BultiesBrothers schreef op 25 maart 2021 15:28:
Fitch Ratings Raises Most Global Fertiliser Price Assumptions
Thu 25 Mar, 2021 - 07:52 ET
Fitch Ratings-Moscow/London-25 March 2021: Fitch Ratings has raised all its 2021 and most of its medium- and long-term fertiliser price assumptions on strong year-to-date prices, increased feedstock price assumptions and improved medium-term demand expectations and high utilisation rates.
We have increased all ammonia price assumptions. The largest increases for 2021 and 2022 reflect buoyant market pricing as agricultural demand remains strong, while industrial use should rebound shortly led by Asia. We expect supply to remain restricted in the short and medium term. Feedstock prices (gas) rose due to cold weather in the US, which resulted in supply curtailments for multiple US nitrogen plants. This coincided with Trinidad and Tobago's country-wide capacity curtailments. Utilisation rates at ammonia plants have already been high, and we expect further incremental increases. Ma'aden's 1.1 million tonne ammonia plant's commissioning in 2023 would not materially change supply-demand dynamics, while some of Russia's excess ammonia production will be integrated into urea by 2023.
Increased urea price assumptions reflect higher feedstock prices (coal) so far this year, higher-than-expected demand growth in the short and medium term and increased capacity utilisation rates. Industrial demand for urea fell marginally in 2020 but has fully recovered this year. Agricultural demand remains robust due to favourable planting conditions in most regions and high corn prices, although some US urea production capacity is still halted due to cold weather. New low-cost production capacity set to come on stream in Brunei, the CIS and Nigeria in 2021-2023 will be partially offset by planned closures of high-cost capacity. We expect utilisation rates to remain high.
We have raised our 2021 price assumption for phosphate rock to USD95/tonne reflecting current price dynamics, but have kept the rest of the assumptions unchanged at USD90/tonne. Demand prospects are weak in China due to expensive imported ammonia and sulphur, and stringent policies focused on normalisation of application rates, but strong elsewhere in emerging markets, including Brazil, India, Indonesia, Morocco, Russia and Saudi Arabia. Incremental increases in supply will balance the market.
We have increased all price assumptions for DAP, most significantly for 2021, on strong performance so far this year, increased feedstock prices (ammonia and sulphur) and favourable planting conditions, although we also incorporate incremental supply additions. Medium-term demand trajectories are mixed: strong in the US, stagnating in China and declining in the EU. Below-average utilisation rates of DAP production capacity in China and India will continue to restrict supply growth.
The revised potash price assumptions from USD220/tonne to USD230/tonne reflect our expectations that utilisation rates will remain at the highest levels seen in the past decade until 2023, reinforced by supply discipline and price-over-volume strategy in the most concentrated subsector. Higher medium-term prices also reflect above-average demand prospects for this nutrient, input price inflation, including energy and labour costs, as well as risks of supply curtailments due to flooding. There are no large capacity expansion projects in the pipeline until at least 2025, other than at the CIS-based EuroChem and Belaruskali.
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