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TA: Gokje op herstel II

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Analyse door: Royce Tostrams

Royce Tostrams werkt sinds eind jaren zeventig op de financiële markten, onder andere bij Rabobank, Robeco, IRIS en de ING Groep als hoofd van de afdeling Technische Analyse. Hij heeft eind negentiger jaren de Tostrams Groep opgericht. Dit bureau biedt onafhankelijke beleggingsadviezen op basis van technische analyse voor par...

Meer over Royce Tostrams

Recente analyses van Royce Tostrams

  1. 07:50 Nieuwe koopkansen aanstaande als de correctie doorzet 61
  2. 18 apr Olieprijs nog niet uitgebroken 59
  3. 17 apr Paniekbarometer springt op Alert-fase I 79

Reacties

181 Posts
Pagina: «« 1 ... 5 6 7 8 9 10 »» | Laatste | Omlaag ↓
  1. [verwijderd] 2 juni 2019 13:18
    quote:

    Pakka schreef op 2 juni 2019 13:04:

    We wisten al... weekend verrassing...

    Breaking : "China signals it is Willing to return to trade talks"

    Deal is er... Deal komt er...

    DOW 30k...

    Morgen fors up...

    Wat bulshit dit is pure nep nieuws. Moderator graag dit verwijderen dit is nep nieuws.

    Het tegenovergestelde is waar.
  2. positivo73 2 juni 2019 15:25
    Goedemiddag allen,

    Sinds een aantal weken zit ik weer eens short, helaas denken jullie bijna allemaal dat de beurzen morgen flink dalen. Tot vanmorgen dacht ik dat ook, maar als 95% voorgesorteerd heeft op een daling, dan zullen we wel flink gaan stijgen. We zullen het wel zien. Succes in ieder geval.

    Groet Willem
  3. [verwijderd] 2 juni 2019 15:35
    quote:

    Realist2018 schreef op 2 juni 2019 13:18:

    [...]

    Wat bulshit dit is pure nep nieuws. Moderator graag dit verwijderen dit is nep nieuws.

    Het tegenovergestelde is waar.

    Nee China zoekt weer toenadering met de VS en heeft gezegd geen oorlog uit te willen lokken. Het is straks allemaal weet pais en vree. Jammer voor de shorters, want het gaat weer up.
  4. [verwijderd] 2 juni 2019 15:51
    Here is another list of a trader's journey until reaching consistency. Where are you on this list?

    Stage One: The Clueless Trader

    1) Heard of a day trader making millions, or buying options is safe and can make you rich quickly
    2) Got lucky in an earlier stock investment.
    3) After all, how hard can it be? The money sounds appealing and the freedom to be independent sounds attractive
    4) Every trader is optimistic
    5) You open a direct access brokerage account and the sound of Level II, ask/bid, and market makers make trading sound like hi-tech video game
    6) You will buy just to see the market reverse and you will short just as the market starts to rally.
    7) Most of your trades are done emotionally. You buy just because the markets feel strong without any logical reason
    8) You have no clue how the mechanics and psychology of trading works. What's worse? You are not aware that you don't know
    9) Most traders will blow their entire account at this stage.
    10) Mostly you start your trading in a bull market
    11) You will spend more time finding a broker charging least brokerage, how to save tax, and like companies paying dividend and issuing splits and bonuses and less time in learning what trading actually is.
    12) A big majority of people will leave trading and blame the randomness of markets, or say markets are always manipulated
    13) Generally you start with fundamental analysis and put money in "good" companies and don’t forget to watch CNBC
    14) You don’t know what is short selling or have never tried it, no idea of stop loss as well
    15) You are in the unconscious incompetence stage, in this stage your capital is at maximum risk

    Stage Two: The Rookie Trader

    1) In this stage you have lost enough money to realize what you are doing is completely wrong. In other words, you start to realize that you don't know.
    2) You will then devour every trading book available.
    3) Your search for magic indicator and the holy grail starts here
    4) You will memorize every technical pattern known to man. You will read about the ADX, moving averages, Fibonacci lines, pivot points, MACD, Bollinger Bands, channels, etc
    5) You will go through the "help" tab on your data vendor to read about every single technical indicator available
    6) You will plot them on your charts and spend hours looking for an indicator that works
    7) You will be extra confident now, thinking you have found the magical technical indicator
    8) Yet, you still continue to lose money everyday. You realize that your indicators are lagging and that every other new trader is probably looking at the same thing.
    9) You realize that you are the sucker
    10) You are in the conscious incompetence stage

    Stage Three: The Developing Trader

    1) You start to realize the amount of work required and the immense learning curve that you must overcome to understand the markets, maximum pessimism is experienced here
    2) At this point, traders may find it overwhelming and quit. Stronger minded traders will push their motivation harder to start their second spurt for knowledge
    3) Hunger and passion is needed to clear this stage
    4) You will ask a thousand questions and bug every professional trader you meet. You will read a thousand trading articles
    5) You will start paper trading, develop strategies and setups, and define risk parameters for every trade
    6) You will go on a hunt for self-understanding to master your psychological game
    7) You will visualize every possibility on a trade before you take it.
    8) This is the true learning phase. You are trying hard to develop your edge in trading.

    Stage Four: The Determined Trader

    1) This is the stage in which you learn to specialize in certain markets and trading methods
    2) Without realizing it, you have finally found your style of trading after hours of hard work and research. You stick to your method and you improve it
    3) You realize that you need an edge whether its tape reading, price action or being a Fibonacci expert. The important thing is you are slowly transforming yourself into a specialized trader
    4) You test your methods and they seem to work. You gain tremendous market knowledge.
    5) You reflect back on yourself and you can't help but laugh at your foolishness.
    6) Although you have not made enough money to call yourself successful you are proud of your journey and accomplishments
    7) You realize that the Holy Grail is not about technical indicators or price patterns
    8) You calculate risk before profits and place strict money management on all your trades.
    9) You cut losses short and learn to scale out on your winners.
    10) You start accept losing as a natural part of the game
    11) You take high probability trades that you have tested and feel confident about your setups because you understand that trading is a game of probabilities
    12) Your psychological makeup has changed from an amateur mindset to a professional one.

    Stage Five: The Consistent Trader

    1) You rely on your trading method and start taking trades systematically. You try to aim for consistency and are meeting your daily goals often.
    2) You are fully aware of your strengths and weaknesses as a trader.
    3) At times you feel euphoric and at times you feel pain. But you are able to understand your own psychological makeup to control your emotional swings.
    4) You are now able to trade for a living
    5) You have reached the conscious competence stage

    Stage Six: The Expert Trader

    1) In this final stage, you completely understand the markets you are trading. Being involved in it everyday you are aware of every key price level
    2) You understand market concept and are able to predict the direction of the markets a fairly good amount of time.
    3) You pat yourself on your back and take profits as soon as you feel euphoric. You do this because you understand euphoria is the same as emotional trading.
    4) You talk to other traders and realize the development stage they are in
    5) People start asking you for trading advice, you publish a book, and you have a specific trading methodology that represents you!
    6) Taking trades come naturally and you are able to get in and out at the precise price levels based on price action.
    7) Instead of having the markets take your stop out, you exit when you know you are wrong.
    8) You keep your head high but remain humble on the inside. You have now officially graduated the school of the hard knocks
    9) You have reached the unconscious competence stage. You are a successful professional trader now.[/QUOTE]

  5. [verwijderd] 2 juni 2019 15:57

    1. We accumulate information--buying books, going to seminars and researching.
    2. We begin to trade with our 'new' knowledge.
    3. We consistently 'donate' and then realize we may need more knowledge or information.
    4. We accumulate more information.
    5. We switch the commodities we are currently following.
    6. We go back into the market and trade with our 'updated' knowledge.
    7. We get 'beat up' again and begin to lose some of our confidence. Fear starts setting in.
    8. We start to listen to 'outside news' & other traders.
    9. We go back into the market and continue to donate.
    10. We switch commodities again.
    11. We search for more information.
    12. We go back into the market and continue to donate.
    13. We get 'overconfident' & market humbles us.
    14. We start to understand that trading success fully is going to take more time and more knowledge then we anticipated.

    Most People Will Give up at this Point as they Realize Work is Involved

    15. We get serious and start concentrating on learning a 'real' methodology.
    16. We trade our methodology with some success, but realize that something is missing.
    17. We begin to understand the need for having rules to apply our methodology.
    18. We take a sabbatical from trading to develop and research our trading rules.
    19. We start trading again, this time with rules and find some success, but overall we still hesitate when it comes time to execute. We start trading again, this time with rules and find some success, but overall we still hesitate when it comes time to execute.
    20. We add, subtract and modify rules as we see a need to be more proficient with our rules.
    21. We go back into the market and continue to donate.We go back into the market and continue to donate.
    22. We start to take responsibility for our trading results as we understand that our success is in us, not the methodology.
    23. We continue to trade and become more proficient with our methodology and our rules.
    24. As we trade we still have a tendency to violate our rips and our results are still erratic.
    25. We know we are close.
    26. We go back and research our rules.
    27. We build the confidence in our rules and go back into the market and trade.
    28. Our trading results are getting better, but we are still hesitating in executing our rules.
    29. We now see the importance of following our rules as we see the results of our trades when we don't follow them.
    30. We begin to see that our lack of success is within us (a lack of discipline in following the rules because of some kind of fear) and we begin to work on knowing ourselves better.
    31. We continue to trade and the market teaches us more and more about ourselves.
    32. We master our methodology and trading rules.
    33. We begin to consistently make money. We begin to consistently make money.
    34. We get a little overconfident and the market humbles us.
    35. We continue to learn our lessons.
    36. We stop thinking and allow our rules to trade for us (trading becomes boring, but successful) and our trading account continues to grow as we increase our contract size.
    37. We are making more money then we ever dreamed to be possible.
    38. We go on with our lives and accomplish many of the goals we had always dreamed of[/QUOTE]

  6. forum rang 6 In Holland stond een Huis... 2 juni 2019 20:07
    quote:

    Realist2018 schreef op 1 juni 2019 12:39:

    China en Mexico gaan de VS hard aanpakken
    Zelf vereacht ik dat de handels oorlogbin een echte oorlog tussen de VS en China en Rusland zal ontwikkelen. De Derde wereld oorlog gaat beginnen.
    Goh echt..??!

    Eigen ondervinding of Copycat..;)

  7. forum rang 6 ttroo 2 juni 2019 21:57
    Het geruzie tussen Amerika en de Rest of the World gaat door. Stieren kunnen Trump niets verwijten. Ze liepen met hem mee, vonden zijn gedrag niet altijd okee, maar omhoog was wel lekker meelopen. Nu zijn gedrag wat negativiteit ontwikkelt mag dat geen probleem zijn.

    Olie lastig. Brent ik zag volgens mij $63 en $64 wel wat steun. Doorzakken daar kan een $58 op de borden laten zien. En in een zeer negatieve scenario kan er zelfs een mid $40 op de borden komen. Eerst morgen maar eens afwachten. Of Brent kan herstellen.

    Nifty Fifty krijgt het mogelijk morgen wat zwaar. En de nationale munt van India mogelijk ook. Maar Nifty Fifty is de laatste jaren wel fantastisch gegaan. Vermoedelijk beter dan de Amerikaanse beurzen. En toen ging iemand ingrijpen.

    Verder heb ik weinig te melden behalve Besi. Die moet de 20 euro houden! Onder de 20 kan het snel lager. De 16 kan dan weer worden opgezocht.

    O ja. Bossie Rode Rozen. Boskalis. Drama. Fugro. Waarom wilde je niet verkering met die Bossie Rode Rozen? Dat was toch veel beter voor de beurskoers! Nee, dit is geweldig. Kom aub niet met slecht nieuws of zelfs met een aandelen emissie. Het zal de koers van Fugro niet goed doen. Deutsche Bankie. Meer een Bankje geworden. Nog maar net boven de zes euro. Als de shorters daar nog een keer paniek ik kan duwen. Dan houdt het daar ook op. Aperam. Die 21 euro lijkt het te houden. Mittal. Drama. De helft er af in no time.

    Maar ik begrijp de posting. Gokje op herstel. Want vele fondsen liggen (te) zwaar oversold en dat doen ze al langer dan een paar dagen. Maar een crash ligt dit keer ook om de hoek. Zeker zolang de politieke omstandigheden op wereldschaal steeds uitdagender wordt.
  8. Dead cat bounce 2 juni 2019 22:26
    quote:

    snuf13 schreef op 2 juni 2019 12:50:

    Gokken op herstel....... de waarheid achterhaalt het wel ! :-))

    Brexit.... Oorlog Iran.....Handelsoorlog......dreiging vanuit China..... rentes die omlaag gaan.....

    Ja hoor, het gaat beslist een enorm feest worden, haal de hoedjes maar vast uit de kast!!!!!
    vergeet de verkiezingen niet in de vs
    Daar gaat de zooi ook van op hold

    470 is mooi voor de AEX
181 Posts
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