Apokathilosis schreef op 28 november 2011 10:30:
With the MT cycle turn date on Nov 25 or Nov 28, I conclude the potential crash with the plunge from 1264 to 1158. In the mean time, I issue a Medium term bullish forecast from here.
Even though I issued a potential crash report on Nov 15 at $spx 1264, and having an advantage of market plunge of 108 $spx points, but I still have not relinquish the Intermediate term bullish call which initiated at $spx 1101 on Aug 9 bottom. Currently this Intermediate bullish call still at the status of “never changed and never doubted”, but is currently under review, and the picture could be clear in the near term.
Last Friday’s market close update of following short term statement was wrong. “Potential of next Monday market plunge is extremely high”.
What I did not take into consideration was the Medium term turn cycle and the $VIX bearish Harami pattern, and also the time was too extended as the potential crash time was supposed to be on Nov 23 or Nov 25 with the potential crash roadmap.
With swan 2-side blade system, often market turn to huge rally if a potential crash failed to realize.
So far Nov 15 (@$spx 1264 high) projected Potential Crash has an advantage of 108 $spx points profits with Friday Nov 25 $spx closed at 1158. Originally when $spx was at 1264 high, I were looking for level one potential crash with target of 1130 ~ 1140.
$spx has plunged 108 points in the last 7 trading days. Here likely is the conclusion of the potential crash call. Instead of a crash, market concluded with a deep plunge.
Conclusie: draai naar long, for the time being.