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Aandeel Galapagos AEX:GLPG.NL, BE0003818359

  • 27,020 19 apr 2024 15:30
  • -0,360 (-1,31%) Dagrange 26,860 - 27,120
  • 29.735 Gem. (3M) 81,1K

Galapagos augustus 2017

3.476 Posts
Pagina: «« 1 ... 84 85 86 87 88 ... 174 »» | Laatste | Omlaag ↓
  1. avantiavanti 11 augustus 2017 07:58
    Morgan Stanley update na webcast IPF 10/8

    Stock Rating Overweight
    Price Target $92.00


    Nuances of GLPG1690 Data Drive Investor Perception

    Investors are split on the meaningfulness of the initial GLPG1690 data with bulls pointing to proof-of-concept and platform validation while bears see this as a messy small study with noise greater than the signal. We believe there is a signal, but agree that replication in IPF is the key risk.

    Additional detail on GLPG1690 from mgt. call: Mgt. held a call to discuss the topline PhIIa FLORA data released yesterday for autotaxin inhibitor GLPG1690 in IPF. Our first take on the data can be found here. Mgt. provided details on baseline characteristics, efficacy, safety, and some commentary on future development plans.

    Key takeaways from the call: (1) The 600mg dose was chosen for FLORA given this dose led to an 80%-90% reduction in plasma LPA in the PhI trial; (2) With regards to the differences in IPF duration and % predicted FVC at baseline (below) between the placebo and treatment groups, mgt. did not believe these impacted study results given the 12-week duration; (3) Mgt. clarified that there were no interpolations for missing data (only available measurements were included), and noted that FVC data (which was reported using mean values) would be comparable (or slightly better) if median values had been used; (4) No lab abnormalities and no exacerbations were reported during the study; (5) While details of future trials are yet to be finalized, mgt. expects to test more than one dose in a 1+ year study. The next study could be pivotal, but mgt. believes more than one pivotal study may be required. Mgt. expects future testing to evaluate GLPG1690 as monotherapy as well as add-on to standard-of-care; (6) Full FLORA data will be presented at the American Thoracic Society (ATS) Conference in May 2018; (7) Mgt. indicated that the p-value was much greater than 0.05 for the 12 week FVC measurement. On FVC outcomes (see Exhibit 2 below) mgt. noted that individual patient outcomes were generally consistent and the majority of drug patients had a positive FVC. Additionally, mgt. does not believe there was a mechanistic issue driving the FVC increase and subsequent decrease in weeks 0-4 and 4-8, respectively, in the treated population; (8) GLPG1690 IP includes a composition of matter patent that expires in 2034 and is eligible for a five-year extension; (9) The company is testing GLPG1690 in multiple animal models, based on which a second indication will be disclosed.

    Bull/bear debate to continue; ATS next key datapoint for IPF: Our overall conclusion is that there is a signal in this initial data. We base that view on the fact that despite the noise in the drug arm, the mean/medians did not fall below baseline while placebo declined to a similar spot as other larger PhIII IPF studies. That said, the most persuasive bear argument - that changes in the composition of patients who comprised the FVC measurements at each timepoint make the data hard to interpret - is valid and does increase the risk of replication in a larger PhIIb/III study. We await more details from mgt. on specifics around the design of future studies, and also look forward to full data from FLORA at ATS 2018. Additional upcoming catalysts for Galapagos include initiation of the first CF triple combo in patients by YE17, PhI data for MOR106 in atopic dermatitis in 3Q17, and DARWIN3 data at ACR in November 2017.
  2. [verwijderd] 11 augustus 2017 08:08
    Degroof Petercam plakt een waarde van net geen 5 miljard euro (96 euro per aandeel) op het bedrijf en is daarmee iets positiever dan de gemiddelde analist. Het beurshuis splitst de waarde als volgt op:

    2,5 miljard euro voor filgotinib, een potentieel medicijn tegen reuma, de ziekte van Crohn, psoriasis en een reeks andere ontstekingsziektes. Analisten schatten de piekomzet op miljarden euro's. Partner in dat alles is het Amerikaanse Gilead. Het reumaonderzoek zit in de laatste studiefase met duizenden patiënten.

    662 miljoen euro voor het onderzoek naar de taaislijm- ziekte (mucoviscidose) waarvoor nog steeds geen enkele medicatie voorhanden is. Nog dit jaar worden - in samenwerking met Abbvie - de eerste patiënten behandeld met een drievoudige medicijnen- cocktail. De grote concurrent hier is het Amerikaanse Vertex dat minstens een half jaar voorsprong heeft.

    229 miljoen euro voor GLPG1690, een potentieel medicijn om de dodelijke longziekte IPF te behandelen. Volgens een eerste studie stopt het medicijn de aftakeling van de longen. (waardering voor de positieve studieresultaten)
    1,5 miljard euro cash. Het bedrijf beschikt over een enorme berg cash waarmee het overnames wil doen of onderzoeksprogramma's van andere bedrijven opkopen.

    Bron: De Tijd 11 augustus 2017
  3. avantiavanti 11 augustus 2017 08:09
    Goldman Sachs update

    Galapagos NV (GLPG.AS): Answering investor questions

    We have received a number of investor questions on Galapagos' idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis data and potential next steps. We have also spoken to Galapagos since its investor call. We continue to view the data as very positive for Galapagos. Our thoughts are as follows:

    Our view on the data and its significance: We have received some questions from investors on how to interpret the clear trend shown by the data, in the context of the result not reaching statistical significance. The trial was not powered for statistical significance, which explains why the p value at 12 weeks was not at the threshold for statistical significance. Nonetheless, we believe that the clear trend towards disease stabilisation for patients on active treatment is highly encouraging, and indeed unprecedented for other IPF drugs.

    Patients excluded from the FVC analysis do not raise particular concerns: We have had a number of questions from investors on why the FVC data presented by Galapagos excluded 2 of the 17 patients on treatment at week 8 and 4 of the patients at week 12. We understand that these exclusions were required by American Thoracic Society measurement criteria. Under these, to measure FVC, the patient is given eight attempts to provide a forced exhalation reading (this is viewed as a "practical upper limit"). If a patient cannot provide a forced exhalation three times from the eight attempts (e.g. a failed attempt might be because they cough), the measurement is excluded. The reason for this is that after more than eight forced exhalations, the patient could tire and FVC could drop, reducing the reliability of the data. Therefore, we do not believe that the exclusions raise concerns for the data.

    Our view on the next steps from here: On the call, management discussed its openness to whether this drug is used as an add-on therapy or as a standalone agent. Management stated that the next trial "could be pivotal". We have subsequently discussed Galapagos' R&D plans with management. Our understanding is that its intention is first to start a trial of GLPG1690 as an add-on therapy (e.g. to Roche's Esbriet). Assuming that this trial takes around one year to recruit, and patients receive study medication for one year, we could see a read out in 1H 2020. We understand that Galapagos will also investigate the drug as a single agent. This could potentially be investigated by the inclusion of an arm with single agent GLPG1690 in the first trial, or alternatively with an additional trial of GLPG1690 (head to head against a standard of care drug). On pricing, management believes that it could achieve pricing similar to Esbriet, even as an add-on therapy, if the drug shows significant incremental benefit.

    Galapagos' strategic intention with the asset: We understand from management that Galapagos intends to develop the asset itself. We would therefore view an outlicensing event as unlikely. We support this stance as we believe that Galapagos has comfortable financial capacity to finance the trials (€1.3 bn in cash), and retaining 100% economic rights to the asset would seem the best way to maximise value. In our sum of the parts model, we had valued this asset at €6 per share, with peak sales before probability adjustment of $817 mn. If the drug is ultimately successful, on our forecasts it could be worth €42 per share, i.e., almost two thirds of Galapagos' current market capitalisation.

    We are Buy rated on Galapagos with a 12-month target price of €94 derived from a SOTP DCF based value of €89 per share (85% weighting), and an M&A valuation of €119 per share (15% weighting). Our M&A valuation is calculated by: (1) applying a 7.5% WACC to our stand-alone DCF (assumed WACC of a larger potential acquirer), rather than the 10% WACC we assume for Galapagos, and (2) assuming 90% cost synergies (as we believe an acquirer would acquire Galapagos for its IP rather than the infrastructure). Key downside risks to our view and price target are outcomes of clinical trials, ability to recruit patients into later-stage cystic fibrosis trials, and potential value destructive M&A.

  4. MtBaker 11 augustus 2017 08:12
    Stock response looks appropriate: GLPG was up over 20% pre-market but then
    faded after the conference call to finish up ~8% on the day. We think the final reaction
    was more appropriate as the market digested the fact that this was encouraging early
    data from a small study but data that does still need to be confirmed in larger trials.
    That said, the positive data to date for GLPG1690 does help support the strength of the
    GLPG drug discovery platform, affirming the company’s ability to develop whollyowned
    assets and potentially driving increased M&A interest in GLPG.
  5. MtBaker 11 augustus 2017 08:23
    We increase our target price for GLPG shares to $124 from $108 (pg. 5),
    adding in GLPG1690 in IPF following proof-of-concept data and
    announcement of a potentially pivotal study to be initiated in IPF. Galapagos
    reported positive results from the Phase 2a FLORA study of GLPG1690 in IPF
    last night and hosted a call this morning. Data from the double-blind,
    placebo-controlled study demonstrated that patients treated with GLPG1690
    experienced disease stabilization compared with continues decline in FVC in
    the placebo arm. These data represent compelling POC in difficult to treat IPF,
    particularly in light of the target and preclinical work. GLPG1690 may tap into
    a market where approved drugs (pirfenidone and nintedanib) with limited
    safety/efficacy profile have annual sales of >$1.0 bn. GLPG1690 represents
    $16 of our $124 TP. (Fig 7, pg. 5) Next up: Results of the ALBATROSS
    Phase 2 study in F508del heterozygous CF patients in combo with Kalydeco
  6. forum rang 5 RW1963 11 augustus 2017 08:44
    quote:

    holenbeer schreef op 10 augustus 2017 20:26:

    [...]
    Ach Hans,

    Dat is het nare met uitkeringstrekkers: niet alleen vergeten ze dat anderen moeten werken om hun uitkering te betalen. Ze zeggen er niet eens netjes dankjewel voor.
    dongen, graag gedaan, deze maand krijg je ok weer van ons.
    Velen kiezen daar niet voor! Wees blij dat jij niet in die positie zit.
  7. toedenoedelie 11 augustus 2017 08:56
    quote:

    Piddybull schreef op 10 augustus 2017 23:32:

    [...]

    Deze post verdrinkt tussen alle andere maar raakt me bijzonder.
    Of je bent jong of niet zo schatrijk , maar de positieve noot in je tekst brengt ons terug met de voetjes op de grond.
    Tevreden zijn met wat je hebt is onbetaalbaar !

    Dank U wel Piddybull. Ik ben niet schatrijk en fijn dat U mijn mening deelt.
    Ik wens U veel succes, plezier en een goede gezondheid toe.
  8. aston.martin 11 augustus 2017 09:12


    KBC Securities verhoogt koersdoel

    Koersdoel naar 88,00 euro.

    (ABM FN) KBC Securities heeft het koersdoel op Galapagos verhoogd van 80,00 naar 88,00 euro met een ongewijzigde koopaanbeveling. Dit bleek vrijdag uit een analistenrapport.

    De koersdoelverhoging volgt op de "positieve" onderzoeksresultaten waarmee het Belgisch-Nederlandse biofarmaceutische bedrijf eerder deze week kwam voor een potentiële behandeling tegen idiopathische longfibrose.

    Analist Sandra Cauwenberghs verwacht, naast de kans op succes met het middel tegen idiopathische longfibrose, die door de marktvorser werd verhoogd van 20 naar 30 procent, ook dat Galapagos het middel zelf verder kan ontwikkelen en naar de markt kan brengen. Eerder nog werd uitgegaan van een verdere ontwikkeling en lancering in samenwerking met een partner. Daarnaast is de analist te spreken over het feit dat GLPG1690 de status weesgeneesmiddel heeft. Dit kenmerk kwalificeert een ziekte als zeldzaam en kan leiden tot bijvoorbeeld extra subsidies en een versnelde marktlancering.

    Cauwenberghs verwacht dat als het longfibrosemiddel succesvol verder zal worden ontwikkeld, het in 2021 of 2022 op de markt kan komen, met een piekomzet van 850 miljoen euro op basis van een marktpenetratie van circa 25 procent.

    Het aandeel Galapagos sloot donderdag 8,3 procent hoger op 67,83 euro aan Euronext en won met de notering aan de Nasdaq 10,8 procent tot 81,06 dollar.

3.476 Posts
Pagina: «« 1 ... 84 85 86 87 88 ... 174 »» | Laatste |Omhoog ↑

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