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Alibaba

537 Posts
Pagina: «« 1 ... 17 18 19 20 21 ... 27 »» | Laatste | Omlaag ↓
  5. BeerBen 4 februari 2022 10:47
    Ik ga vandaag nog wat inslaan om die GAK van 180 wat naar beneden te halen. Amzn had prachtige cijfers en ik verwacht van Baba hetzelfde. Daarnaast is het nu wat rustiger omtrent delisting en overheidsbeperkingen.. Geen garanties wat die twee betreft, kan morgen weer anders zijn. Maar fundamenteel is het gewoon een goed bedrijf.
  6. forum rang 6 RJ 80 4 februari 2022 10:52
    Laatst ook gedaan, eerste posities rond 220 gekocht. Toen romd 150 nog eens en op 109 een tijdje terug verdubbeld. Positie daarmee uitgebouwd en meer hoef ik even niet. Blijft ergens akelig, heb ook Baidu overigens. Mss gaan die Spelen wel wat doen ;-).

    Vwb cijfers, is vaker onduidelijkheid over . De data die financiele sites noemen van nu begin februari zijn overigens eigen schattingen, niet van alibaba zelf. Daar staat nog geen datum op hun site voor de release. Mss nu wel snel met start OS en einde chinees nieuwjaar? Who knows, kan ook nog een week duren.
  8. BeerBen 4 februari 2022 11:04
    quote:

    RJ 80 schreef op 4 februari 2022 10:52:

    Laatst ook gedaan, eerste posities rond 220 gekocht. Toen romd 150 nog eens en op 109 een tijdje terug verdubbeld. Positie daarmee uitgebouwd en meer hoef ik even niet. Blijft ergens akelig, heb ook Baidu overigens. Mss gaan die Spelen wel wat doen ;-).

    Vwb cijfers, is vaker onduidelijkheid over . De data die financiele sites noemen van nu begin februari zijn overigens eigen schattingen, niet van alibaba zelf. Daar staat nog geen datum op hun site voor de release. Mss nu wel snel met start OS en einde chinees nieuwjaar? Who knows, kan ook nog een week duren.
    Exact zo gedaan, behalve die inkoop bij 109 helaas... Durfde het toen nog niet aan. De komende maanden zal het nog wel een rollercoaster blijven op de beurs. Maar als al het "stof" weer is neer gedwarreld zal Baba weer in de lift naar boven stappen en zullen we weer koersen boven de 200 gaan zien. Dat zal niet dit jaar zijn vermoed ik, maar 2023 moet haalbaar zijn.
  10. forum rang 9 nine_inch_nerd 4 februari 2022 16:06
    ^^ ook al bijna een maand oud
    -lol- grapje

    Ik zag net dit:
    www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/00015...

    Wilde dit al delen. Moet zelf ook nog lezen en me hierin verdiepen. Discussiestof misschien.

    Explanatory Note

    This Registration Statement on Form F-6 is being filed and the ADSs are being registered in order to accommodate the issuance of additional ADSs upon the deposit of ordinary shares, including deposits of the Company’s ordinary shares that are listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange.

    American Depositary Shares (ADS(s)), each ADS representing the right to receive eight (8) ordinary shares of Alibaba Group Holding Limited (the “Company”)
    1,000,000,000 ADSs à $5.00

    Extra aandeeluitgifte (units) (unit = 8 aandelen)?
  11. forum rang 6 RJ 80 4 februari 2022 16:21
    quote:

    BeerBen schreef op 4 februari 2022 11:04:

    [...]

    Exact zo gedaan, behalve die inkoop bij 109 helaas... Durfde het toen nog niet aan. De komende maanden zal het nog wel een rollercoaster blijven op de beurs. Maar als al het "stof" weer is neer gedwarreld zal Baba weer in de lift naar boven stappen en zullen we weer koersen boven de 200 gaan zien. Dat zal niet dit jaar zijn vermoed ik, maar 2023 moet haalbaar zijn.
    Ach ja, ik probeer er geen tijdstip op te plakken. Heb sowieso nog ruim 20 jaar voor ik met pensioen zal willen en zie dit wel als een lange termijn belegging. Delisting vind ik nog het minste risico overigens, krijg je de aandelen in hongkong weer terug. Groter risico vind ik de sancties van regering en druk op ant group. Als die druk minder wordt dan gaat de rest wel vanzelf. Proberen niet naar om te kijken ;-)
  12. forum rang 9 nine_inch_nerd 4 februari 2022 16:31
    quote:

    nine_inch_nerd schreef op 4 februari 2022 16:06:

    ......

    Ik zag net dit:
    www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/00015...

    Discussiestof misschien.

    Explanatory Note

    This Registration Statement on Form F-6 is being filed and the ADSs are being registered in order to accommodate the issuance of additional ADSs upon the deposit of ordinary shares, including deposits of the Company’s ordinary shares that are listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange.

    American Depositary Shares (ADS(s)), each ADS representing the right to receive eight (8) ordinary shares of Alibaba Group Holding Limited (the “Company”)
    1,000,000,000 ADSs à $5.00

    Extra aandeeluitgifte (units) (unit = 8 aandelen)?

    Edit: creëren van extra ADR aandelen. 1 unit ADR geeft recht op 8 aandelen HK?
    1 miljard ADR aandelen..
    Delusion?
  13. forum rang 9 nine_inch_nerd 4 februari 2022 22:08
    Klinkt niet verkeerd.

    seekingalpha.com/article/4484297-alib...

    Alibaba: Set To Crush Expectations
    The Asian Investor

    The next earnings sheet for Chinese e-commerce company Alibaba (BABA) will be due soon (expected for February, no date has been announced yet) and the firm could do much better than expected. After a year of devastating news - ranging from billion dollar fines for allegedly anti-competitive behavior to the disappearance of company founder Jack Ma - 2022 could be a much better year for Alibaba. The e-commerce company could deliver a material EPS beat for Q3'22 and better than expected free cash flow!

    Beijing's softening policy stance, low EPS expectations and downtrend in EPS revisions

    Alibaba is heading into earnings season with one big advantage: Investors have very low expectations. The e-commerce firm has been subjected to new rules and regulations last year as the CCP made a bid to strengthen its anti-monopoly framework. However, the crackdown on monopolistic enterprises and large technology conglomerates has noticeably slowed down in recent months, suggesting that Beijing is pulling back. While China cracked down hard on multiple industries in 2021 - including financial institutions that offered cryptocurrency investment services, ride-hailing companies and e-commerce businesses - 2022 could be a major reset year for Alibaba.

    Heading into earnings, expectations for Alibaba are very low. In part, this is deserved. Growing political risk has driven a major revaluation of Alibaba's commercial growth prospects last year. While the market was concerned about Beijing forcing Alibaba to delist its ADRs in 2021, almost nobody is discussing this possibility anymore. Chinese authorities actually took heat off of Chinese companies at the end of last year when they approved offshore VIE listings under strict rules.

    Beijing's change in attitude towards China's largest companies indicates a softer policy approach and Alibaba could report much better earnings and free cash flow because of it. For the December quarter, the expectation is for Alibaba to have earnings of $2.55 per share (implying a 25.3% year over year decrease) and revenues of $38.8B. For the full-year, Alibaba is expected to generate 20-23% revenue growth, as per company guidance, which would result in total FY 2022 revenues of $135.9B. I believe Alibaba may even be able to outperform its own guidance based on accelerating e-commerce momentum. Earnings expectations are very low and there is a defined down-trend in EPS revisions.

    I am especially optimistic about Alibaba's near term free cash flow prospects which are lightened up by growing momentum in Alibaba's operations in Southeast Asia. The e-commerce market in Southeast Asia is growing even faster than the Chinese e-commerce market, which gives Alibaba a massive opportunity for expansion. Alibaba currently generates about three-quarters of its revenues from China's retail and wholesale businesses which translates to 131B Chinese Yuan or $20.6B in domestically-sourced revenues. Growing penetration in markets like Malaysia, Thailand and Indonesia, however, indicates strong potential for free cash flow growth in international markets.

    Alibaba will depend on the domestic market for free cash flow growth for a long time, but going forward the international market is going to become much more important for Alibaba. Additionally, Alibaba is developing its logistics business Cainiao which provides an opportunity for the firm to improve shipping times. Cainiao is building global smart logistics infrastructure in major cities in the world, adding warehouse space and deploying state-of-the-art technology for last-mile deliveries. Alibaba's e-commerce target markets give Cainiao access to 1.2B consumers which is about 4.2 X larger than Alibaba's current active customer base of 285M. The international e-commerce segment added 78M new accounts to Alibaba's business in the September quarter and includes brands like Lazada for Southeast Asia, daraz for Pakistan and trendyol for Turkey. Cainiao is already handling more than 60M parcels daily and the firm could become one of the big logistics players in the world, next to DHL, UPS or FedEx, in the next five years.

    Alibaba e-Commerce
    Alibaba
    Alibaba's vertical integration into logistic infrastructure creates an opening for massive free cash flow growth in the future. Free cash flow is already very strong at Alibaba and driven chiefly by the firm's e-commerce operations. In the first six months of FY 2022, Alibaba's businesses generated 42.9B Chinese Yuan in free cash flow which calculates to $6.7B. Alibaba could generate free cash flow between 90B and 100B Chinese Yuan in FY 2022 which calculates to $14B to $16B. Assuming Alibaba's free cash flow margins remain stable and around 10-12% in the foreseeable future, Alibaba could add between $2.5B and $3.0B in free cash flow on top of that, annually, moving forward. Applying a free cash flow margin of 12% to Alibaba's expected revenues of $158.7B in FY 2023, and the firm could see up to $19B in free cash flow next year.

    Alibaba Free cash flow
    Alibaba
    The increase in free cash flow does not seem to be priced into the valuation of Alibaba right now. Because Alibaba went through a large drop in pricing in FY 2021, the lowered market capitalization of $333B implies a P-FCF ratio of 17.5X.

    Risks with Alibaba

    I believe the risk analysis has changed quite a bit in recent months and political risks have decreased. Regulators now appear to take a softer stance on overseas stock listings which implies improving commercial growth prospects for Alibaba's core business. Macro risks are still present and Alibaba is subjected to political risks, but I believe an ADR delisting is now highly unlikely. What would change my mind about Alibaba is if the company reported materially weaker EPS and free cash flow for the third-quarter, or lowered its revenue outlook for the current fiscal year.

    Final thoughts

    As Beijing pulls back from cracking down on its leading technology and e-commerce companies, there is an opportunity for a major re-pricing of Alibaba's free cash flow growth prospects. Alibaba's logistics business especially presents a huge opportunity for growth. I also believe that Alibaba is in a great position to beat EPS predictions for the third-quarter, in part because expectations have been driven so low. 2022 could be a major reset year for Alibaba and the market may see a significant upwards revaluation of Alibaba's shares as free cash flow continues to ramp up!
  16. forum rang 9 nine_inch_nerd 5 februari 2022 13:15
    Wat is jullie mening over het beschikbaar stellen van extra aandelen op de US markt in ruil voor de HongKong aandelen?
    Dit zegt toch ook heel veel hoe men 'in de wedstrijd zit' vwb BaBa op NYSE. Delisting is dus helemaal 'out of the question', dan.
    Maar wat zal extra BaBa aandelen op NYSE betekenen voor de koers daar?
  17. forum rang 9 nine_inch_nerd 5 februari 2022 14:13
    Vond dit net: maakt veel duidelijk!

    Alibaba: The 1 Billion Share Registration Isn't Dilution
    Feb. 05, 2022 12:37 AM ET

    Summary

    An F-6EF form has been filed on Alibaba.
    The form is for an additional 1 billion ADRs, which is a very relevant number.
    I saw some concern this could represent dilution, hence this article clearing things up.

    seekingalpha.com/article/4484611-alib...
  18. forum rang 9 nine_inch_nerd 5 februari 2022 23:21
    Alibaba: All Eyes On Earnings

    Alibaba is set to release its fiscal Q3 earnings this month.
    This will be the first December quarter release from the company since the start of China's regulatory crackdown.
    It is a crucially important report because it will show whether BABA can keep up its high historical growth in a tougher regulatory and macro environment.
    In this article I will argue that the Q3 release is likely to be in-line with analyst estimates.
    seekingalpha.com/article/4484418-alib...
  19. forum rang 9 nine_inch_nerd 5 februari 2022 23:25
    Is Alibaba Stock A Buy Or Sell At Its Current Valuation?

    Summary

    It has become cliché to say that the share price of BABA has been falling due to the changes in China's regulatory environment.
    I suggested in mid-December that a 'new' risk hiding in plain sight could bring about a fresh bout of selling of BABA stock.
    More analysts having "capitulated" fearing for the worst about Alibaba Group's earnings potential in the coming year is actually bullish for BABA.
    I highlight several catalysts for Alibaba Group in the months and years ahead.
    Investors appear to have plenty of safety cushion buying BABA at the prevailing price while waiting for the aforementioned stock catalysts to materialize.

    seekingalpha.com/article/4484350-alib...
537 Posts
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