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TA: Verrassing

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Auteur: Geert-Jan Nikken

Geert-Jan Nikken is dé technisch analist van IEX.nl. Gevraagd en ongevraagd levert hij zijn commentaar bij koersontwikkelingen aan de hand van grafieken. Nikken begon als trainee bij ABN Amro. Samen met zijn collega Gökhan Erem, met wie hij jaren een onafscheidelijk duo vormde, maakte hij de overstap naar Generale Bank om...

Meer over Geert-Jan Nikken

Recente artikelen van Geert-Jan Nikken

  1. apr '07 TA: Adieu 168
  2. mrt '07 TA: Kou in de lucht 280
  3. mrt '07 TA: Verrassing 271

Reacties

271 Posts
Pagina: «« 1 ... 4 5 6 7 8 ... 14 »» | Laatste | Omlaag ↓
  1. [verwijderd] 29 maart 2007 14:07
    quote:

    kwaheri schreef:

    [quote=domireclame]
    [quote=bp5ah]
    Er schijnen nog mensen te zijn die handelen op de adviezen van GJN ?

    Lachertje ..., hij kan goed tellen overigens. Boven 507 kan je naar 509 en onder 505 kan je naar 404, onder 200, kan je naar 199 en naar 201.

    Ik vind dat GJN prima analyses afgeeft. Hij is ook een van de weinigen die voorbeurs zijn visie geeft en vaak duidelijk richting kiest, met koersdoelen daarbij. Als het eens niet helemaal duidelijk is of we gaan stijgen of dalen, dan zegt hij dat ook. Je hoeft je er niet aan te houden, maar ik doe dat vaak wel en dat levert me een leuk salaris op.
    GJN, ga aub door.

    Als je het zo ziet, prima, graag wel een visie die wat duidelijker is en waar ik meer mee kan verdienen, daar lijk je wel geschikt voor.
    Afbranden en kotsen kunnen we allemaal.

  2. [verwijderd] 29 maart 2007 14:44
    quote:

    Erik 006 1/2 schreef:

    medelijden met de shorters onder ons;)
    ....dat valt de komende dagen nog te bezien! Er lijkt zoals GJ al aangaf weerstand rond de 512 en het is maar zeer de vraag of het reageren op niet significant goede cijfers uitzicht biedt op een forse doorbraak naar boven...
  3. [verwijderd] 29 maart 2007 14:46
    Gebakken lucht & Window dressing.
    Cijfers van afgelopen jaar, wacht maar tot de cijfers van dit jaar komen ;)

    U.S. Economy Grew at a 2.5% Annual Rate in the Fourth Quarter

    By Shobhana Chandra

    March 29 (Bloomberg) -- The U.S. economy grew at an annual rate of 2.5 percent in the fourth quarter, hobbled by slumps in home construction and business investment that show no sign of ending.

    The final revision to gross domestic product, the sum of all goods and services produced, compares with a 2.2 percent rate reported last month, the Commerce Department said today in Washington. A measure of inflation watched by the Federal Reserve rose less than forecast.

    Increasing subprime loan defaults and foreclosures threaten to deepen a housing slowdown that last quarter was already the worst in more than 15 years. Coupled with a drop in corporate profits and less business investment, the economy may not be able to attain Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke's forecast of ``moderate'' growth.

    ``Capital spending is in a funk, and the housing recession is ongoing,'' Cary Leahey, senior economist at Decision Economics in New York, said before the report. ``Growth could be slower this quarter.''

    For all of last year, the economy grew 3.3 percent, compared with 3.2 percent in 2005. The third quarter's growth rate was 2 percent.

    Economists surveyed by Bloomberg News had forecast fourth- quarter growth at 2.2 percent, according to the median of 75 estimates. Estimates ranged from 2 percent to 2.5 percent.

    Home construction fell at an annual rate of 19.8 percent, the most since 1991, after an 18.7 percent drop the previous three months. The decline subtracted 1.2 percentage points from growth.

    Housing Slump

    The housing slowdown remains one of the biggest concerns this year, economists said. New-home sales unexpectedly fell last month to the lowest level in almost seven years, a government report this week showed. While February housing starts rebounded in February from a nine-year low, building permits, a sign of future construction, declined.

    Rising defaults by subprime mortgage borrowers, or those with poor or limited credit histories, are damping prospects for a quick housing recovery. More foreclosures increase the possibility that builders and sellers will have to compete with a bigger glut of properties on the market, pushing down prices.

    Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke yesterday said the damage from the mortgage crisis would be limited and maintained the central bank's growth forecasts.

    The subprime fallout ``is likely to be contained,'' and ``the economy appears likely to continue to expand at a moderate pace over coming quarters,'' Bernanke told lawmakers yesterday.

    Lennar Earnings

    So far, builders see no improvement. Lennar Corp., the largest U.S. homebuilder by revenue, this week reported a 73 percent plunge in fiscal first quarter earnings, and said it may miss its 2007 profit goal.

    ``Market conditions are very difficult across the country,'' Miami-based Lennar's Chief Executive Officer Stuart Miller said on a conference call. ``It is unclear today where there is another shoe to drop.''

    A bigger increase in inventory than previously estimated was the main reason for today's GDP revision. Stockpiles rose at an annual rate of $22.4 billion, compared with last month's $17.3 billion estimate. Inventories grew at a $55.4 billion pace in the third quarter. Inventories subtracted 1.2 percentage points from economic growth, less than the 1.4 percentage points previously estimated.

    Companies also tightened their purse strings. Business fixed investment, which includes spending on commercial construction as well as equipment and software, fell at an annual rate of 3.1 percent in the fourth quarter, compared with a 10 percent increase the prior quarter.

    Less Investment

    The same reluctance to invest this quarter may continue to hinder growth, economists said.

    Orders for durable goods excluding transportation unexpectedly fell for a second month in February, Commerce reported yesterday. Orders for non-defense capital goods excluding aircraft, a proxy for future business investment, also declined, the report showed.

    ``First-quarter growth will be weaker,'' Robert Mellman, an economist at JPMorgan Chase & Co. in New York, said before the report. ``February numbers looked pretty terrible across the board.''

    Consumer spending, which accounts for more than two-thirds of the economy, remained the one bright spot. It expanded at a 4.2 percent annual pace in the fourth quarter after a 2.8 percent gain in the third quarter. Consumer spending added 2.9 percentage points to growth.

    Profits Dropped

    Today's GDP report included a first look at corporate profits for the quarter. Earnings adjusted for the value of inventories and depreciation of capital expenditures, known as profits from current production, fell 0.3 percent to an annual rate of $1.65 trillion. Profits rose 3.9 percent in the third quarter. For all of last year, profits were up 21 percent.

    ``Less forward momentum in corporate profits, combined with a mixed outlook for growth in 2007, is expected to put a damper on the growth of business investment in 2007,'' said Brian Bethune, an economist at Global Insight Inc. in Lexington, Massachusetts.

    Former Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan, citing concern about slowing profit margins, said this month there's a ``one-third probability'' of a recession this year and the current expansion won't have the staying power of its decade-long predecessor.

    For Fed policy makers, inflation is a ``greater risk'' than slowing growth, Bernanke said yesterday.

    Today's report showed the core personal consumption expenditures price index, a measure of prices tied to consumer spending and excluding energy and food, rose at an annual rate of 1.8 percent last quarter, down from a previous estimate of 1.9 percent. The index, which is watched by the Fed, rose at a 2.2 percent rate in the third quarter.

    The overall GDP price index rose at an annual rate of 1.7 percent in the fourth quarter, compared with a 1.9 percent third- quarter gain.

    To contact the report on this story: Shobhana Chandra in Washington schandra1@bloomberg.net

    Last Updated: March 29, 2007 08:30 EDT

    www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601...
  4. [verwijderd] 29 maart 2007 14:58
    quote:

    Erik 006 1/2 schreef:

    medelijden met de shorters onder ons;)
    Ik totaal geen, ze komen altijd super nega uit de hoek en denken de wijsgheid in pacht te hebben.
    Ik vindt een goed pak slaag voor shorters welleens leuk. Het begint ook bijna een sport te worden om te shorten, een mode verschijnsel, dat het doel voorbij schiet en soms enorme schade toebrengt aan het vertrouwen van mensen en daarmee aan de economie.
271 Posts
Pagina: «« 1 ... 4 5 6 7 8 ... 14 »» | Laatste |Omhoog ↑

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