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Home  /  Forum  /  Koffiekamer  /  Alibaba Health Info Tech Ltd

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Alibaba Health Info Tech Ltd

31 Posts
Pagina: «« 1 2 | Laatste | Omlaag ↓
  1. Sub!et 28 mei 2020 21:04
    quote:

    Aquascaper schreef op 28 mei 2020 18:24:

    Dat is een mooie update. Snap de daling niet echt maar mooi momentje om weer een beetje bij te kopen vandaag :-)
    Moederbedrijf Ali Baba ook niet schitterend.
    De rel om Hong Kong is spelbreker !
    Trump die dreigt om Chinese bedrijven te weren van de Amerikaanse beurs is ook niet echt bevordelijk.
    Nochtans doet mijn ander chineeske , Meituan Dianping, het wel goed
  2. Sub!et 10 juni 2020 21:29

    Gisteren een handel van +1,7 mlj aandelen.
    Vreemd voor een aandeel met gem. van 200K

    Meituan - Hit By COVID-19 But The Market Priced In Long-Term Growth Potential
    Jun. 9, 2020 10:13 AM ET Summary
    The impact of COVID-19 was fully reflected in 1Q20 results.

    Structural improvement in food delivery business.

    Despite many positive developments, its valuation is just too rich.

    Improving long-term growth potential post 1Q20 results as structural improvement in food delivery merchant supply implies upside to long-term earnings and growth in the grocery business is encouraging.

    As one of the few Hong Kong SAR-listed large-caps with substantial long-term growth runway, I expect the share to attract more investor interest after it further proves its ability to weather a challenging COVID-19 disruption and maintain food delivery market share despite new competition. As such, I believe the stock will trade more on growth metrics (revenue, user, order, ASP, etc.) and less on profit metrics in the coming quarters.

    Structural improvement in food delivery merchant supply

    Food delivery average order value increased by 14% YoY in 1Q20 due to the introduction of a new high-end restaurant that did not have or had very limited food delivery services. I view this as a structural benefit from the COVID-19 as it allows Meituan to tap into a larger portion of the consumer dining budget.

    This should further diversify and enrich the supplies on the platform and customers are also more willing to pay premium to high quality meals and hygiene guarantee offered by high-end restaurants. Higher ticket size will support the company’s profit margin going forward.

    Short-term pain but long-term gain in In-store Hotel & Travel operation

    Both revenue and margin of the in-store hotel & travel operation were negatively affected in 1Q20 due to COVID-19 travel restriction. While hotel booking revenue is likely to remain under pressure for the rest of 2020, I believe Meituan's brand recognition as an OTA is strengthened as it builds more relationships with 4-/5-star hotels, which are suffering from low occupancy rates.

    In terms of the competitive landscape, the pandemic has played a positive role. The pandemic has forced a large number of small and medium-sized OTA platforms to withdraw from the market. In March 2020, Baicheng bankrupted and started liquidation. Due to the poor earnings, the share prices of Tuniu were less than US$1 for 30 consecutive trading days from March 16, receiving NASDAQ’s de-listing warning. I expect that with the gradual recovery of demand in 3Q to 4Q20, leading companies in the industry will gain greater market share and profit potential.

    Balance between investments and growth for new initiatives

    1Q20 revenue from new initiatives grew 5% YoY despite the COVID-19 impact due to accelerated online penetration of its grocery delivery business. Continuous investments in grocery/food supply-chain/restaurant management system/bike-sharing may widen the segment's losses in 2Q 2020 or even 2020, but Meituan has demonstrated its ability to control the losses.

    Management guidance and business updates:

    Food delivery business

    In 1Q20, the quality of suppliers improved as many premium restaurants, chain restaurants as well as 5 star hotel restaurants built up their food delivery business for the first time. At end of March, >50% of restaurants on the must eat list have Food Delivery compared to 30% at the end of Dec 2019.

    After the resumption of work starting from Feb 2020, the average daily food delivery order volume gradually returned to 75% of the pre-pandemic level during the last week of March and 90% during the week of May 11.

    As a result of the pandemic, Meituan launched its contactless delivery services, which improved delivery efficiencies.

    Management expects food delivery volume to turn positive in 2Q20. However, Average order value may normalize following the pandemic and monetization rate may continue to be under pressure.

    In-store, hotel & travel

    Supply and demand for In-store business remained sluggish in 1Q20 as majority of in-store categories are involved with close contact with others.

    Meituan recovered faster in the hotel business compared to its peers due to limited exposure to outbound travels and relatively low customer acquisition cost versus its peers. For the domestic room nights, it has recovered to slightly over 50% of pre-pandemic level in late March and 70% pre-pandemic level in the week of May 11.

    Management expects In-store hotel & travel business to still record negative revenue growth in 2Q20.

    New initiatives & others

    The pandemic has negative impacts for Meituan’s bike-sharing, car-hailing and Kuai lV businesses.

    During the quarter, consumer habits for the purchase of fresh produce online and the use of on-demand delivery services for non-meal related goods have been cultivated with relatively low marketing costs.

    In 1Q20, Meituan launched its marketplace model Caidaquan to help with the digitalization of traditional farm markets.

    Although there are near term disruptions and uncertainties, Meituan will continue to invest in its new initiatives, with fresh produce as one of the categories that will be prioritized.

    1Q20 Results Summary

    The company's total transactional users in 1Q20 were 449 million, up 9% YoY; there were 6.1 million active merchants, up 300,000 YoY. The average food delivery order value increased by 14% YoY. The number of annual orders placed per transactional user was 26.2, up 5.6% YoY. During the reporting period, the company achieved revenue of RMB16.75 billion, down 13% YoY; gross profit was RMB5.196 billion; operating loss was RMB1.716 billion and the adjusted loss was RMB216 million. The negative impact of the pandemic was fully reflected in the 1Q reporting period.

    Source: Company announcement; Author’s estimates

    One of the highlights in 1Q20 results was the improvement in average transaction value which was underpinned by high-end restaurants. The pandemic has accelerated the supply of diversified food delivery online platforms. High-end merchants have high operating standards and competitive marketing budgets. The optimization of merchant structure can provide greater opportunity for Meituan to monetize commercially. Thus, I believe that high-end restaurant will increase ticket size which will bring a great improvement on the unit economics model that can help the company to achieve a significant increase in the single-ticket profits on the basis of stable monetization rate and single-ticket delivery costs.

    In terms of industry competition landscape, Meituan food delivery and Eleme Koubei achieved single quarter revenue of RMB9.49 billion and RMB4.84 billion respectively. The revenue ratio of Meituan food delivery to Eleme dropped from 207% in 4Q to 196%, and the industry landscape remained stable.

    Valuation

    The company trades at forward EV/sales of 5.8x which is materially higher than its long-term average of 3.5x.

    Source: Bloomberg

    Key Takeaway

    I firmly believe that the company will be able to return to the margin expansion trajectory soon and maintains strong position in the industry with solid growth outlook. Furthermore, Meituan proves itself that it could withstand competition in local services. However, I also recognize that the recent share price rally might have already priced in all the positive developments in 1Q20 and its long-term growth potential. Thus, I would suggest to wait for a reasonable price to buy this company.
  11. Quasi 10 juni 2021 07:36
    quote:

    Sub!et schreef op 9 juni 2021 22:28:

    Ondertussen verkocht. Winst genomen.
    Eerst Trump, nu Biden, die oorlogje spelen.
    Ziet er voorlopig niet gunstig uit om china aandelen te bezitten.
    Ali Baba ook niet vooruit te branden.
    In de schaduwport houden.
    Play save !

    Bedankt. Ik ga nu niet verkopen met verlies want dit is toch een aandeel op lange termijn. Komt ooit wel goed. Geduld is de boodschap denk ik dan.
31 Posts
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