Topperke schreef op 31 januari 2019 21:45:
www.bushveldminerals.com/wp-content/u...Interessante analyse van Bushveld. (pure vanadium speler)
Ik haal er enkele dingen uit:
1. A widening structural deficit has driven a step-change in prices
over the past two years, and, despite a recent correction, they remain high by
historic levels. We believe a material increase in global supply will be needed to
attain market balance, and this will take time to develop. Vanadium prices thus
look set to remain firm for longer than previously envisaged, and we have
upwardly adjusted our forecasts accordingly
2. The impact of vanadium co-product supply
constraints has been exacerbated by increasing intensity of usage in China,
opening a structural deficit and sending prices to an all-time high in Q4 2018.
We think significant additional supply is needed to restore lasting balance, but
existing production expansions, restarts of idled capacity and, particularly, new
projects will take time to roll out. We therefore believe the market will remain
in deficit over the near-to-medium term, with vanadium prices resultingly
remaining firm by historic standards for the next few years at least
3. Amongst other vanadium end uses, there has been increasing interest in the energy
storage sector, where vanadium redox-flow battery (VRFB) technology appears well
suited to help solve the issue of grid-scale storage of energy sourced from
renewables. According to vanadium industry technical committee Vanitec, the
amount of vanadium consumed in energy-storage applications has doubled in the
past 12-18 months. If global growth targets for energy storage are met, and assuming
VRFB technology continues to capture a material share of the market (industry
experts predict 15-25%), Bushveld estimates this sector could end up accounting for at least 20% of global vanadium demand, compared with just 2-3% currently.