SNSN schreef op 9 februari 2018 18:54:
[...]
Ok, the stock has (almost) hit the
'next target' ~145 (it's just a matter of time to remove 'olmost').
Actually we have just 'business as usual' --> the stock just follows (objective) company fundamentals & market dynamics.
As an 'investment fund', the stock is still highly overpriced (P/E > 30). Above ~120 it's just a playground for mid-size prof specs.
Just for those like long-term FA --> just don't forget that any further IR-rising (necessary Fed's policy on a 'short end'), would result in FI on a 'long-end' (corp. bonds in particular) providing almost the
same yield as a 'good stock', but at a
'much lower risk'. It's just about the 'risk-return' trade-off optimization, nothing more. So far, the P/E ratio for an
'extremely good stock' (let's say, like 'asml') must go down seriously to be able to compete with FI corps. Take into account that the 'state' would also need to borrow at higher rates (compensating 'losses' due to recent 'tax cut' of ~1.5 bln). So, one can expect some kind of 'competitions' (between states and corps, which also will need to borrow at higher rates, paying higher IR as almost all corp. bonds have 'variable rates'). But, don't worry, it's just one dimension of a complex 'multi-dimensional' picture.
So, if briefly, for (normal) investors the most important is not just what 'nice company' may do in principle, but whether the particular equity-investments do provide the best 'risk-return trade off'. Given the real economy state and expectations, the 'asml' stock at current P/E ratio doesn't prove to be really competitive on short/mid/long-terms horizons (read just above).
For those like just TA --> the 'final target' (for current story) is ~142 (the s-zone ~143-141 - read our posts from last Oct-Nov).
As for the PHLX Semiconductor Sector Index, if the mt-support is (definitely) broken --> the prob is high the current 'tech bubble' will burst --> getting first (though weak) support at ~1126.40.
As for the 'aex' market, the (weak) s-zone is just around ~505.
Good weekend everybody. Just do take care.