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Kruimeldief schreef op 16 september 2021 09:53 :
We zitten nu pas op het niveau van 2 augustus ongeveer net na de H1-cijfers. Na deze snelle stijging van de afgelopen dagen ben ik toch huiverig om nu nieuwe turbo’s te kopen, want je weet het nooit met OCI. Dat hebben we de afgelopen jaren meermaals gevoeld.
De aandelen houden we uiteraard vast, want echt alle seinen die je maar kan bedenken staan op groen.
De azijn is uitverkocht.
de schaatser schreef op 15 september 2021 18:13 :
IEX premium geeft vanmiddag een koopadvies voor OCI van 23,50 euro.
Mooi artikel vol lof.
Koersdoel is mager
Het zou leuk wezen, dat we dit vanmiddag al halen.
Krachtige uitbraak! Oci beweegt in een sterk stijgende trend. Oci zet de krachtige uptrend voort. De kansen liggen duidelijk in opwaartse richting nu het patroon van hogere toppen en bodems zich blijft voortzetten. De stijgende trend heeft in eerste instantie ruimte richting weerstand 24,17 (top van 1 augustus 2019). Enkel bij een eventuele terugval onder steun 20,42 (bodem van 9 september) treedt technische verzwakking op.
de schaatser schreef op 16 september 2021 09:57 :
De zienswijze dat de kern inflatie maar tijdelijk is, daar geloof ik niets van.
Voedingsprijzen zullen wereldwijd omhoog gaan. Dus het taperen komt echt wel snel op de agenda.
De vraag is , wat voor invloed kan dat hebben op OCI? heeft iemand hier een mening over?
Taperen, (kern)inflatie en rentestand zijn drie aparte grote dingen die ieder op zich invloed gaan hebben op de beide anderen. We gaan voorzichtig eerst taperen, omdat diverse sectoren het weer beter zelf aankunnen zonder extra steun. Voedselprijzen zullen eerst nog blijven stijgen zonder dat de (kern)inflatie stijgt (afhankelijk van welke van de vijf gangbare verschillende wijzes van meten men hanteert), omdat de inflaterende overheidssubsidies als geheel nog afnemen als tegenhanger. Mocht de inflatie over een langere periode toch (te) snel stijgen, dan pas wordt heel voorzichtig de rentestand in stapjes van enkele tienden verhoogd. Dat zal mijns inziens met de nodige terughoudendheid gebeuren, omdat de wereldeconomie enige inflatie nodig heeft om schulden weg te vreten.
Kruimeldief schreef op 16 september 2021 10:35 :
[...]
Taperen, (kern)inflatie en rentestand zijn drie aparte grote dingen die ieder op zich invloed gaan hebben op de beide anderen.
We gaan voorzichtig eerst taperen, omdat diverse sectoren het weer beter zelf aankunnen zonder extra steun. Voedselprijzen zullen eerst nog blijven stijgen zonder dat de (kern)inflatie stijgt (afhankelijk van welke van de vijf gangbare verschillende wijzes van meten men hanteert), omdat de inflaterende overheidssubsidies als geheel nog afnemen als tegenhanger. Mocht de inflatie over een langere periode toch (te) snel stijgen, dan pas wordt heel voorzichtig de rentestand in stapjes van enkele tienden verhoogd.
Dat zal mijns inziens met de nodige terughoudendheid gebeuren, omdat de wereldeconomie enige inflatie nodig heeft om schulden weg te vreten.
Kijk, dat is tenminste duidelijk Bedankt
effegenoeg schreef op 16 september 2021 10:28 :
Krachtige uitbraak!
Oci beweegt in een sterk stijgende trend.
Oci zet de krachtige uptrend voort. De kansen liggen duidelijk in opwaartse richting nu het patroon van hogere toppen en bodems zich blijft voortzetten. De stijgende trend heeft in eerste instantie ruimte richting weerstand 24,17 (top van 1 augustus 2019). Enkel bij een eventuele terugval onder steun 20,42 (bodem van 9 september) treedt technische verzwakking op.
Er is nog ruimte naar boven. Als ik naar de TA op maandbasis kijk. dan ligt de topzone rond 27/30 , meest recente steunzone op krap 18. Het is wel belangrijk dat de weerstand 23 spoedig opwaarts gepasseerd wordt.
de schaatser schreef op 16 september 2021 09:59 :
[...]
De azijn is uitverkocht.
zowel huishoud- als keukenazijn; azijnpissers worden ivm tekort niet gezocht.
Kunstmestproducent CF Industries gaat twee fabrieken sluiten in Groot-Brittannië www.theguardian.com/business/live/202...
Potver, hoe slecht kun je timen, gisteren alles verkocht wel met een leuke winstje. tjong jonge niet te geloven...
Windmee schreef op 16 september 2021 14:41 :
Potver, hoe slecht kun je timen, gisteren alles verkocht wel met een leuke winstje. tjong jonge niet te geloven...
Gisteren? Wel nog voor 15 uur dan? De signalen ook uit USA waren zo goed dat ik gisteren juist bijkocht.
Nieuwe aanval op de 23! Ondanks die sluitingen gaat CF ook weer door, nu meer dan 1,5%
Had een koers van 30 euro plus al maanden geleden verwacht, moet blijkbaar veel geduld hebben. De verkopers begrijp ik iig niet. Zoveel goed nieuws afgelopen jaar en door nieuwe fabrieken veel capaciteit.
Bloomberg Europe’s Energy Crunch Is Forcing U.K. Factories to Shut Down Elizabeth Elkin and Isis Almeida Thu, September 16, 2021, 11:23 AM In this article: NG=F -2.91% CF +1.86% (Bloomberg) -- Europe’s energy crunch has forced a major fertilizer maker to shut down two U.K. plants, the first sign that a record rally in gas and power prices is threatening to slow the region’s economic recovery. CF Industries Holdings Inc. said Wednesday it’s halting operations at its Billingham and Ince manufacturing complexes due to high natural gas prices, with no estimate for when production will resume. European gas and power futures tumbled Thursday on signs energy-intensive industries are curbing consumption. The move comes as Europe is facing an extreme squeeze for energy supplies, with gas and power prices breaking records day after day. The continent is running out of time to refill storage facilities before the start of the winter as flows from top suppliers Russia and Norway remain limited. There’s also a fight for shipments of liquefied natural gas, with Asia buying up cargoes to meet its own demand. The crisis could have severe economic consequences. Soaring prices are exposing the risk of power outages this winter, according to Goldman Sachs Group Inc. Blackouts would likely send energy prices even higher, compounding concerns about inflation and adding to the rising costs businesses are already shouldering for raw materials. CF has so far taken the most drastic move of companies operating in the region, but others are warning of the likely blow-back. High energy prices are creating “inflationary pressure on every other cost” that will end up being passed on to customers, said Pascal Leroy, senior vice-president of core ingredients at Roquette Freres SA, a food processing company based in northern France. And France’s top sugar producer, Tereos, warned of surging natural gas prices raising production cost for the company “tremendously.” U.K.’s Record-Breaking Energy Crunch Explained in Five Charts Europe’s energy markets are also just the latest example of the toll that soaring commodity prices are having on the global economy. Tight supplies of everything from aluminum to grains to oil have sparked concerns over a lasting run for inflation. Higher costs for heating homes will bite into consumer wallets at a time when they are also paying more food and many are still struggling from the pandemic’s economic fallout. Benchmark natural gas prices in Europe and the U.K. have tripled this year. The crunch worsened on Wednesday after a fire knocked out a key power cable connecting Britain to its top electricity supplier France, boosting gas demand for electricity production within the U.K. Gas prices fell as much as 10% and power prices dropped almost 6% Thursday before paring declines. U.S. Fertilizer Prices Soar as Storms Roil Industry Hub For CF, shutting down these plants, which largely produce ammonium nitrate, will cause the company to lose some production volume, according to Alexis Maxwell, an analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence. The bigger potential impact will likely be on global pricing for fertilizer as concerns grow that other producers will follow suit, she said. “The market will read this as other European producers are likely to shut down, and nitrogen prices will continue to rise on the supply-side shortage,” Maxwell said. Fertilizer prices are already high, and that’s adding to increasing expenses for farmers, who are paying more for everything from land and seeds to equipment. The higher costs of production may mean even more food inflation is on the way. “We wouldn’t be surprised to see more nitrogen and chemicals production across Europe idled in the coming days until gas prices moderate,” Joel Jackson, an analyst at BMO Capital Markets, said in a report.
Nou ik heb nog even snel mijn september optie doorgerold naar december. Ik verwacht dat we tegen die tijd dan wel op die zo vaak genoemde 28 euro staan.
Ik denk dat het essentieel is dat OCI bij Q3 cijfers meer inzicht geeft in afhankelijkheid / impact van stijgingen gasprijs. Als de uitkomst hiervan is dat zij hier veel minder last van hebben dan concurrentie, dan gaat OCI helemaal door het dak….
Morgen dan maar nieuwe aanval op de 23. Vrijdag 17.35. 23.xx?
SHANGHAI, Sept 16 (Reuters) - Chinese urea futures hit record highs on Thursday, boosted by high coal prices and concerns over lower supplies amid a crackdown on high energy consuming projects. Prices of urea, which is used mainly as a fertiliser in agriculture, have more than doubled on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange CURcv1 since the start of the year. They hit their daily price limit of 6% and a record high of 2,667 yuan ($414.01) per tonne on Thursday, surging 13% so far this month. "Major producer provinces such as Inner Mongolia and Shanxi in the northern region have lowered their urea output during the first half of 2021 due to strict environmental regulation," said Fu Tengyu, China urea analyst at IHS Markit. "We expect domestic supply to continue decreasing for the rest of Q4, which could further push up urea prices." China has been cracking down on high-energy consuming projects to reduce carbon emissions and meet climate goals after two-thirds of its provinces and regions failed to meet energy consumption targets in the first half of the year. Its state planner said in new policy guidelines it would toughen punishments for regions that fail to meet targets aimed at controlling energy use. Rising prices of coal, a feedstock to make urea, also contributed to urea's rally. Zhengzhou's thermal coal futures CZCcv1 and coking coal on the Dalian Commodity Exchange DJMcv1 rose to record highs this month as strict supply controls caused difficulties in meeting demand. "Producers' profit margins are definitely squeezed with the surge in coal prices," said Gavin Ju, principal analyst for fertilizers at CRU Group, adding that daily urea production had declined this week. "We expect spot prices of urea will continue to go higher in the next few months ... unless the restricted production of urea is improved significantly or downstream buyers start to resist the increase." Analysts estimate about three quarters of urea produced in China is made with coal, while the rest uses natural gas. Limited gas supplies could also curb future urea output. "Most of the natural gas-based producers are expected to shut down for feedstock shortage during winter, as the government would redirect the natural gas for residential heating," said IHS Markit's Fu. ($1 = 6.4418 Chinese yuan renminbi) China's urea futures rise to record tmsnrt.rs/3AuMvi5 (Reporting by Emily Chow Editing by Mark Potter) ((emily.chow@thomsonreuters.com; +862120830020; Reuters Messaging: emily.chow.thomsonreuters.com@reuters.net )) The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
"We expect spot prices of urea will continue to go higher in the next few months ... unless the restricted production of urea is improved significantly or downstream buyers start to resist the increase." Analysts estimate about three quarters of urea produced in China is made with coal, while the rest uses natural gas. Limited gas supplies could also curb future urea output. "Most of the natural gas-based producers are expected to shut down for feedstock shortage during winter, as the government would redirect the natural gas for residential heating," said IHS Markit's Fu. Als OCI middels Fertiglobe de gasprijzen stukken lager kan houden dan de concurrenten gaan ze zo ontzettend veel winst maken
Urea price momentum likely to continue, says report RIYADH, 1 days ago Urea prices have moved up significantly this month, reaching multi-year highs with multiple drivers at play which are likely to sustain in the medium term, pertaining to supply, demand and cost push factors, a report said. Supply constraints are due to tight supply amid disruptions to US Gulf Coast due to Hurricane Ida while China is focussing lesser on exports for boosting domestic supply, said Al Rajhi Capital, a leading financial services provider in Saudi Arabia, in its report. In terms of demand, India is likely to announce a new tender in the coming weeks, pushing Urea prices higher while the pandemic has resulted in structurally higher food demand, as reflected in rising global food prices (+40% over the past 15 months; source: Food and Agriculture Organization). As for the cost push factor, gas prices and coal prices are rising sharply, driving cost and in turn Urea pricing. There has been a 30% rise in urea prices (US Gulf NOLA Urea) in September so far, but the share price of Sabic Agri-Nutrients is up only by 10%, the report said. “Given the bullish market outlook, we revise our Urea price assumptions and thereby revise our forward-looking estimates,” Al Rajhi Capital added. “Overall, we expect the company to post strong earnings in 2021 (mainly in H2 2021), despite a couple of planned shutdowns. This would result in higher cash flow generation, implying a possibility of higher dividend pay-out. Post revision in our Urea price assumptions and better-than-expected efficiencies improvement in Q2, we raise our TP to SR160 ($42.6)/share (SR115/share earlier) and rating to Overweight (earlier Neutral) on the stock.” – TradeArabia News Service
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