Natte krant schreef op 2 november 2017 11:24:
Van NIPKapitaal:
TomTom
Feedback AND Capital Markets Day
The facts: Yesterday, AND International, a small competitor of TomTom (FY16
sales EUR 7m, net cash position EUR 4m, 95 employees), held its first ever Capital
Markets day to introduce investors to its mid-to long-term strategy. Some 15
investors and interested parties attended. According to CEO Hugo van der Linde,
an important pillar of the future roadmap encompasses the production of a HD map,
enabling the company to profit from the upcoming autonomous driving trend.
Autonomous driving requires HD maps that not only provide centimeter-level
accuracy but also allow for accurate and almost near-time updates.
Our analysis: AND recently entered into a partnership with tier 1 supplier
Continental with the aim of producing a HD map based on crowdsourcing and
vehicle sensors. Unfortunately, CEO van der Linde remained rather vague on the
specifics of how to achieve this objective given AND’s resources. AND indicated
that it expects to have a market-ready HD map in 3-5 years (do disclosure about
which countries or regions), whereby the pricing model will shift from a map license
per vehicle to a subscription-based model.
Despite management’s optimism we are of the opinion that AND, despite the link-up
with Continental (which also has a much more important collaboration with
Intel/Mobileye, Here and BMW to achieve the same goal) has neither the technical
and R&D capability nor the financial strength to become a credible player in this
field. In addition, AND is not a well-known supplier to the automotive industry
making it harder to win contracts. Moreover, OEMs are the gatekeepers of the data
that AND and Continental will require to produce HD maps. In other words, we do
not see AND as a company that will turn out to be a credible competitor of TomTom
in the Automotive segment.
Conclusion & Action: AND’s Capital Markets day revealed a very ambitious
company (unfortunately with limited resources) that remained vague on the specifics
of the execution part of its strategy. Given the ecosystems that are being developed
and the players that act in those ecosystems (global OEMs such as BMW, VW and
Ford, Tier1s such as Bosch, Harman and Continental and the semi players
(Intel/Mobileye, Qualcom/NXP and Nvidia), we do not think AND can and will play a
material role and certainly not one that could impact TomTom’s business model. We
rate TomTom shares neutral because of valuation (the share price is close to our
price target) but also because we are uncertain about the growth outlook for
Telematics and because there is uncertainty in the medium and longer term in the
Automotive segment (ASP development and new entrants).
Waar is die Drijvert nou mee bezig? Vragen wij (lol rabo) ons wel eens af...