alone scenario in which we see 100% upside potential in the share price.
we also note that we gained further confidence that TT will become a more signifcant player in the future automotive nav space due to ist unique map making platform

ignore the 2016 guidance and look beyond to see the operational leverage from an improving mix and def rev context

the key positive that supports our investment case is the strong order intake, TT thus gained market share from Here, which confirms to us the competitiveness of the map and especially the map-making platform

en dan een bende cijfers forecast and ratios

licensing had a strong 4Q and showed a 24% YoY rev growth driven by the renewal and scope of existing contracts, the addition of new customers as well as a good proces made in Geospatial segment ( note the UBER deal)

Telematics

19% YoY increase
the recurring saas rev 22% higher than same period last year
strongly driven by growth subscriber base

cijfers voor capex en opex ...zoals bekend

conclusie
- strong order book Automotive and def rev seem highly undervalued
- 2016 NO reflection of LT earnings potential
- operational leverage to surge beyond 2016

BUY TP 15,50

boter bij de vis, want ze zijn vandaag Koper voor portfolio managers en nemen het mee in beleggingsmandjes.

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Dinah-Moe Tomm schreef op 25 februari 2016 19:09:

[...]
Dat komt dan redelijk overeen met mijn grossmeisterfingerspitzengefuhl dat voor december een koers tussen de 15 en 20 voorziet.

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Tom3 schreef op 21 april 2016 21:20:

Op 19 april 2016 herhaalt ING haar koersdoel van een half jaar geleden: Euro 15,5. Haar advies luidt: KOPEN

www.guruwatch.nl/advies/89815/TomTom/...

Dit was er bij alle gedoe rond de kwartaalcijfers even onder gesneeuwd. Ik beschouw ING toch wel als de leading bank in Nederland. Ze hebben geen verborgen agenda zoals de yanks en de Britten.

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Slainte schreef op 21 april 2016 22:04:

[...]

Nee, zijn goudeerlijke jongens bij de ING.

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Tom3 schreef op 21 april 2016 22:07:

Op 21 april 2016 wordt het ING advies herhaald. Ze zijn echt de bank met de hoogste waarderingen voor Tom2:
corporate.tomtom.com/analysts.cfm?his...

Let er op dat een jaar geleden haar koersdoel slechts 8,50 bedroeg!

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Hoopmazzel schreef op 21 april 2016 22:43:

[...]

Mooi zo!.

De helft van het koersdoel is al bereikt.

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[verwijderd schreef:

id=9163237 date=201602101512]

we moeten nooit alleen de positieve kant bekijken en ook de anderen aanhoren

hier dus de 3 naysayers , waarvan 1 neutraal ( koersdoel 8,50 ) en 2 met een sell aanbeveling ( koersdoel 7 en 6,75 respectievelijk )

dit is de leidraad zo'n beetje voor indruk qua feedback uit de CC

- main take-away: Management clearly intends to continue spending in order to get as much license/automotive business in the years ahead.
Capex and Opex growth in 2016 is significant and should gradually slowdown in 2017 and beyond, but the company refrained from quantifying.
No news that would change our current sell-rating

- Revenue mix outlook/ Consumer flattish, Auto/licensing high 1O% for growth, Telematics mid 20% for growth ( Finder adds ca 10m in 2016)

- Investing R&D in 2016, see operating leverage in future when revenue growth kicks in, expect maps making to become more automated in the future and get the full benefits from productivity improvement in 2017

- the Automotive 300m euro backlog will primarily start shipping from 2017, and a bit in 2016.
In the mix the maps are the biggest component, followed by traffic and then navigation

- net def rev to be expected lower for 2016, driven by automotive

- spending on map platform opex to rise 8/9% , driven by Telematics growth - are investing in geographical reach and new customer product adaptations .
Capex will need to continue for maps, OPEX growth beyond 2016 should level off.

- Automotive built-in sat nav take rates are 27% and gradually growing next 3 - 4 years

- Now have an estimated 80% market share in traffic data service in Europe

- Capex in 2015 was euro 107m , expect euro 130m in 2016

dan heeft één nog een trading advies van de desk

" TT the stock is for now damaged goods, it will not recover rapidly after the big sell-off , a relief-rally is for now an opportunity to sell

the stock will need to do some work to restore confidence "

dit laatste zal ook zeker voor nu wel zo zijn, het aandeel moet mi ook weer vertrouwen opbouwen bij de belegger, het heeft een nekschot gehad en is te ver doorgezakt, daar zit een penalty op - spijtig genoeg.
maar ik zie TT toch ook wel weer aan de 10 noteren over tijd.

succes

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potpourri schreef op 10 augustus 2016 09:24:

[...]

de analist te volgen is MdD ondanks zijn straffe koersdoel-verlagingen is hij de man in de hot-spot , hij heeft toegang tot de top van TT , zie ook zijn gesprek verleden week na de sale van Fleetmatics met de CFO van TT.

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Koos99 schreef op 10 augustus 2016 11:54:

[...]

Ik heb vorige week wel een update van MdD zien langskomen, maar daar kon ik op geen enkele manier uit opmaken dat hij contact heeft gehad met de CFO. Is daar, voor zover bij iemand bekend, nog iets interessants gemeld?

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potpourri schreef op 5 september 2016 09:34:

upped estimates - upped price target

" we are upping our price target to 10 euro based on updated estimates, now inclucing the announcements made after the 2Q16 results release, new products announced as well as expected new contracts from the Paris Autoshow

we hv updated our model , now incorporating the PSA/TT fleet management cooperation, the TT/Sage cooperation
we also include 2 new Automotive contracts in our model, something we hv not done before, TT has clearly indicated that it will give the market an update on order intake at the Paris show ( or abt)

the main impact is therefore on our DCF based price target which moves from 9 to 10 euro.

our investment case remains unchanged which is based on increasing operating leverage due to growth in automotive and telematics with consumer remaining the cash cow
near term higher capex and opex limits OCF improvements but with automotive moving fast towards ADAS, semi autonmous and eventually autonomous vehicles and Telematics continuing to grow and make bolt on acquisitions, fast improving FCF is not a matter of if, but only of when.

buy - target 10 euro

OK, dit is de man in de sweet-spot en die kan t weten.

quote:

potpourri schreef op 5 september 2016 09:34:

upped estimates - upped price target

" we are upping our price target to 10 euro based on updated estimates, now inclucing the announcements made after the 2Q16 results release, new products announced as well as expected new contracts from the Paris Autoshow

we hv updated our model , now incorporating the PSA/TT fleet management cooperation, the TT/Sage cooperation
we also include 2 new Automotive contracts in our model, something we hv not done before, TT has clearly indicated that it will give the market an update on order intake at the Paris show ( or abt)

the main impact is therefore on our DCF based price target which moves from 9 to 10 euro.

our investment case remains unchanged which is based on increasing operating leverage due to growth in automotive and telematics with consumer remaining the cash cow
near term higher capex and opex limits OCF improvements but with automotive moving fast towards ADAS, semi autonmous and eventually autonomous vehicles and Telematics continuing to grow and make bolt on acquisitions, fast improving FCF is not a matter of if, but only of when.

buy - target 10 euro

OK, dit is de man in de sweet-spot en die kan t weten.

quote:

potpourri schreef op 5 september 2016 09:34:

upped estimates - upped price target

" we are upping our price target to 10 euro based on updated estimates, now inclucing the announcements made after the 2Q16 results release, new products announced as well as expected new contracts from the Paris Autoshow

we hv updated our model , now incorporating the PSA/TT fleet management cooperation, the TT/Sage cooperation
we also include 2 new Automotive contracts in our model, something we hv not done before, TT has clearly indicated that it will give the market an update on order intake at the Paris show ( or abt)

the main impact is therefore on our DCF based price target which moves from 9 to 10 euro.

our investment case remains unchanged which is based on increasing operating leverage due to growth in automotive and telematics with consumer remaining the cash cow
near term higher capex and opex limits OCF improvements but with automotive moving fast towards ADAS, semi autonmous and eventually autonomous vehicles and Telematics continuing to grow and make bolt on acquisitions, fast improving FCF is not a matter of if, but only of when.

buy - target 10 euro

OK, dit is de man in de sweet-spot en die kan t weten.

quote:

tomtommer schreef op 5 september 2016 14:15:

[...]

Ik twijfelde daar nog even aan wies, maar denk dat je dat prima hebt gezien. Den drijver is de man in de sweet-spot. Bedankt voor het delen........ab.