ketchup of catch-up schreef op 17 oktober 2019 20:20:
nog een laatste update na het slot van vandaag ontvangen
dat is dus een 5e analist die rapporteert over TT
underlying trends are OK in 2019 and largely unchanged despite the changes in the P/L guidance
looking into 2020 , very likely to be a down year as more limited growth in location technology cannot offset the ongoing decline in consumer
Opex will continue to trend up as TT invests in R&D for future applications
this implies that investors again have to wait for another year to finally see operational leverage come through
( een prima idee om dan een strak inkoopprogramma uit te voeren)
that said we believe the map asset is undervalued by the market given the strong strategic value of such a map asset, but it will take time before this value materializes unless we see strategic action by Management on the asset ( kapitalisatie)
automotive operational revenue shows healthy and even accelerating growth
car sales volumes are coming down, but increased take-rates more than compensate as OEMs provide 'extras' to stimulate sales
operational automotive revenue ( including change in def revenue) shud remain on its >20% growth trajectory
moving parts in Q419: topline will be down as higher automotive revenues cannot compensate for lower consumer
gross margin will be high 70s, so further underlying improvement because of the mix
Opex will increase in Q4 vs Q3 as TT further invests in R&D
change in def revenue will have less impact in Q4 as ytd
putting all this together TT will likely report negative adj eps in Q4
""
short term neutral stance on the stock @ 10 euro pt ( 12 months)
competition:
supported by its transactional map-making platform, we believe there is scope to gain additional share from HERE, while there is still the threat from Google, TT has improved its competitiveness versus Google with an indash infotainment concept and improved user experience
ADAS and autonomous driving could drive solid long term growth, the short term outlook appears weak, with 2020 likely to be a soft patch with no material automotive contracts set to ramp up
"""
nogmaals naar mijn mening, het is echt te hopen dat HG de surplus cash die er zat aanwezig is vol inzet voor een inkoopprogramma in 2020/21, een unieke kans om bij deze slappe outlook toe te slaan.
zo we horen weer na Barcelona , hopelijk een goed onderhoud met MS
voor nu op naar de jaarcijfers.